Four things we’ve learned about the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays

We’re a week into the Blue Jays 2024 season. Here’s what we’ve learned about this team, so far.

The 2023 Blue Jays were predictably unpredictable. After an 18-10 first month, they rattled off an 11-17 May and kept ping-ponging back and forth between boom and bore for the rest of the season.

They’d show flashes, like a 20-1 win over the Rays in May and a pair of 13-run performances against Boston and Colorado near the end of the year. But then, the Jays would go right back to the no-hitters and offensive stinkers (they were shut out 11 times last year, woof).

Through a week, this year’s Jays are riding the same rollercoaster, from 9-2 wins to 10-run, no-hit losses. Last year’s coaster ended with a slow, crushing crawl in the end. So, the best the Blue Jays can hope is the 2024 season ends on an up.

It’s time to have a KK discussion.

Last year, Kiermaier was one of Toronto’s most important players. The 34-year-old posted his best offensive season since 2017, stayed mostly healthy, and racked up nearly four WAR across his 129 games. But so far this year, KK looks… dare I say it… old — at least in the box.

Kiermaier’s hard-hit rate is down 8 percent, his strikeout rate up nearly 10 percent, and his expected batting average sits down at just .151. And from my eye test, the at-bats just haven’t looked competitive. A lot of getting behind early and swinging at bad pitches off the zone.

Maybe the back tightness that held him out of Friday’s game is a partial explanation. But, this is a guy who’s had injury issues across most of the last five seasons and has played over 1000 games across his 12 MLB seasons, with plenty of those games on turf. Like all players, he’s going to hit the offensive wall eventually. Kiermaier still seems like a lock for Gold Glove defence, but the Blue Jays need something out of his bat to justify regular play.

In the Blue Jays’ first seven games of this season, they’ve rolled out three different third basemen and two separate second basemen. We knew coming into the season that IKF, Cavan Biggio, Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, and Justin Turner were all going to get some run at 2B and 3B. So far, it looks like John Schneider’s trying all the combinations.

It’s going to be a difficult balance for Schneider and the lineup makers in the first month of the season, trying to balance figuring out who’s hot and getting all those infielders at-bats. But the Jays could really use at least one of those guys snatching an everyday infield position and running with it.

I know the fans want Davis Schneider to be that guy, but I think Ernie Clement has got a shot, too. Ernie hasn’t snatched an extra-base hit yet this season, but he’s drilling balls into gaps and has just one strikeout in 15 plate appearances. There’s a value in that consistency.

In an ideal world, I think Clement gets 100+ games at second base, but the Jays haven’t started him even once at the position this year. It seems like the team’s more comfortable with him at third, and that’s probably because they grade Schneider and Biggio (and maybe even IKF too) better at second, which will soak up most of the ABs at that position.

I think we underrate how important Danny Jansen is to this Blue Jays lineup. Whenever the 28-year-old backstop has been hurt the last few seasons, everyone talks about how important he is to game-planning defensively, and the added stress his injuries add to Alejandro Kirk.

But when his bat is not in the lineup, Toronto suffers most. This may shock you, but on a per-game basis, Jansen has been the team’s BEST hitter over the last three seasons. His .855 OPS over that stretch is higher than Vlad, Bichette, and Springer’s. There’s a real argument to be made that the Blue Jays’ best bat is currently on the IL.

Just look at the middle of Toronto’s lineup right now. Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho, and Kiermaier all have OPS under .500 entering Friday. The Blue Jays need a healthy Jansen hitting behind the big boys. But with his injury history, that’s a big ask.