The Toronto Blue Jays might have a Rookie of the Year candidate.

I’ll give you three guesses about who leads American League rookies in fWAR. It’s not Colton Cowser, it’s not Austin Wells, it’s not Wyatt Langford, it’s not Nolan Schanuel. It is, in fact, Toronto’s 24th-round selection from the 2019 draft, Spencer Horwitz.
<a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/orelvis-martinez-homered-in-his-triple-a-debut-spencer-horwitz-showcases-his-70-grade-hit-tool-davis-schneider-continued-to-hit-for-power">Long-time readers</a> will know that I’ve always been rather high on the 26-year-old left-handed hitter. For any top Blue Jays list I did, he always ranked in the top ten, usually the top five. In fairness, though, I didn’t expect him to have the season he’s having.
After a “meh” season in Triple-A in 2022, Horwitz quickly rebuilt his stock in 2023, slashing .337/.450/.495 with ten home runs in 484 plate appearances with the Buffalo Bisons. In two stints with Toronto in 2023, Horwitz slashed .256/.341/.385 with a home run in 44 plate appearances, mainly appearing in games when the roster expanded in September.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Big moment for No. 17 prospect Spencer Horwitz, who hit his first career MLB home run. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueJays</a> <a href="https://t.co/G6LZym8xcs">pic.twitter.com/G6LZym8xcs</a>
&mdash; Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) <a href="https://twitter.com/KeeganMatheson/status/1698428967202758741?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 3, 2023</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Horwitz was in a great position to earn a spot out of Spring Training, but his pre-season performance wasn’t great so the team sent him to Buffalo to start the year. Blue Jays also had aspirations of contending in 2024, meaning the spot on the roster that is now occupied bo Horwitz was originally given to veteran hitters Daniel Vogelbach and Justin Turner.
With the Bisons, Horwitz slashed a .335/.456/.514 line with four home runs in 259 plate appearances, along with a higher BB% (17%) than K% (15.8%) for a 159 wRC+. He also hit 22 doubles. Despite not playing in the minor leagues since early June, Horwitz is tied for fifth in doubles for Blue Jays minor leaguers, and held the lead until Jace Bohrofen tied him on August 20.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Spencer Horwitz&#39;s first plate appearance of the season ends with a home run to give the Buffalo Bisons a 2-1 lead! <a href="https://t.co/sO1wOybZiT">pic.twitter.com/sO1wOybZiT</a>
&mdash; Ryley Delaney🏳️‍⚧️ (@Ryley_L_D) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ryley_L_D/status/1773778423774642616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 29, 2024</a></blockquote>
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So clearly, there’s a player in Horwitz, but question marks were heading into this season. The two biggest were: A) Can he hit left-handed pitching? and B) Where the heck is he going to play?
The second question was answered quite quickly. Horwitz played left field often in Triple-A last season, but he started playing second base in 2024, which is a big reason why he was called up. So far in 2024, he has -5 Defensive Runs Saved and 0 Outs Above Average in 288 innings played at the keystone (not great), but he doesn’t have much experience at the position.
Against left-handed pitchers, though, it’s a mixed bag. In Triple-A, Horwitz slashed .250/.343/.293 in 134 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, down from his totals against righties, but he held his own. However, he’s only had 68 plate appearances against left-handed pitching in the big leagues this season, slashing .197/.265/.246.
Despite this flaw, Horwitz has done enough to earn Rookie of the Year votes. For the season, the 26-year-old is slashing .274/.364/.463 with 12 home runs (his new career-high is 16 when including his Triple-A stats). His 136 wRC+ is the best among qualified rookies, edging out Jhonkensy Noel, who only has 178 plate appearances to Horwitz’s 332. The next-best qualified rookie batter is Wilyer Abreu, who has a 120 wRC+.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Spencer Horwitz golfs one out to give the <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJays?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BlueJays</a> a late lead. 🏌️ <a href="https://t.co/b6VAhkiAqc">pic.twitter.com/b6VAhkiAqc</a>
&mdash; MLB (@MLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1832868371907404094?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 8, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Of course, it’s not all about the bat when you look at Rookie of the Year consideration. In terms of fWAR, Horwitz ranks fourth among qualified rookies with 2.0. This has a lot to do with the position he plays, as he has split time between first base and second base. That theory is backed up by Austin Wells, who leads all rookies with a 3.6 fWAR (with a 116 wRC+), as he’s an above-average catcher.
Moreover, the two outfielders have more fWAR than Horwitz. Colton Cowser has a 3.5 fWAR (116 wRC+), while Abreu has a 3.0 fWAR (120 wRC+). Both Cowser and Abreu made their teams out of Spring Training, meaning they’ve had more time to accumulate fWAR.
Normally, the Rookie of the Year goes to a position player, but there have been instances where it went to a pitcher. The last pitcher that won the Rookie of the Year for either league was Devin Williams in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. The last time a reliever won was in 2011 when Craig Kimbrel won the NL RoY with 46 saves and a 2.10 ERA.
With that said, out of any pitcher in the American League, Luis Gil has the best chance of winning the award. This season, he has a 3.18 ERA and a 3.82 FIP in 135.2 innings pitched in 26 starts. Moreover, he has a 27.5 K% and a 12.3 BB%, but has accumulated just 2.5 fWAR.
Realistically, there are four true candidates for the award: Wells, Cowser, Abreu, and Horwitz. The latter may not win it, but he’s made a name for himself in 2024 and figures to be an important player for the Blue Jays in 2025 and beyond.
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As always, you can follow me on Twitter @Ryley_L_D.

The Toronto Blue Jays might have a Rookie of the Year candidate.



I’ll give you three guesses about who leads American League rookies in fWAR. It’s not Colton Cowser, it’s not Austin Wells, it’s not Wyatt Langford, it’s not Nolan Schanuel. It is, in fact, Toronto’s 24th-round selection from the 2019 draft, Spencer Horwitz.

<a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/orelvis-martinez-homered-in-his-triple-a-debut-spencer-horwitz-showcases-his-70-grade-hit-tool-davis-schneider-continued-to-hit-for-power">Long-time readers</a> will know that I’ve always been rather high on the 26-year-old left-handed hitter. For any top Blue Jays list I did, he always ranked in the top ten, usually the top five. In fairness, though, I didn’t expect him to have the season he’s having.

After a “meh” season in Triple-A in 2022, Horwitz quickly rebuilt his stock in 2023, slashing .337/.450/.495 with ten home runs in 484 plate appearances with the Buffalo Bisons. In two stints with Toronto in 2023, Horwitz slashed .256/.341/.385 with a home run in 44 plate appearances, mainly appearing in games when the roster expanded in September.

https://twitter.com/KeeganMatheson/status/1698428967202758741

Horwitz was in a great position to earn a spot out of Spring Training, but his pre-season performance wasn’t great so the team sent him to Buffalo to start the year. Blue Jays also had aspirations of contending in 2024, meaning the spot on the roster that is now occupied bo Horwitz was originally given to veteran hitters Daniel Vogelbach and Justin Turner.

With the Bisons, Horwitz slashed a .335/.456/.514 line with four home runs in 259 plate appearances, along with a higher BB% (17%) than K% (15.8%) for a 159 wRC+. He also hit 22 doubles. Despite not playing in the minor leagues since early June, Horwitz is tied for fifth in doubles for Blue Jays minor leaguers, and held the lead until Jace Bohrofen tied him on August 20.

https://twitter.com/Ryley_L_D/status/1773778423774642616

So clearly, there’s a player in Horwitz, but question marks were heading into this season. The two biggest were: A) Can he hit left-handed pitching? and B) Where the heck is he going to play?

The second question was answered quite quickly. Horwitz played left field often in Triple-A last season, but he started playing second base in 2024, which is a big reason why he was called up. So far in 2024, he has -5 Defensive Runs Saved and 0 Outs Above Average in 288 innings played at the keystone (not great), but he doesn’t have much experience at the position.

Against left-handed pitchers, though, it’s a mixed bag. In Triple-A, Horwitz slashed .250/.343/.293 in 134 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, down from his totals against righties, but he held his own. However, he’s only had 68 plate appearances against left-handed pitching in the big leagues this season, slashing .197/.265/.246.

Despite this flaw, Horwitz has done enough to earn Rookie of the Year votes. For the season, the 26-year-old is slashing .274/.364/.463 with 12 home runs (his new career-high is 16 when including his Triple-A stats). His 136 wRC+ is the best among qualified rookies, edging out Jhonkensy Noel, who only has 178 plate appearances to Horwitz’s 332. The next-best qualified rookie batter is Wilyer Abreu, who has a 120 wRC+.

https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1832868371907404094

Of course, it’s not all about the bat when you look at Rookie of the Year consideration. In terms of fWAR, Horwitz ranks fourth among qualified rookies with 2.0. This has a lot to do with the position he plays, as he has split time between first base and second base. That theory is backed up by Austin Wells, who leads all rookies with a 3.6 fWAR (with a 116 wRC+), as he’s an above-average catcher.

Moreover, the two outfielders have more fWAR than Horwitz. Colton Cowser has a 3.5 fWAR (116 wRC+), while Abreu has a 3.0 fWAR (120 wRC+). Both Cowser and Abreu made their teams out of Spring Training, meaning they’ve had more time to accumulate fWAR.

Normally, the Rookie of the Year goes to a position player, but there have been instances where it went to a pitcher. The last pitcher that won the Rookie of the Year for either league was Devin Williams in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. The last time a reliever won was in 2011 when Craig Kimbrel won the NL RoY with 46 saves and a 2.10 ERA.

With that said, out of any pitcher in the American League, Luis Gil has the best chance of winning the award. This season, he has a 3.18 ERA and a 3.82 FIP in 135.2 innings pitched in 26 starts. Moreover, he has a 27.5 K% and a 12.3 BB%, but has accumulated just 2.5 fWAR.

Realistically, there are four true candidates for the award: Wells, Cowser, Abreu, and Horwitz. The latter may not win it, but he’s made a name for himself in 2024 and figures to be an important player for the Blue Jays in 2025 and beyond.

<hr />

As always, you can follow me on Twitter @Ryley_L_D.

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