Get To Know The Sellers: Colorado Rockies
2 years ago
The Toronto Blue Jays need another third baseman as well as a starting pitcher. In a series of posts focused on bad teams that will more than likely be sellers ahead of the trade deadline, I will be discussing trade scenarios that I think work for both teams.
In this post, I will be focused on my NL team, the Colorado Rockies. They have screwed me out of twenty bucks before as I bet that they’d beat the Dodgers in game 163 in 2018. So just like how Cam stole my money, could the Blue Jays steal two players from the Rockies? I will be answering four questions: Why the Rockies, why the 3rd baseman, why the pitcher and lastly, what would it take to get them?
Why the Rockies?
So for starters, what makes the Rockies an appealing trade partner? Well for starters, they traded the best third basemen in all of baseball along with 51 million bucks to St. Louis for Austin Gomber, Mateo Gil, Elehuris Montero, Tony Lacey and Jake Sommers. This makes the Donaldson for Merryweather trade look like the best trade in the history of the MLB. No top prospects were going back the other way. In fact, the highest-rated prospect according to Fangraphs was Elehuris Montero at 16th. As the kids say, “oof”.
So what two players would I be looking at if I were the Jays GM? Trevor Story and Germán Márquez. Story may not have played any 3B in the majors, but while developing in the Rockies system he played 3B as well as 2B. Márquez is a 26-year-old pitcher who has shown that he could grow into a fringe 2 in the rotation while already being a great pitcher on a fantastic contract.
Why Trevor Story?
Trevor Story is a pending unrestricted free agent which significantly hurts his trade value for the Rockies. This season has also shaped up to be his worst since his sophomore season in 2017. Thus far, he’s batting .261 (down from his usual average of around .290) and currently has five home runs; however, the only time he hasn’t reached 24 dingers was during the shortened season. Plus, he has foot speed as he’s stolen 7 bases with 27 being his career-high.
He’s not perfect though, as the man they call “Bedtime Story” has a history of striking out… Like a lot. He struck out a whopping 191 times in 2017, the 29th most strikeouts for a season. He finished that horrid 2017 season with a 34.4 K% and career lows in batting average, OBP and home runs (excluding the shortened season in 2020). As he’s improved, his K% has dropped to 23% for the 2021 season.
Another potential issue with Story is that he’s a shortstop and not a third baseman. This isn’t all bad though, because according to his 2016 Pipeline summary, he had played third base in the minors. Plus, I believe he can make the transition to the position as he’s accumulated a 57 Defensive Runs Saved in his six-year career. Even in the 2017 season, his fielding made up for his batting as he had a 12 DRS. Thus far in 2021, he has a -3 DRS which would be by far his worst of his career. Perhaps a change of scenery would help?
Trading for him and moving him to third base would be a smart move as his value is relatively low compared to previous seasons and he likely is capable of playing the position.
Why Germán Márquez?
Márquez is good as if you ignore his current ERA of 4.82, you will see that the man can pitch. Since 2019, the 26-year-old is one of only 18 pitchers that has logged over 300 IP. With 300 IP being the sample size, he has the worst ERA of 4.50 of the 18 pitchers and the 12th highest Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) which essentially nullifies poor defense and focuses on the four true outcomes.
One thing I have omitted thus far has been the fact that Coors Field is not a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Using ERA+ which is impacted by the ballpark, we can tell that his 112 ERA+ tells a different story as 100+ is considered average. He also had a 3.75 ERA last season. The man can pitch.
Now, there are some issues. In ten starts this season he has accumulated 30 walks. He leads the majors in both that category as well as BB/9 with 5.2. I will win this counterargument by saying six simple words: Robbie “Roie” Ray met Pete Walker.
Ray last season was a lot like Márquez this season. Both have the ability to make the batter look foolish and both have high BB/9 (Ray’s was an astronomical 9.0 in 2020 before joining the Jays). Unlike Ray, Márquez has a career BB/9 of 2.6 while Ray’s was 4.3 coming into this season. It could be mechanics, it could be the batters caught on to the delivery or it could be that he is unlucky, but the walking of batters is not good.
Márquez will be expensive as he’s a young pitcher who has shown glimpses of being great. He eats innings and he’s on a great contract, so I don’t believe the Rockies will be sending the Jays an extra 51 million in the trade.
Conclusion
Trades are hard to gauge as fans. We can see it as an overpayment while the other fanbase believes it’s not enough. Therefore I gave two proposals. Marquez is already a great pitcher, but a 26, he has plenty of room to grow on a team-friendly contract. Story is a shortstop who has played third in the minors.
Whether this is an overpayment or not enough, I believe these are two cheap players that the Jays should be looking at in order to improve their positional holes.
Thanks again for reading, I’ve already argued my case on Twitter @Brennan_L_D, but you should follow me if you want to argue. Also give a follow to @SABRSkeptic, @rockierage117, @skraxxy, @RoxPileFS as they are my Rockie friends who helped me out on this. Even if you don’t follow the Rockies, they are a good follow.
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