If/when Blue Jays sell, where might Yusei Kikuchi go? Exploring five potential trade destinations

Less than a month until the July 30 trade deadline, all signs are pointing to the Toronto Blue Jays becoming sellers after the All-Star break, with their group of impending free agents the most likely to be on the move. That includes left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who’s continued to build off last season’s breakout performance.

In Year 2 of a three-year, $36-million contract set to expire this fall, Kikuchi’s strike-zone command improved significantly, helping him set career-bests in ERA (3.86), strikeouts (181), innings pitched (167.2) and fWAR (2.6). This year, he’s cut down the walks and home runs even further, walking just 5.6 per cent of his batters faced while posting a 1.22 HR/9 — and both are new career bests.

While his ERA is a tad higher this season, rising slightly to 4.18, he’s fared better than his traditional metric suggests, as evidenced by his 4.00 xERA and 3.53 FIP across 17 starts. However, the Japanese lefty only has four victories on the year due to a lack of offensive support.

Kikuchi looked like an All-Star early on, pitching to a stellar 2.64 ERA and 2.62 FIP with a 20.3-per-cent strikeout-to-walk rate difference over his first 10 starts. Granted, he’s cooled off considerably of late, earning a 7.12 ERA and 5.27 FIP during his last seven starts, a span in which he’s surrendered eight of his 12 home runs in 2024. But he still has time to get back on track ahead of this month’s trade deadline.

In an ideal world, the Blue Jays would prefer to retain Kikuchi beyond July 30, especially given the club’s depleted pitching depth — both in the majors and at triple-A. At the same time, with this team seemingly out of playoff contention, they’d risk losing him for nothing in free agency by not exploring their trade options.

Since starting pitchers are always in high demand this time of year, the 33-year-old hurler has the chance to become Toronto’s most lucrative trade chip, at least of the rental variety, likely providing them with their best opportunity of acquiring an asset or two that could impact next year’s roster.

So, with that in mind, which teams might be ideal fits for Kikuchi?

Ah, yes, Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins’ former employer. It’d almost be criminal if we didn’t start here.

These two organizations have been well connected over the years, and understandably so. With the Guardians in need of a starting pitcher, this could be another opportunity for these two to help scratch each other’s backs — if the price is right, of course.

Cleveland has excelled at developing quality pitching in the past. But this year’s starting rotation appears a bit thin, with ace Shane Bieber out due to Tommy John surgery and Triston McKenzie optioned to triple-A after struggling to a 5.11 ERA. They’ve also been without Gavin Williams, who’ll make his season debut this week after missing the first three months with an elbow injury.

Even with Tanner Bibee, the Guardians’ rotation sits tied for 22nd in ERA (4.41) while positioned 29th in FIP (4.71) and fWAR (2.4) throughout the sport. Avoiding free passes and home runs are among their biggest concerns, as they’re tied for 24th in walk rate (8.4 per cent) and rank 30th in HR/9 (1.55). They’re also positioned middle-of-the-pack in strikeouts, with a 22.1-per-cent clip.

Those are all areas where Kikuchi could help move the needle forward. Another is his 77th percentile average fastball velocity (95.6 m.p.h.) from the left side, significantly improving Cleveland’s 30th-ranked staff.

Kikuchi’s next potential trade destination is another AL Central contender, one chasing the Guardians for top spot in the division: the Twins, who’ve yet to replace Sonny Gray following last off-season’s departure to the St. Louis Cardinals.

They’ve received productive showings from the trio of Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, which has them 11th in fWAR (6.6) and 13th in FIP (3.98) despite owning a 21st-ranked starter’s ERA (4.39). While their rotation leads the majors in K-BB% (18.7 per cent), they, like the Guardians, have also struggled containing the long ball, sitting tied for 28th in HR/9 (1.42).

Minnesota is extremely right-handed, with only four left-handed pitchers on its 40-man roster — all relievers. Plus, they’re relying on a pair of rookies with Anthony DeSclafani and Chris Paddack on the IL, former Blue Jays prospect Simeon Woods Richardson — sent along with Austin Martin in the 2021 José Berríos blockbuster — and David Festa.

The Twins’ rotation is just one injury away from being in real trouble, and adding Kikuchi would likely eliminate many of those concerns while supplying an extra layer of swing-and-miss as a middle-of-the-staff starter.

The Blue Jays and Cardinals completed three trades a season ago (acquiring Génesis Cabrera, Jordan Hicks, Paul DeJong), so why not build upon that number in 2024, right?

Despite holding the third-worst run differential (-40) in the National League, St. Louis is among the long list of teams competing for the three wild-card seeds, which all but two clubs are in contention for — the Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies. So, chances are they’ll be looking to buy ahead of the trade deadline.

Improving an underperforming and injured lineup is undoubtedly a top priority for the Cardinals. But considering their starting rotation ranks middle-of-the-pack in several categories, including ERA (4.18), FIP (3.94), K-BB% (14.2 per cent), HR/9 (1.08) and fWAR (5.9), they may also continue overhauling their pitching staff — a process that began last winter.

As part of that, they signed a trio of free-agent starters: Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. Though it’s a significant improvement from last season, they’re still without a clear-cut No. 2 on a staff that’s kept this team afloat for much of the year, a vulnerability that could prove troublesome down the stretch and in the playoffs.

Kikuchi hasn’t performed like a front-line starter recently. But he certainly did during his opening-season stretch and is more than capable of catching fire in the post-season for a contender like the Cardinals, who’re another club without a left-handed starting pitcher, with former Blue Jay Steven Matz on the 60-day IL.

Everyone expects Padres GM A. J. Preller to be active around the trade deadline, as is usually the case, and his primary focus will likely be addressing a starting rotation without Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove — both of whom are on the IL.

San Diego’s front office probably has its sights set on bigger fish — like Garrett Crochet, perhaps — rather than Kikuchi, considering the organization features a top-five farm system capable of landing the best-available starting pitcher. However, the Blue Jays lefty could be an appealing secondary target if the market for players with multiple seasons of control proves too expensive.

In that case, Kikuchi would provide much-needed stability to a Padres rotation that’s remained effective thanks to Dylan Cease and Michael King, who’ve emerged as the club’s top two starters out of necessity this season. Once Darvish and Musgrove return, they’d feature a formidable quartet with knuckleballer Matt Waldron rounding out the staff.

Following a busy off-season of spending, the Giants find themselves in the muddy waters of the NL wild-card hunt, sitting three games under .500 entering Tuesday’s slate — the same number of games they trail the final playoff spot. Will team president Farhan Zaidi decide to buy, sell or stand pat?

The answer remains a mystery, but improving the starting rotation will be high on the list — if not atop it — if San Francisco becomes a buyer. At the moment, they don’t have a fifth starter. Tristan Beck, Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray opened this season on the IL, and the club has since seen Blake Snell, former top prospect Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn added to the shelf.

Between those injuries and poor performances from everyone other than ace Logan Webb, the Giants own a 25th-ranked starter’s ERA (4.53) while sitting 14th in FIP (4.01) and tied for 22nd in K-BB% (12.8 per cent) and fWAR (4.0).

San Francisco will eventually get healthier, with Harrison likely returning either this week or next and Ray pencilled for a post-All-Star-break return from Tommy John surgery. But there are still plenty of question marks surrounding Jordan Hicks, who’s regressed considerably from his hot start, pitching to a 5.53 ERA and 5.33 FIP over his last six starts. And it’s unclear which version of Snell they’ll receive once he returns.

If any team needs to acquire a starting pitcher — say Kikuchi — it’s the Giants.