The Blue Jays bullpen implosion is a disaster no one saw coming
2 days ago
The 2023-24 off-season wasn’t perceived as great for the Blue Jays.
After missing out on Shohei Ohtani, the team pivoted to signing Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, and Yariel Rodríguez. In a vacuum, those signings weren’t bad, especially Turner and Kiner-Falefa, and likely Rodríguez.
However, even if the Blue Jays managed to sign Ohtani, the success of the 2024 season hinged on two factors. First off, the internal improvements of several players. Some of those players, namely Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho, have improved. On the other hand, Alejandro Kirk and George Springer have seen improvement in recent weeks, while Bo Bichette, their best hitter in 2023, has regressed.
The other key factor is the health and success of the pitching staff. Kevin Gausman started the season on the Injured List, while Bowden Francis, Yariel Rodríguez, and Alek Manoah have been injured at certain points throughout the season, leading to bullpen games for the fifth spot in the rotation.
However, what we’ll be looking at in this article is the implosion of the bullpen, and how there wasn’t much that the Blue Jays’ management could’ve done about it.
The 2023 bullpen
Last season, the Blue Jays saw 18 relievers come out of the bullpen in relief. The core of the bullpen though was Trevor Richards, Tim Mayza, Génesis Cabrera, Yimi García, Chad Green, Jordan Hicks, Erik Swanson, Jordan Romano, with Bowden Francis coming out of the pen in long relief.
Collectively, the relievers posted a 3.68 ERA (ranked eighth) and a 3.91 FIP (ranked sixth), while pitching just 557 innings, the fifth fewest. Moreover, their K% sat at 26%, tied for the second-highest in the league while their 8.4 BB% was tied for the fourth-lowest in the league.
The bullpen’s only evident struggle was with the home run ball, as they had a 1.15 HR/9, tied for the ninth-worst in the league.
It’s safe to say that the bullpen and pitching as a whole was one of the team’s strengths in 2023. Let’s take a look at how their 2024 bullpen has done.
The 2024 bullpen
This season, the Blue Jays have already seen 16 different relievers come out of the bullpen, and it’s 17 if you want to include two-way superstar Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
The 2023 core is not intact, especially at the current moment. Without spoiling the rest of the article, the only active relievers currently in the bullpen as I write this are Trevor Richards, Chad Green, Bowden Francis, and Génesis Cabrera.
Green has been great for the Jays, posting a 1.53 ERA and a 4.34 FIP in 17.2 innings pitched this season, along with a 23.1 K% and a 6.2 BB%. García has been the best reliever in the pen, posting a 2.57 ERA and a 2.87 FIP in 28 innings pitched, along with a 34.6 K% and a 6.5 BB%, mainly in high-leverage.
The team’s Swiss Army knife, Trevor Richards, has had a good season as well, pitching 42 innings with a 2.57 ERA and a 3.63 FIP (with two starts), but has seen a drop in K% from 33.3% to 24.4%. The good news is that his BB% has also seen a drop from 11.1% to 9.8%.
But that’s about it for the positive stories. As a whole, the bullpen has a 4.78 ERA (third worst) and a 4.90 FIP (the worst). Their K% is down to 19.7%, the fourth worst, while the BB% has stayed virtually the same at 8.6%.
The long ball though, holy moly. This season, the Blue Jays’ bullpen has given up 49 home runs, the worst in the league by only three, as the Tampa Bay Rays’ pen has given up 46 homers. However, looking at it on a rate basis, the 1.56 HR/9 is by far the worst, as Tampa has a 1.30 HR/9. For context, the HR/9 is the worst for a bullpen since the 2020 season. So what’s the cause?
The implosion of the bullpen
In all honesty, it’s hard to answer what exactly went wrong. There’s obviously been poor performance, but injuries have decimated the team’s depth. Their current bullpen consists of Bowden Francis, Génesis Cabrera, José Cuas, Chad Green, Brendon Little, Nate Pearson, Zach Pop, and Trevor Richards.
That’s a good indication of something going drastically wrong. Let’s take a look at a few individual cases.
Erik Swanson
Before the start of the 2023 season, the Blue Jays traded Teoscar Hernández for prospect Adam Macko and Erik Swanson. The latter pitched out of the Jays’ pen in 2023, posting a successful 2.97 ERA and a 3.51 FIP in 66.2 innings as the team’s setup man.
His son, Toby, was hit by a car during Spring Training, understandably, this led to Swanson taking time off. In a rush to get back, he injured himself and started the season on the Injured List. Upon returning, he had a 9.22 ERA and a 7.32 FIP in 13.2 innings pitched, as his K% dropped to 15.2%.
He’s hung the splitter a lot giving him a 3.29 HR/9 before being optioned to Triple-A Buffalo. The option hasn’t helped at all, as he has a 15.09 ERA and a 12.88 FIP in 11.1 innings pitched, along with a 17.6 BB% and K% and a crazy 5.56 HR/9.
Sometimes, things happen off the field players can’t control. At this point, you just hope that Swanson can figure it out in time for next season, because when he’s at his best, he’s an incredibly important piece to a bullpen.
Jordan Romano
Around the same time that Swanson was injured during Spring Training, so too was Jordan Romano thanks to right elbow inflammation. He eventually made his return to the active roster in mid-April, where he posted a 6.59 ERA and a 6.15 FIP in 13.2 innings pitched. Moreover, his K% dropped from 29% to 21%, but he posted a career-best 6.5%.
On the final day of May, Romano was placed on the 15-day Injured List once again due to right elbow inflammation. After several shutdowns, it was reported by numerous sources on Saturday that he would see Dr. Keith Meister, and elbow specialist.
That’s really not a good sign.
Tim Mayza
After receiving Tommy John surgery in 2019 and missing the entirety of the 2020 season, Mayza returned to the Blue Jays roster in 2021 and posted two good seasons.
The 2023 season was not just Mayza’s best, but one of the best in the big leagues. He posted a 1.52 ERA and a 2.60 ERA in 53.1 innings pitched, finishing with a 24.7 K% and a 7 BB% while allowing just two home runs. He was also one of the best lefty-on-lefty pitchers, and was elite at keeping inherited runners from scoring.
But, he’s on this list, which means only one thing, his 2024 season has been a disaster. In 24.2 innings pitched, Mayza has an 8.03 ERA and a 4.90 FIP, giving up three homers, along with a significant drop in his K% to 13.2%. Moreover, his BB% increased to 9.9%, while his 22 earned runs were far more than the nine he had given up in 2023.
On Saturday, the longest-tenured Blue Jay was designated for assignment and will likely be traded instead of claimed. It’s just a sad end to what looked to be a very successful tenure with the Jays.
Does the blame fall on the front office
At the end of the day, team building is up to Ross Atkins and company, so yes, the blame does fall on management to some extend. The way this team is constructed, there’s a slim chance they can get back into the playoff race. That’s partially due to the bats starting the season cold, something the front office should take the blame for, while a big part of it is because of the bullpen’s performance.
However, the implosion of the Blue Jays came from numerous important relievers on the 2023 team. In reality, a team doesn’t carry a bunch of high-leverage relievers in the minors on the 40-man roster, so there wasn’t really a way to avoid what has happened to the bullpen this season.
I’d argue that the bullpen has been the biggest reason for the Blue Jays’ under performance in 2024, but sometimes it just comes to a bad hand. Hopefully, there is someone that can step up to stop this team from spiraling heading into the trade deadline.
As always, you can follow me on Twitter @Ryley_L_D.
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