Ups and Downs on the Farm: June Edition

I’m finding out that the new format has its limitations. Sometimes, there are no players (or very few) markedly better or worse before this month than they were in June (or whatever month that’s in focus) and it makes it a bit off-topic when you take any time to say “This guy was good, but he’s always been good” or whatever. I’m still sorting it out. But let’s dig in.

Last month I noted that Will Robertson was on a heck of a cold streak. It ended up stretching to 37 games, over which he slashed .175/.256/.275/.531 in 133 PA. But over the last 50 at-bats since he’s hot again (.280/.400/.660/1.060) so while it’s not a whole month, put him down as UP. Shortstop Leo Jiminez erased a slowish April with a fiery May which I highlighted last month. He was down just a tic in June but an .885 OPS since coming off of a two-week stint on the IL over the first half of the month is still fine work. We all know that Orelvis Martinez is done for the AAA season, which is a massive down, but for the record, since he broke his May slump – a total of 22 games – he slashed .308/.372/.577/.949 so he finished on an UP in terms of on-field performance. A couple of other notes: 3b/1b Riley Tirotta, a 12th-round pick in the ’21 draft, has gotten better at every level when promoted.  He’s knocked eight homers in 88 AA at-bats and while it’s a small sample, you can’t find a flaw in his outcomes. I’ll be interested to see if he shows up on any mid-season top-30 lists. On the other hand, Alan Roden got the call to AAA on June 15 and hasn’t made the adjustment yet. But two weeks is a tiny window to draw any conclusions.

Let’s start the pitching review with Chad Dallas. After his first start in May, his ERA was approaching 8.00, but he seemed to be sorting it out in the next two starts with 10.1 IP allowing 4 runs (3.48 ERA) and struck out 10. Then he hit the IL for three weeks but his two starts since getting back to AAA he’s still in the groove. Definitely an Up in a small sample. Turning to the bullpen, let me mention Brandon Eisert since I should have last month and didn’t. The lefty is a guy I’ve been quietly enthused about really his whole pro career. But what even I overlooked is how skewed his top-line stats are this year. He was charged with seven earned runs in his first appearance this season while recording only two outs. Since then he’s put up 27 innings and allowed 11 ER while striking out 41. 41! That brief call-up shouldn’t be the last you see of him in Toronto. Fellow reliever, and buzzy prospect, Connor Cooke had been struggling before June, but he was much better in 10 IP over the last month. The walks are still high but two earned runs in 10 IP is worth an UP given how rough he’d been previously. Can’t not mention my boy Eric Pardinho. Like Eisert, ignore the inflated ERA. It’s true he got roughed up (in bad weather) in his second AAA appearance, but it’s also the only time he’s allowed an earned run in 10 weeks.

Coin flip on whether to start with an up or a down here. Let’s go with the familiar name. Josh Kasevich got a down last month after a steep falloff from April. He’s still worth another Down in my opinion because he really hasn’t recovered much production and the sample is getting bigger. On the Up side recognition is due to Ryan McCarty. Like Tirotta, though not quite to the same extreme, he got promoted (right at the end of May) and promptly went out and well exceeded what pace he’d been on in Vancouver. I am inclined to think Tirotta is the better hitter and more likely to get to the majors at some point but they are similar stories. Devonte Brown came into the month with a nice little .811 OPS but June has been really rough on him. You have to wear a Down for turning in a .656 for the month.

Adam Macko‘s line for the month is worth a down, but I’ll withhold because it’s bound up in just one start. The last time he took the mound he got tagged for seven earned in 4.1 IP. Before that, his 3.91 for the month was directly in line with his previous work this season (though the K rate was down a bit). There is, though, a massive Down ready for CJ Van Eck. After a horrific April, he had a brilliant May – on the right track, yeah? Well, no. His 10.07 ERA in June says otherwise. Allowing 36 hits in 19.2 IP generally produces bad outcomes.

There’s a little bit of a sample size thing with this Up but I’ll do it anyway. Big 1B Payton Williams has only been back from rehab for 22 games, but the first 10 of those were really cold (.252 OPS) and since then, 40 at-bats, his OPS is 1.169 which deserves praise, with the sample size caveat applied in terms of future expectations. Jace Bohrofen was still as unproductive in June as in May, but I’m not sure that per my format I should give him a formal Down, but I did consider it.

Let’s have a double dip of Cuban ups to start here. Lazaro Estrada has been on my radar basically since he was in the Dominican in 2018. He has never not been excellent. But after the Covid Year, injuries limited him to 40 IP across ’21 and ’22. Finally healthy last year he began to gather momentum and was widely thought to be ready for promotion. Unconfirmed scuttlebutt suggests that visa issues prevented that, but it won’t this year.  After eight starts he owns a 1.73 ERA and all the rate stats are impressive. He gets an Up from me and he’s due to get a call up from AA. The other guy falls more in the “righting the ship” category. Rafael Sanchez was dominant at Dunedin last year, but after moving up to Vancouver he struggled apart from a nice June. Running it back in Vancouver this year he had a disastrous run of 3 bad starts in four outings, giving up 21 earned runs in 17 IP and you had to wonder if maybe he’d kind of hit his ceiling. But since then he’s pitched 35 innings across six starts, allowed nine earned runs (1.80 ERA) and struck out 46 while walking only FOUR.  Ryan Jennings has been excellent all year (and is also overdue for promotion) but over his last five outings he has a 1.42 ERA and, like Macko, he’s only had one really bad turn all year. Conversely, I gave Chris McElvain an Up last month but it’s gonna be harder this time. To be consistent with previous choices, I’m not going to Down a guy for a line that’s corrupted by having gotten absolutely pounded in a single outing (nine ER in 3 IP on June 7) but it means your line for the month is…unflattering.

In May, Victor Arias tumbled hard from his April heater. In June, the heat is back. His OPS was .653 in May, and it jumped to .860 in June. That’s an Up. The other two members of the young promising outfield in Dunedin struggle, one of them to the point of being slipped across town to the Complex. Jean Joeseph saw his May OPS of .793 crash to .545 in June. Yohangel Aponte Was quite hot in April (.916), below average in May (.683), and was down to .404 for June before the demotion, where he’s got an even worse line. Last month I praised Manuel Beltre for his best month at the plate. June was …not that. Give him a little Down because a player in his position needs sustained success to get back on the radar.

We learned over the weekend that Juran Watts-Brown was being promoted to Vancouver and he earned it. Over his last seven starts, he’s struck out 48 (and walked 15 walks in 33.2 innings leading to a 2.41 ERA over that span. Got to label that Up. Nolan Perry and Fernando Perez have been good all year and in the latter case basically his whole career. Perez did have a slightly better month but it feels like off-format to file that as an Up because basically, he was just doing what he’s always done. Also last month I recognized that Kai Peterson who had come off of a scorching April, wrecked his May line when he lost the zone for a week in mid-May (10 walks, and 10 ER in 2.1 IP) but since he’s only allowed two earned runs in 16 IP while striking out 34. In fact, on the whole season apart from that one 3-game crash, he has a 1.86 ERA and has struck out 59 in 29 IP.

Basically, there are few hitters on the roster faring well right now. The big premium prospect here is RF Emanuel Bonilla but he’s getting a Down. He had an .821 OPS in May, but June absolutely wrecked him. putting up a .391 OPS. Arjun Nimmala was here for three weeks earlier in the month to reset after being overwhelmed at Dunedin. In 21 games he had a 1.038 OPS and upon returning to Dunedin, he’s 3 for 10. I’ll award a tentative Up but it’s too soon to know if the reset will lead to more success with the D-Jays. Another, less heralded, player to stand out on the complex squad is 3B Kendry Chirinos. His OPS in May was .628 but he earned an Up for June by elevating that number to .983 for the month.

Last month I mentioned SP Christopher Castro, he’s yet another pitcher in the system who had an incredibly bad game that made the monthly totals look a lot worse than they should. On June 10 he was tagged with seven ER in 1.2 IP. Take out that one game and you get a 0.68 ERA for the other three June starts. Given most of the other pitchers here are not impressing, go ahead and give him an Up. Another guy here that observers are praising is Samuel Colmenares, who improved in June (over a smallish sample).

The Dominican team got going in June, so this segment will be mainly just a baseline setting for some of the better performers. There are four hitters who are off to hot starts. 3B Aldo Gaxiola has a .972 OPS, 1B Randy Soto is at .937 (with 19 walks against 11K), SS Juarlin Soto is at .900 (27 walks in 20 games), and LF Rafael Flores isn’t on that level with his .831 OPS but he has 13 walks in 17 games along with 11 stolen bases.  One more I’m watching is outfielder David Beckles who was recently signed after having been released from the Yankees system despite hitting well in previous years.

Here’s a name I hadn’t heard a month ago and I’m betting most of you haven’t either: Sann Omosako. He’s an 18-year-old Brazilian (we learned via Eric Pardinho that there’s actually a baseball community in Brazil that has a Japanese heritage) and so far he’s owning DSL hitters. Weirdly, to me, he actually pitched in the DSL last year and I don’t know how I overlooked him. Anyway, he’s given up ONE earned run in 20 IP across four outings, while striking out 20 and walking zero. Another name to remember is slender lefty Eduar Gonzalez, who has a 2.18 ERA with 24 K and 5 BB in 20.2 IP. I’ll also mention Cuban singing (on June 7) Silvano Hechavarria. The stats are not eye-popping yet but that’s mainly because his first pro start was shaky, the two since are fine work. We’ll know more about him and the others in a month, but he’s 21 so before things are done he MIGHT get a few turns in Florida. Also, watch reliever Ramon Suarez. A dominant reliever is actually pretty common at the lowest levels compared to how many of them actually prove out in the majors, but 25 K and 2 BB in 15 IP deserves a mention.