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Blue Jays: Can José Berríos bounce back in 2026?
Toronto
Photo credit: Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Ben Wrixon
Feb 24, 2026, 13:00 ESTUpdated: Feb 24, 2026, 11:27 EST
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Blue Jays starter José Berríos had a rough 2025 on and off the field.
The 4.17 ERA and 1.301 WHIP he recorded in his 30 starts were the second-highest of his career, and he landed on the injured list for the first time as a big leaguer. He also made headlines for the wrong reasons after choosing to go home rather than support teammates on the bench during the World Series. 
Many assumed the Blue Jays would try to trade Berríos this offseason. However, if they did shop him around, they were unable to find a taker, whether it be because of his declining performance or his massive contract, or perhaps a combination of all three. He’s since apologized and appears as if he will begin the season in the starting rotation with Shane Bieber sidelined. 
So, with all that being said, is there any reason to believe Berríos can bounce back? 
He didn’t inspire much confidence during his first Spring Training start on Monday against the New York Mets, allowing two runs on three hits through two-and-two-thirds of an inning. However, it’s far too early to conclude based solely on that performance.
The bigger issue is Berríos’ Baseball Savant page from 2025 is bluer than his jersey. His expected ERA of 4.80 suggests he actually got lucky last year, which isn’t great considering his actual results. Somewhat more encouraging is that his profile doesn’t look all that different from 2024 when he posted a solid 3.60 ERA (114 ERA+) in 192 ⅓ innings pitched. 
The two biggest differences between last season’s version of Berríos and the one we saw succeed the year before were command and fastball velocity. 
Berríos’ walk rate jumped from 6.9% to 8% in 2025, which equated to his worst BB/9 (3.0) since the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. Issuing free passes is a recipe for disaster when opponents are barrelling you a career-high 11.3% of the time. 
Also concerning was that Berríos lost heat on his fastballs. His sinker sat at just 92.2 mph last season after averaging 93.4 mph in 2024. His four-seamer, meanwhile, dropped from 94.1 mph to just 93 mph. He fell from the 41st to the 22nd percentile in fastball velocity. 
The only way Berríos is turning things around is if he gets his fastball back. Throwing 92 mph heaters doesn’t cut it in today’s game unless you have elite command, which Berríos didn’t even have during his best seasons with the Minnesota Twins. 
Are injuries to blame? It’s possible that the elbow and bicep tendon inflammation that ultimately forced Berríos onto the injured list affected his ability to let it rip. He might have been dialling things back to preserve his arm and avoid making things worse. 
The good news for the Blue Jays is that they’ve seen Berríos bounce back after a tough year before. He gave up an American League-worst 100 earned runs in 2022, then responded with his best season as a Blue Jay the following year in 2023. He has experience proving his doubters wrong after they have written him off. 
The issue is that Berríos actually had good command and velocity in 2022. The underlying tools were better; it was his approach that needed refining. He’s working with inferior tools compared to when he rediscovered himself in Toronto the first time around. 
The most likely outcome is that we’ve simply seen the best of Berríos—but a turnaround is possible if better health brings with it a better fastball.

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