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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wins his arbitration case, will make $19.9 million in 2024

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Photo credit:© John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Ryley Delaney
2 months ago
Well, we now know how much Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will make in 2024.
According to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, the arbitrators have ruled in favour of Guerrero Jr., who wanted $19.9 million compared to Toronto’s ask of $18.05 million.
It was a tough season for the first baseman by his own standards. The 24-year-old slashed .264/.345/.444 with 26 home runs in 682 plate appearances for a 118 wRC+ and a 1 fWAR. Of course, that is above average for most players, but it’s a far decline from his previous seasons.
For example, Guerrero Jr. slashed .274/.339/.480 with 32 home runs in 706 plate appearances for a 133 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR in 2022. On top of that, Guerrero Jr. won the American League Gold Glove for first basemen.
Guerrero Jr. had an even better season in 2021, where he performed like an MVP. That season, he slashed .311/.401/.601 with 48 home runs in 698 plate appearances. That season, he had a 166 wRC+ and a 6.3 fWAR, falling just shy of winning the American League MVP that season to Shohei Ohtani.
The good news is that projections have him as a better hitter in 2023. Fangraphs’ Steamer projects he’ll slashed .285/.367/.528 with 36 home runs in 663 plate appearances for a 145 wRC+ and 4.2 fWAR. The weakest projection is from ZiPS, who has him slashing .278/.357/.492 with 31 homers for a 133 wRC+ and a 3.2 fWAR, which is still significantly better than the 2023 season.
It’s also worth mentioning that Guerrero Jr. said that he wasn’t quite healthy, as he noted that his health got in the way of his success. Thanks to the wonderful Damon (@Varsh0AA on Twitter, follow him) for aggregating this one.
This is Guerrero Jr.’s penultimate season of team control, as he’ll have his last season of arbitration after the 2024 season. After the 2025 season, Guerrero Jr. will become a free agent for the first time in his career if the Jays don’t re-sign him to an extension that should’ve been signed long ago.
According to Sportrac, the Jays currently have an active payroll of $219,001,766. In terms of their luxury tax situation, they have a total tax allocation of $244,868,452, well past the tax threshold of $237 million.
It’ll be interesting to see if the Blue Jays have any more moves up their sleeves, as they’re a weaker team than the 2023 season, especially if Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, and Daulton Varsho don’t bounce back.

As always, you can follow me on Twitter, Instagram, and Threads @Brennan_L_D.

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