Can Erik Swanson continue the good second half he had last season?

This is Blue Jays Nation’s annual 40-man Roster Review, where we look at the players on the Blue Jays’ 40-man roster. We’ll look at how the player performed in 2024, his season projections for the 2025 season, and any storylines heading into this coming season. In this article, we’ll look at Erik Swanson.
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In 2022 with the Seattle Mariners, Erik Swanson had a 1.68 ERA and a 1.85 FIP in 53.2 innings pitched, with a 34 K% and a 4.9 BB%. Shortly after the season ended, the Mariners traded him and prospect Adam Macko to the Blue Jays in exchange for Teoscar Hernández.
Swanson found success in his first season as the Blue Jays’ setup man, posting a 2.97 ERA and a 3.51 FIP in 66.2 innings pitched, with 29 holds and two blown saves. His K% dropped slightly to 28.6%, while his BB% rose to 8%. Overall, the 2023 season was still a successful season for Swanson.
The reliever’s Spring Training was hellish, with the 31-year-old eventually starting on the Injured List. In 2024, Swanson finished with a 5.03 ERA and a 6.06 FIP in 39.1 innings pitched with the Blue Jays, eventually being optioned to Triple-A Buffalo where he didn’t have great success either.
However, let’s break down his 2024 season. From the start of the season (Apr. 17 for Swanson) until Jun. 26, he had a 9.20 ERA and a 7.94 FIP in 14.2 innings pitched, with a 14.3 K% and a 5.7 BB%. After struggling in Triple-A, Swanson was recalled and pitched on Jul. 20, authoring a 2.55 ERA and a 4.96 FIP (3.54 xFIP) in 24.2 innings pitched to end the season. Moreover, he had a 27.6 K% and a 10.2 BB%.
<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/erik-swanson/16587/stats?position=P">Swanson’s projection according to Fangraphs</a> is a middle ground between the 2023 and 2024 seasons. Steamer projects him to post a 4.05 ERA and a 4.13 FIP in 61 innings pitched, with a 22.9 K% and an 8.2 BB%. On the other hand, OOPSY has Swanson posting a 3.96 ERA and a 4.19 FIP in 61 innings pitched with a 22.8 K% and an 8.9 BB%.
Of course, the storyline coming into 2025 for Swanson is whether or not he performs like he did in 2023 and the end of the 2024 season, or the start of the 2024 season. My instinct tells me it’ll be the former, meaning he’ll be a useful relief option for the Blue Jays.
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As always, you can follow me on Bluesky @ryleydelaney.bsky.social.
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Can Erik Swanson continue the good second half he had last season?



This is Blue Jays Nation’s annual 40-man Roster Review, where we look at the players on the Blue Jays’ 40-man roster. We’ll look at how the player performed in 2024, his season projections for the 2025 season, and any storylines heading into this coming season. In this article, we’ll look at Erik Swanson.
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In 2022 with the Seattle Mariners, Erik Swanson had a 1.68 ERA and a 1.85 FIP in 53.2 innings pitched, with a 34 K% and a 4.9 BB%. Shortly after the season ended, the Mariners traded him and prospect Adam Macko to the Blue Jays in exchange for Teoscar Hernández.

Swanson found success in his first season as the Blue Jays’ setup man, posting a 2.97 ERA and a 3.51 FIP in 66.2 innings pitched, with 29 holds and two blown saves. His K% dropped slightly to 28.6%, while his BB% rose to 8%. Overall, the 2023 season was still a successful season for Swanson.

The reliever’s Spring Training was hellish, with the 31-year-old eventually starting on the Injured List. In 2024, Swanson finished with a 5.03 ERA and a 6.06 FIP in 39.1 innings pitched with the Blue Jays, eventually being optioned to Triple-A Buffalo where he didn’t have great success either.

However, let’s break down his 2024 season. From the start of the season (Apr. 17 for Swanson) until Jun. 26, he had a 9.20 ERA and a 7.94 FIP in 14.2 innings pitched, with a 14.3 K% and a 5.7 BB%. After struggling in Triple-A, Swanson was recalled and pitched on Jul. 20, authoring a 2.55 ERA and a 4.96 FIP (3.54 xFIP) in 24.2 innings pitched to end the season. Moreover, he had a 27.6 K% and a 10.2 BB%.

<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/erik-swanson/16587/stats?position=P">Swanson’s projection according to Fangraphs</a> is a middle ground between the 2023 and 2024 seasons. Steamer projects him to post a 4.05 ERA and a 4.13 FIP in 61 innings pitched, with a 22.9 K% and an 8.2 BB%. On the other hand, OOPSY has Swanson posting a 3.96 ERA and a 4.19 FIP in 61 innings pitched with a 22.8 K% and an 8.9 BB%.

Of course, the storyline coming into 2025 for Swanson is whether or not he performs like he did in 2023 and the end of the 2024 season, or the start of the 2024 season. My instinct tells me it’ll be the former, meaning he’ll be a useful relief option for the Blue Jays.

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As always, you can follow me on Bluesky @ryleydelaney.bsky.social.

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