<p>If you want to raise the blood pressure of two fan bases, just utter the phrase &#8220;run differential&#8221; and it will elicit a polarizing result from supporters of the <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/">Toronto Blue Jays</a> and the New York Yankees. These two teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum, yet one is atop the American League East and the other is on the outside looking in.</p>
<p>Earlier this week, Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay referenced the run differential metric in his argument that <a href="https://awfulannouncing.com/mlb/michael-kay-says-first-place-blue-jays-arent-a-first-place-team.html">the &#8220;Blue Jays were not a first-place team&#8221;</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;If you look at the run differential, the Yankees’ run differential is +105. The Blue Jays, after a 12-5 win, finally got in the positive yesterday. They’re +4. Do you realize they should be a .500 team because of a +4 run differential? And the Yankees should have at least four or five more wins with a +105 run differential.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>He&#8217;s not wrong that the Blue Jays seem to be over-performing and the Yankees are under-performing, but the run differential number alone doesn&#8217;t tell the full story.</p>
<p>Heading into Friday&#8217;s games, Toronto had a +9 run differential, while New York had a +100 run differential. The Yankees have outscored the Blue Jays by 91 runs this season and they have one fewer win. How could this be? What witchery is happening to Toronto to make this happen?</p>
<p>It&#8217;s quite simple: when the Yankees win, they win big. When they lose, they lose by a small margin. Conversely, the Blue Jays play plenty of tight ball games and typically win by a small margin. But when the Jays lose, they lose handily. That&#8217;s why the run differential is so lopsided, yet the Blue Jays have a better record than the Yankees.</p>
<h2>Average margin of runs per win/loss (Blue Jays and Yankees)</h2>
<table style="width: 538px;" width="247">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98px; text-align: center;" width="64"><strong>Team</strong></td>
<td style="width: 226px; text-align: center;" width="93"><strong>Average Runs in Wins</strong></td>
<td style="width: 214px; text-align: center;" width="90"><strong>Average Runs in Losses</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98px; text-align: center;">Blue Jays</td>
<td style="width: 226px; text-align: center;">3.41</td>
<td style="width: 214px; text-align: center;">4.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98px; text-align: center;">Yankees</td>
<td style="width: 226px; text-align: center;">4.37</td>
<td style="width: 214px; text-align: center;">2.82</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>On average, the Blue Jays win their games by 3.41 runs and they lose by 4.16 runs. The Yankees, however, averaged 4.37 runs in their victories and 2.82 runs in their losses. The Blue Jays win lots of close games, and the Yankees lose lots of close games. The Blue Jays lose in blowout fashion often and the Yankees win in blowout fashion often.</p>
<p>And then when you break it down by monthly splits, you see the Yankees absolutely destroyed the competition in March, April and May, but came back down to earth on June 1. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays got over their disastrous opening of the season to post positive run differentials since May 1.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays have arguably had a tougher schedule than the Yankees in the first half as well, which may have skewed the win and loss totals for both teams.</p>
<h2>Run differential by month (Blue Jays and Yankees)</h2>
<table style="width: 541px;" width="247">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139px; text-align: center;" width="64"><strong>Month</strong></td>
<td style="width: 105px; text-align: center;" width="93"><strong>Blue Jays</strong></td>
<td style="width: 297px; text-align: center;" width="90"><strong>Yankees</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139px; text-align: center;">March/April</td>
<td style="width: 105px; text-align: center;">-34</td>
<td style="width: 297px; text-align: center;">+52</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139px; text-align: center;">May</td>
<td style="width: 105px; text-align: center;">+25</td>
<td style="width: 297px; text-align: center;">+52</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139px; text-align: center;">June</td>
<td style="width: 105px; text-align: center;">+6</td>
<td style="width: 297px; text-align: center;">+18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139px; text-align: center;">July</td>
<td style="width: 105px; text-align: center;">+12</td>
<td style="width: 297px; text-align: center;">-12</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Marc Normandin also had a great thread on this very subject earlier today.</p>
<blockquote class="bluesky-embed" data-bluesky-uri="at://did:plc:j7mcwnkjecbncepgyah7g2yx/app.bsky.feed.post/3lt4xal4qrk2v" data-bluesky-cid="bafyreieyk4jmf5x44kzljc4oyx6uivj25f2bgpwr34e2deum63wzkrosxe">
<p lang="en">Michael Kay used run differential to say that the Blue Jays aren&#39;t a first-place team, which is fine really, but it&#39;s a shorthand, too. The Yankees are five-wins worse than their run differential and now in second place. Why?</p>
<p>&mdash; <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:j7mcwnkjecbncepgyah7g2yx?ref_src=embed">Marc Normandin (@marcnormandin.bsky.social)</a> <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:j7mcwnkjecbncepgyah7g2yx/post/3lt4xal4qrk2v?ref_src=embed">2025-07-04T09:41:40.278Z</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://embed.bsky.app/static/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Initially, I was a little concerned when I saw the Blue Jays&#8217; run differential earlier this season and their expected win-loss record, which pegged them as a .500 team or slightly below .500. But they dug themselves into a big during the first five weeks of the season by sustaining some heavy blowouts and eking out some close victories.</p>
<p>With a lineup built around defense and a lot of contact hitters, that&#8217;s probably going to be the tendency of this Blue Jays team. They aren&#8217;t the biggest power-hitting lineup in baseball, but plenty of guys put the bat on the ball, they don&#8217;t strike out often and they get on base at a decent clip.</p>
<p>The M.O. of this<a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/dont-count-these-blue-jays-out-just-yet"> Blue Jays</a> team isn&#8217;t to bludgeon them to death, more like the boa constrictor approach of slowly squeezing the life out of their opponents over 27 outs.</p>
<p>Around these parts, many cite the first-half 2015 Blue Jays team as a squad that vastly underperformed their potential. On the day of the Troy Tulowitzki trade, July 28, 2015, the Blue Jays had a +94 run differential with a 50-51 record. At that time, the Jays had the second-best run differential in MLB but were eight games back of the division lead and three games out of a playoff spot.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-87989" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/07/Screenshot-2025-07-04-165349-1024x258.png" alt="" width="1024" height="258" srcset="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/07/Screenshot-2025-07-04-165349-1024x258.png 1024w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/07/Screenshot-2025-07-04-165349-300x76.png 300w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/07/Screenshot-2025-07-04-165349-768x194.png 768w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/07/Screenshot-2025-07-04-165349.png 1423w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p>
<p>Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos made the correct decision to go all-in and acquire superstar talent like Tulowitzki and David Price to reinforce that roster. That team went 43-18 in their final 61 games of the season after starting 50-51 through their first 100 games.</p>
<p>Another recent example of a negative run differential team that overperformed was the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks, who posted a -15 run differential but rode their late-season momentum to the World Series. The Miami Marlins also had a -57 run differential and slid in as a Wild Card team that year.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-87988" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/07/Screenshot-2025-07-04-165228-1024x171.png" alt="" width="1024" height="171" srcset="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/07/Screenshot-2025-07-04-165228-1024x171.png 1024w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/07/Screenshot-2025-07-04-165228-300x50.png 300w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/07/Screenshot-2025-07-04-165228-768x128.png 768w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/07/Screenshot-2025-07-04-165228.png 1370w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p>
<p>It&#8217;s not a death sentence for a team to be hovering around zero or even in the red when it comes to run differentials. If you throw out their March and April, the Blue Jays are trending in the right direction for that metric. The Yankees are heading in the opposite direction after sailing for the first two-plus months of the season, but now it&#8217;s finally caught up to them.</p>
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If you want to raise the blood pressure of two fan bases, just utter the phrase "run differential" and it will elicit a polarizing result from supporters of the <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/">Toronto Blue Jays</a> and the New York Yankees. These two teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum, yet one is atop the American League East and the other is on the outside looking in.

Earlier this week, Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay referenced the run differential metric in his argument that <a href="https://awfulannouncing.com/mlb/michael-kay-says-first-place-blue-jays-arent-a-first-place-team.html">the "Blue Jays were not a first-place team"</a>.
<blockquote>"If you look at the run differential, the Yankees’ run differential is +105. The Blue Jays, after a 12-5 win, finally got in the positive yesterday. They’re +4. Do you realize they should be a .500 team because of a +4 run differential? And the Yankees should have at least four or five more wins with a +105 run differential."</blockquote>
He's not wrong that the Blue Jays seem to be over-performing and the Yankees are under-performing, but the run differential number alone doesn't tell the full story.

Heading into Friday's games, Toronto had a +9 run differential, while New York had a +100 run differential. The Yankees have outscored the Blue Jays by 91 runs this season and they have one fewer win. How could this be? What witchery is happening to Toronto to make this happen?

It's quite simple: when the Yankees win, they win big. When they lose, they lose by a small margin. Conversely, the Blue Jays play plenty of tight ball games and typically win by a small margin. But when the Jays lose, they lose handily. That's why the run differential is so lopsided, yet the Blue Jays have a better record than the Yankees.
<h2>Average margin of runs per win/loss (Blue Jays and Yankees)</h2>
<table style="width: 538px;" width="247">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98px; text-align: center;" width="64"><strong>Team</strong></td>
<td style="width: 226px; text-align: center;" width="93"><strong>Average Runs in Wins</strong></td>
<td style="width: 214px; text-align: center;" width="90"><strong>Average Runs in Losses</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98px; text-align: center;">Blue Jays</td>
<td style="width: 226px; text-align: center;">3.41</td>
<td style="width: 214px; text-align: center;">4.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98px; text-align: center;">Yankees</td>
<td style="width: 226px; text-align: center;">4.37</td>
<td style="width: 214px; text-align: center;">2.82</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
On average, the Blue Jays win their games by 3.41 runs and they lose by 4.16 runs. The Yankees, however, averaged 4.37 runs in their victories and 2.82 runs in their losses. The Blue Jays win lots of close games, and the Yankees lose lots of close games. The Blue Jays lose in blowout fashion often and the Yankees win in blowout fashion often.

And then when you break it down by monthly splits, you see the Yankees absolutely destroyed the competition in March, April and May, but came back down to earth on June 1. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays got over their disastrous opening of the season to post positive run differentials since May 1.

The Blue Jays have arguably had a tougher schedule than the Yankees in the first half as well, which may have skewed the win and loss totals for both teams.
<h2>Run differential by month (Blue Jays and Yankees)</h2>
<table style="width: 541px;" width="247">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139px; text-align: center;" width="64"><strong>Month</strong></td>
<td style="width: 105px; text-align: center;" width="93"><strong>Blue Jays</strong></td>
<td style="width: 297px; text-align: center;" width="90"><strong>Yankees</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139px; text-align: center;">March/April</td>
<td style="width: 105px; text-align: center;">-34</td>
<td style="width: 297px; text-align: center;">+52</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139px; text-align: center;">May</td>
<td style="width: 105px; text-align: center;">+25</td>
<td style="width: 297px; text-align: center;">+52</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139px; text-align: center;">June</td>
<td style="width: 105px; text-align: center;">+6</td>
<td style="width: 297px; text-align: center;">+18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 139px; text-align: center;">July</td>
<td style="width: 105px; text-align: center;">+12</td>
<td style="width: 297px; text-align: center;">-12</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Marc Normandin also had a great thread on this very subject earlier today.

https://bsky.app/profile/marcnormandin.bsky.social/post/3lt4xal4qrk2v

Initially, I was a little concerned when I saw the Blue Jays' run differential earlier this season and their expected win-loss record, which pegged them as a .500 team or slightly below .500. But they dug themselves into a big during the first five weeks of the season by sustaining some heavy blowouts and eking out some close victories.

With a lineup built around defense and a lot of contact hitters, that's probably going to be the tendency of this Blue Jays team. They aren't the biggest power-hitting lineup in baseball, but plenty of guys put the bat on the ball, they don't strike out often and they get on base at a decent clip.

The M.O. of this<a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/dont-count-these-blue-jays-out-just-yet"> Blue Jays</a> team isn't to bludgeon them to death, more like the boa constrictor approach of slowly squeezing the life out of their opponents over 27 outs.

Around these parts, many cite the first-half 2015 Blue Jays team as a squad that vastly underperformed their potential. On the day of the Troy Tulowitzki trade, July 28, 2015, the Blue Jays had a +94 run differential with a 50-51 record. At that time, the Jays had the second-best run differential in MLB but were eight games back of the division lead and three games out of a playoff spot.

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-87989" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/07/Screenshot-2025-07-04-165349-1024x258.png" alt="" width="1024" height="258" />

Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos made the correct decision to go all-in and acquire superstar talent like Tulowitzki and David Price to reinforce that roster. That team went 43-18 in their final 61 games of the season after starting 50-51 through their first 100 games.

Another recent example of a negative run differential team that overperformed was the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks, who posted a -15 run differential but rode their late-season momentum to the World Series. The Miami Marlins also had a -57 run differential and slid in as a Wild Card team that year.

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-87988" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/07/Screenshot-2025-07-04-165228-1024x171.png" alt="" width="1024" height="171" />

It's not a death sentence for a team to be hovering around zero or even in the red when it comes to run differentials. If you throw out their March and April, the Blue Jays are trending in the right direction for that metric. The Yankees are heading in the opposite direction after sailing for the first two-plus months of the season, but now it's finally caught up to them.

<hr />

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Don’t be fooled by the Blue Jays’ and Yankees’ run differentials

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