Of all the trades the Blue Jays made at the 2023 trade deadline, who would’ve thought it was the trade for a reliever who was designated for assignment that would be the most impactful for the Blue Jays today?

The Blue Jays completed three trades with the St. Louis Cardinals last year, but it was the acquisition of left-handed reliever Genesis Cabrera that paid the most dividends.

At the time, it was a nothing trade for a bullpen arm with a 5.06 ERA. But in the year-plus of tenure with the Blue Jays, he’s been a calming force in a dumpster fire of a bullpen. And this year, he blossomed into a reliable reliever in a rotating cast of very unreliable relievers.

By comparison to every other reliever in the Blue Jays bullpen in 2024, Cabrera looked like Mariano Rivera. But digging a little further into the numbers, it turns out Cabrera was one of only two Blue Jays relief pitchers with an ERA+ better than 100 (Chad Green was the other).

Making 69 appearances, Cabrera’s workload spiked at 62.2 innings as John Schneider’s de facto lefty out of the bullpen in 2024. While Cabrera was relegated to more of a middle relief/middle leverage role last year, by sheer need, he became a seventh and eighth inning guy this season.

Cabrera had a rough start to the season, getting rocked for three earned runs and giving up two home runs to the Houston Astros during the second game of the season, but calmed down from there, posting his best numbers of the year from May through August.

The most notable moment of Cabrera’s season came just a few days prior to that appearance, a game where he shoved Jose Caballero. MLB suspended Cabrera for three games for his actions following this altercation.

Much like Green, Cabrera’s expected numbers were about a run higher than his actual peripherals, but he kept the ball on the ground at a decent rate and limited his meltdown performances.

While his strikeout rate went down a tick year-over-year, decreasing by 5.8%, Cabrera also cut his hard-hit rate by 6.6% compared to 2023. Armed with his cutter, a pitch he barely used until arriving with the Blue Jays in 2023, Cabrera now has a deadly out pitch he can put batters away with.

Batters only hit .202 on Cabrera’s cutter this year and slugged .263 off that pitch, making it one of the most deadly cutters on the Blue Jays pitching staff. Only Chris Bassitt’s cutter (.188 AVG against) was better in 2024.

While Cabrera’s role was elevated this past season due to implosions around him in the bullpen, it stands to reason he may take a step backwards in 2025 if the front office focuses resources on improving the bullpen next year.

According to both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, Cabrera was worth negative Wins Above Replacement this season, underscoring that he may have looked like a decent reliever by comparison to other Blue Jays pitchers, but not overall to his peers across baseball.

Brendon Little’s spot on the roster next year isn’t a given, but Cabrera still has the inside track as the number-one lefty in Toronto’s bullpen for the 2025 campaign. Heading into this season, Tim Mayza occupied that lefty role, then he crashed and burned and left the door open for Cabrera to walk through.

On a competitive team with a much-improved bullpen, Cabrera should slot in as maybe the number four or five guy on the depth chart, not the number two option out of the bullpen for the manager. Cabrera has made strides since joining the Blue Jays, but he has a long way to go when it comes to consistently getting big outs in big situations.

Cabrera is first-year arbitration-eligible in 2025, which means his salary is likely to double from $1.513 million into the $3 million range. For a team that doesn’t have a blank cheque budget to overhaul their bullpen, $3 million for Cabrera seems like a fair amount for an 18-22% strikeout pitcher who throws from the left side.

There’s always the chance he could be trade bait, but much like his counterpart in Green, Cabrera’s value is fairly low right now. And the Blue Jays should emphasize trading for relief pitcher depth, not trading away.

One way or another, Toronto’s bullpen will look very different in 2025, but expect Cabrera to return with an inside track as one of the few existing Blue Jays relief pitchers who shouldn’t have to worry about their spot on the roster this coming season.