Blue Jays 2024 Mid-Season Report Cards: The Bullpen

Photo credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
By Evan Stack
Jul 19, 2024, 08:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 19, 2024, 07:51 EDT
The final chapter of the 2024 first-half report cards visits the bullpen, a group that has seen its fair share of volatility this year. Tim Mayza, who was the longest-tenured Blue Jay entering this season, was DFA’d last month, Erik Swanson is still in Buffalo trying to figure things out, and Jordan Romano’s season has been derailed by an elbow injury. Furthermore, Yimi García, who had an All-Star case brewing at one point this season, has also been dealing with an elbow injury, although his return seems far more imminent than Romano’s.
Toronto’s bullpen has a few pieces that could become trade chips any day now, and that includes García. With that being said, there’s an opportunity for guys to showcase their talents in front of the coaches and upper management. Brendon Little (highlighted below) and Ryan Burr (only pitches in six games), for instance, have shown some positive signs, and I’d expect they’ll be with the team for the remainder of the season unless no one gets moved.
Trevor Richards
Grade: B-
Richards is a tough grade to give because the Blue Jays have used him in so many roles this season. After Alek Manoah’s injury, Richards was flawless in his two starts (albeit they were for a combined four and a third innings), and he’s been involved in long relief, setup, and save situation roles as well. In total, Richards has been solid in his 42 games, pitching to a 3.62 ERA, 0.946 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, and 3.4 BB/9.
Richards found a really nice rhythm in May and June of this season, collecting a 1.88 ERA, 25 strikeouts, and 22 scoreless outings within those two months. He had a rough ending to the first half, however, allowing seven earned runs and blowing two saves on the road trip out west. His changeup experienced a little bit of decline between this year and last, as the 31.7% whiff rate he has this year with the pitch is 16% less than what it was a year ago. Furthermore, the Offspeed Run Value per Baseball Savant has Richards in the 47th percentile, a major drop off from the 94th percentile ranking with which he finished last year.
Chad Green
Grade: A-
Green had been pitching behind Aroldis Chapman and Clay Holmes during his time in New York, so this is the first time in his career that he has been the featured closer. In fact, he needs just two more games finished and one more save to set career highs in both of those areas. Despite missing some time with a right teres major muscle strain, Green has held a 2.08 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, an 8.3 K/9, and six saves in 26 appearances this season.
Green had quickly risen to the top of the reliever totem pole with injuries to Jordan Romano and Yimi Garcia, as well as Erik Swanson being optioned to Buffalo. He’s mainly worked with his fastball and slider, and despite a year-over-year decrease in his strikeout percentage and increase in hard-hit rate, Green has been able to limit the damage. In 15 high-leverage appearances this season, Green is allowing only a .212/.308/.364 slash line to opposing hitters and his numbers with the bases occupied are very similar.
Génesis Cabrera
Grade: B
It was not a good start to the season for Cabrera, who held a 9.00 ERA and an opponent’s OPS of 1.038 through his first eight appearances. Couple that with Tim Mayza’s struggles, and the Blue Jays had a hard time playing the “matchups” game when it came to utilizing their lefties. Quietly, however, Cabrera has turned it around since then, amassing a 2.22 ERA in his next 31 outings. The 5.12 FIP and 1.431 WHIP are still pretty concerning, and the strikeouts have gone down compared to last year. Those are the areas that are keeping him from sniffing A- territory, but he’s putting up a lot of zeros lately, and that’s what John Schneider can live with.
Brendon Little
Grade: B-
Little had only pitched in one major league game prior to this season, and despite the 4.50 ERA he’s amassed through the first half, he has become a valuable lefty in this bullpen, especially with Mayza having a disappointing season. For instance, in multiple games against the Red Sox this year, John Schneider and Pete Walker have opted for Little to face Rafael Devers with runners on base and two outs. Both times, Little struck him out. He also had an outing against Seattle on July 7th in which he inherited the bases loaded and J.P. Crawford at the dish in the bottom of the 8th. Little got the job done with a groundout.
He’s been solid against lefties this season, giving up a measly .216/.256/.297 slash line to opponents, but once he faces righties, those numbers start to elevate (i.e. an .816 OPS). Little is still only 27 years old and there’s still a lot of room for growth for him. If he can build on a promising first half, Toronto may have gotten a steal here given they acquired him for cash considerations during the offseason. The B- may be a little too generous, but I like what I’ve seen.
Bowden Francis
Grade: D
One of the most interesting players entering Spring Training and the regular season, Francis struggled out of the gate in his first stint as a starter. He was thrown in the fire immediately, facing the Astros and Yankees on the road as his first two starts of his career. Francis allowed 12 earned runs including four home runs and 12 hits between those two starts, and the Blue Jays decided to give Yariel Rodríguez a chance at the fifth spot in the rotation.
After a few outings out of the bullpen, Francis missed all of May with a forearm injury, but upon his return, he found a little bit of a groove with six scoreless innings of his eight June outings. He still had two relief outings in which he gave up three and four runs, respectively, and coupled with the rough start he had, that’s kept the ERA pretty high. In total, Francis has a 5.82 ERA in 16 total games, including a 1.47 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, and 3.3 BB/9.
Nate Pearson
Grade: C
Pearson is tied for second amongst Blue Jays relievers in appearances with 39, and he’s had a prime opportunity to make an impression on the team given how many injuries this bullpen is dealing with. Through those appearances, however, Pearson has a 5.54 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, and a 3.6 BB/9. He’s been thrown in a lot of situational at-bats that require only facing a batter or two, and he’s also been asked to work multiple innings if need be. While he’s had glimpses of him performing to his ceiling, he’s also had some duds that offset those good outings. The high-leverage at-bats haven’t been good to him either, as opponents are hitting .300/.324/.500 in those situations.
The fastball velocity is still prominent, and he’s even generated a 42% whiff rate on his slider. Watching him command those pitches is fun to watch, but he hasn’t been able to put together a prolonged stretch of consistent production.
Zach Pop
Grade: D-
One of Toronto’s centrepieces of the 2022 trade deadline has had a rough go of it during the first half of this season. Pop has pitched in 34 games this season, posting a 5.90 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, a 6.34 FIP, and a feeble 5.9 K/9. The strikeout percentage is dangerously close to being a career-low for Pop, and while the “stuff” is still there and the ground ball rate is still prominent, opponents are having little trouble doing damage. That is mainly the case for Pop’s power sinker, a pitch in which opposing hitters are boasting a .279 batting average and .500 slugging percentage against.
Going through his game logs, Pop has sprinkled in some scoreless outings, but with those “steps forward” have come multiple “steps back” shortly after. When it comes to leverage, Pop is struggling the most when the stakes are at their lowest. In low-leverage situations this season, opponents are hitting .271/.333/.543 with five homers and four doubles against him. As I mentioned earlier, Pop has really talented stuff, but this season has gotten away from him quickly.
