MLB betting preview (July 21): Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (34) throws a pitch against the Athletics during the second inning at Sutter Health Park.

Photo credit: Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

Jul 21, 2025, 13:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 21, 2025, 13:25 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will open a three-game series with the New York Yankees on Monday night at Rogers Centre.

Toronto swept a three-game series with the San Francisco Giants over the weekend to extend its home winning streak to 10 games, matching a franchise record set back in 1985. Since a three-game sweep of the San Diego Padres in May, the Blue Jays have won 22 of 26 games at home.

New York returned from the All-Star break to take two of three games from the Braves in Atlanta over the weekend.

Toronto leads the season series with New York, 5-2.

Let’s take a look at the game odds for Monday’s series opener between the Yankees and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds

Yankees moneyline odds	-120
Blue Jays moneyline odds	+100
Runline odds	Yankees -1.5 (+145), Blue Jays +1.5 (-170)
Game total	Over 8.5 runs (+100), Under 8.5 (-120)
Date/time	July 21, 7:07 p.m. ET

About the Yankees (55-44 SU, 47-52 ATS, 44-53-2 o/u)

The Yankees find themselves in the top American League wild card spot entering this series with Toronto, which holds a three-game lead over the Bronx Bombers in the AL East.

If the Yankees want to make up some ground in the standings, they’ll need to start playing better on the road. They’re exactly .500 (25-25) away from Yankee Stadium and are an awful 20-30 on the runline in those games. Their pitchers have largely struggled on the road, allowing an average of 4.54 runs per game to the opposition compared to just 3.69 at home.

About the Blue Jays (58-41 SU, 58-41 ATS, 52-45-2 o/u)

According to FanGraphs’ projections, the Blue Jays now have a 46.9% chance of winning the AL East, a 91.5% chance of making the playoffs, and a 5.9% chance of winning the World Series.

However, their next seven games will be crucial in deciding the team’s fate heading into the trade deadline at the end of the month. Following these three games with the Yankees, the Blue Jays will head to Detroit for four contests with the AL Central-leading Tigers. Following that stretch, their schedule softens with series against the Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, and Colorado Rockies.

Probable starting pitchers

New York: LHP Carlos Rodon (10-6, 3.08 ERA, 10.15 K/9)

Rodon has elevated himself back to elite starter status with a solid 2025 campaign. He ranks in the 90th percentile in whiff rate (32.1%) and the 85th percentile in strikeout rate (28.2%). His slider has been absolutely devastating, holding the opposition to a .122 batting average (.161 xBA) while accounting for 71 of his 135 strikeouts. Rodon threw five innings of two-run ball against Toronto last month, but he did walk three batters.

Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (6-7, 4.19 ERA, 8.53 K/9)

After a strong May (2.81 ERA), Gausman has struggled in June (5.46) and July (4.02 ERA) while allowing opponents to hit a lofty .281 against him in three starts this month. This will be the third time he’s faced the Yankees this season, and he’s had mixed results in his previous two outings against them. He held New York to two runs on six hits over five innings a few weeks ago but struggled back on April 27, allowing the Yankees to put six runs up on the board over 2 2/3 innings.

Notable injuries

Outfielder Daulton Varsho (hamstring), outfielder Anthony Santander (shoulder), and infielder Andres Gimenez (ankle) are on the injured list for Toronto. Pitchers Bowden Francis (shoulder) and Yimi Garcia (ankle) are also out for the Blue Jays.

Pitchers Gerrit Cole (elbow), Luis Gil (lat), and Ryan Yarbrough (oblique) are on the shelf for New York. Pitcher Max Fried is also day-to-day with a blister issue.

Weather

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 22 C and clear skies in Toronto. Winds will blow out to right field at 7 mph.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays betting trends

The over is 14-3 in New York’s last 17 games.
The over is 7-3 in the past 10 meetings between these teams.
The Yankees have hit the team total over in 11 of their last 15 games.
The Blue Jays have the best home runline record in the majors this season (32-19).

Yankees vs. Blue Jays player prop trends

Gausman has walked two or more batters in three straight starts and seven of his last 10. He’s around -190 to walk over 1.5 batters.
Giancarlo Stanton has hit safely in four straight games and 15 of his last 20. He’s around -150 to get a hit.
Addison Barger has recorded over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in four straight games and 15 of his last 20. He’s +115 to exceed that mark Monday.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bet

Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases: +100 for one unit (best odds @ PointsBet). Judge has very impressive splits against Gausman: .372 batting average, six home runs, 12 RBIs, and a 1.369 OPS in 43 career at-bats. He’s exceeded this mark in 58% of his games this year, making this an enticing bet at even money odds. Judge is also slashing an impressive .340/.457/.774 this month.