What would a Francisco Lindor trade realistically look like? Is it worth it for the Blue Jays?

Francisco Lindor is going to be traded before the start of the 2021 season.

This obviously isn’t a surprise. Cleveland, a notoriously cheap baseball franchise at the best of times, was never going to hand Lindor the over $300 million contract it would take to keep him around long-term.

After losing a season of ticket revenue, any faint chance of offering Lindor a contract has gone out the window. I mean, back in October, Lindor literally laughed at the idea of Cleveland offering him a big contract, so it was pretty obvious he had played his last game for the organization at that point.

Anyways, according to Bob Nightengale, Cleveland has informed other teams around the league that they intend to trade their All-Star shortstop ahead of the 2021 season…

If times were normal, we might see Cleveland go into the season with Lindor on the team and try to get a massive haul for him at the trade deadline. You know, the good old Josh Donaldson approach from 2018.

But times aren’t normal. Cleveland, as I said earlier, is even more broke-ass than usual after missing out on a year of ticket and in-game revenue. So, beyond just wanting to get something for their best player before he walks in free agency, Cleveland actually wants to move on from Lindor’s ~$21 million salary ahead of the start of the 2021 season.

There’s been talk about the Blue Jays going after Lindor for quite some time. The connection here is pretty obvious as Lindor is a player who was drafted and developed back when Mark Shapiro was in Cleveland.

While Bo Bichette is Toronto’s current shortstop, bringing Lindor into the picture would be a pretty clear upgrade defensively. Bichette could potentially develop into a good defensive shortstop, but Lindor is already a polished player who features one of the best gloves at short in baseball. Having him at short and Bichette at second base would be about as good of a combination as you can find around the league right now.

So, what would it take for the Blue Jays to acquire Lindor from Cleveland?

Last winter, the Red Sox dealt soon-to-be free agent Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers, so we can use that as a starting point.

Betts went to L.A. along with David Price for Alex Verdugo and two prospects, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong. Verdugo was the Dodgers’ No. prospect heading into 2019 and had an All-Star season that year. Downs was their No. 5 prospect and Wong was their No. 28-ranked prospect at the end of the 2019 season.

But there are a few key differences here. Lindor, while very good, is not Betts, who won the 2018 American League MVP. L.A. also took on David Price’s mammoth contract, which resulted in them having to give up quite a bit less in prospect capital the other way. Cleveland is also much, much more of a broke-ass team than the Red Sox, so they’re more desperate to deal Lindor ahead of 2021 than Boston was with Betts.

Another thing to consider is where Cleveland is at right now. While they’re trying to shed salary, they also more than likely want to remain somewhat competitive. During the 2020 season, they were a clear-cut playoff team in the mix for the Central Division crown, but they still traded Mike Clevinger to San Diego because he’s set to be arbitration-eligible for the second time this winter.

In return, Cleveland acquired three prospects and three players, Austin Hedges, Cal Quantrill, and Josh Naylor, who are cheap and can help the team right now.

OK! That’s a lot to consider.

When you put it all together, it looks like Cleveland will get less for Lindor than Boston did for Betts.

While Cleveland isn’t anchoring him down with a Price-style contract, Lindor isn’t as good as Betts (coming off a season with a career-low .258/.335/.415 slash line doesn’t help) and everyone knows how badly they want to get a deal done before the start of the 2021 season. There are also inevitably going to be fewer teams bidding because there aren’t that many teams out there looking to add payroll right now.

If Cleveland wants a young, cheap player who can help the team right now, Lourdes Gurriel makes all kinds of sense given the fact he’s signed to a contract that pays him $3,928,571 in 2021, $4,928,572 in 2022, $5,828,571 in 2023, and is still under team control for 2024. Going along with the Betts trade, adding a mid-level prospect and a lower-level prospect along with Gurriel should probably be enough to make a deal.

And then there’s the other question… Is this something the Blue Jays should do?

Lindor, of course, is a free agent after the 2021 season. If you make this trade you’re obviously doing so with the intention of signing him long-term, as the Dodgers did with Betts, but that’s no guarantee. Lindor could possibly walk after the season, leaving the Blue Jays with nothing more than a compensatory draft pick, assuming they qualify him.

Next winter’s free-agent market is stacking up to be much stronger than the one this year. Along with Lindor, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, and Javier Baez are set to hit the open market after 2021.

And those are just the shortstops. There’s also Freddie Freeman, Kris Bryant, Noah Syndergaard, possibly Nolan Arenado if he declines his player option, and a bunch of veteran pitchers, like Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, and Clayton Kershaw.

It might not be worthwhile for the Blue Jays to give up players and prospects to acquire Lindor when next winter’s free-agent class features so many possibilities for a huge splash.