There’s now a realistic chance that Anthony Santander could make his 2026 season debut with the Toronto Blue Jays later this month.

That didn’t seem possible even a few weeks ago, as Santander hadn’t begun facing live pitching at the club’s player development complex in Dunedin, Fla. While he isn’t in the clear yet and still has a few hurdles to jump, this is the closest he’s been all year to returning to the majors.

After undergoing shoulder surgery in February to repair a torn labrum suffered during an off-season workout, the 31-year-old’s chances of playing in ’26 were considered extremely low. The second season of his five-year, $92.5 million contract was slated to be another lost one, after multiple ailments limited him to just 59 games (including post-season) a year ago — and it still might be.

But the door has been left open by the tiniest of cracks, now that Santander is on the verge of beginning a Triple-A rehab assignment. What follows will determine his fate for the rest of this season.

The recovering switch-hitter will play for the Buffalo Bisons starting Wednesday in what’s expected to be the first of at least a handful of rehab games, as manager John Schneider revealed to reporters in Sacramento on Monday. He’ll start at DH before transitioning to the outfield and will bat from both sides of the plate as he eyes a late-September return from the 60-day IL.

This won’t be a traditional rehab assignment, though. The Blue Jays aren’t planning to simply activate Santander — whose last major-league home run occurred on May 20, 2025, nearly 500 days ago — after a week’s worth of games. Part of this will revolve around regaining his timing. But other key elements will be closely monitored, too, such as his swing decisions, bat speed and quality of contact.

Plus, Santander is a notorious slow starter — he owns a career .204/.285/.360 slash line and 81 wRC+ (100 league average) in March/April across nine major league seasons. So, as much as traditional results don’t usually carry much weight during rehab assignments, his might be an exception. Since Buffalo’s season ends on Sep. 20, he really can’t afford to waste any at-bats.

Fortunately, this organization has been in this position with Santander before… last year.

While recovering from his initial shoulder injury in 2025, the veteran slugger spent a few weeks with Buffalo and logged 10 rehab games, during which he posted a pair of doubles and home runs each in 38 plate appearances. That set him up to appear in Toronto’s final two series of the regular season.

Santander was featured on both the Blue Jays’ ALDS and ALCS rosters, but had to be removed midway through that post-season bout against the Seattle Mariners due to a back injury that ended his injury-riddled campaign. And he hasn’t played since then.

In theory, the former Oriole could add serious middle-of-the-order thump to this offence, but only if he resembles the type of power hitter who blasted 105 home runs and slugged .478 in his final three seasons with Baltimore. It’ll be a difficult needle to thread, though, given how much time he’s missed — both this year and since his departure from last fall’s ALCS.

For a lineup tied for 28th in runs scored per game (4.03) this season, it’s worth keeping an open mind, particularly with 17 games remaining. Let’s see where the cards fall.

In the event Santander rejoins the Blue Jays’ lineup in late September, multiple roster moves will need to occur — barring an injury, of course.

Not only will they need to create space on the 28-man active roster, but, since he’s currently on the 60-day IL, he’ll also have to be re-added to the 40-man. Considering infielder Luis Urías reaggravated his injured quad while attempting to begin a rehab assignment last week, likely ending his ’26 season, transferring him to the 60-day IL should present the simplest solution regarding Santander’s 40-man roster spot.

Opening a roster spot on the 28-man, however, is where things become less straightforward. Unless a sudden IL placement coincides with Santander’s return, there won’t be a simple solution here.

Toronto’s usual starting nine of Brett Bateman, Nathan Lukes, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Kazuma Okamoto, Andrés Giménez, Ernie Clement and Myles Straw are all safe. The same goes for backup catcher Brandon Valenzuela and probably Josh Smith, who has options remaining but has emerged as a valuable platoon hitter at multiple positions. That accounts for 11 of the 14 position player spots.

Optioning either Sean Keys or Charles McAdoo would likely be on the table. However, given McAdoo’s defensive versatility and the fact that he’s a right-handed bat, chances are he wouldn’t be the corresponding move. Keys makes a compelling case, too, based on the immense power he possesses. It’s also possible that Jesús Sánchez — who offers less power upside and plays the same position as Santander — could be on the chopping block.

Sánchez and Santander’s profiles are actually quite similar. They’re both poor defensive corner outfielders, essentially DH-only types at this point. Offensively, when they’re right, both are power-over-contact hitters who trade swing-and-miss for extra-base slug. The only real difference is Sánchez hits left, while Santander is a switch-hitter.

If you remember back to spring training, the sole reason Toronto’s front office made the Jesús Sánchez-Joey Loperfido swap with the Houston Astros was to replace Santander’s lost production. Because of how many similarities they share, keeping both may not be the best use of roster space.

Another factor to consider is the Blue Jays’ willingness, or lack thereof, to deploy George Springer in the outfield right now. The 36-year-old — who’ll turn 37 next week — has only made two starts in left field this season, both since the start of July. Last season was also a career-worst defensive performance (-7 DRS, -6 OAA & -8 FRV in fewer than 500 innings). So he probably isn’t moving out of his everyday DH role.

The days of justifying Sánchez in the outfield are gone, and while Santander’s defence likely won’t be much of an improvement, if any, his bat — if it’s performing — can cover up a lot of ugliness in the field. Whether it’s off the bench or as a starter, this lineup could sorely use a power slugger like him, particularly against left-handed pitching — the club’s right-handed batters own a 92 wRC+ in those matchups this season, ranked 24th in the majors.

Santander enjoyed better results from the left side (131 wRC+) than the right (122) during his career year in 2024. But with how few impact right-handed bats Toronto’s lineup features, he’d likely have a much clearer pathway to at-bats in right-on-left situations than vice versa.

At the moment, anytime a left-hander is starting, there’s a platoon disadvantage due to Toronto’s surplus of left-handed-hitting outfielders. With Santander, though, he has the potential to flip the script. But he’ll have to earn every opportunity that comes his way.

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