The Toronto Blue Jays officially signed Dylan Cease, filling a hole in the rotation that is now arguably one of the strongest in the American League.

Joining Cease in the starting five are Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, and Jose Berrios, a formidable group that each brings something a little bit different to the table in how they get the job done. It’s a good mix of youth and veteran status that should be pretty strikeout-heavy while beating you with offspeed pitches, whether it’s a fastball, splitter, changeup, or slider.

However, while the rotation seems set in stone or at least has the pieces to start the 2026 campaign, the narrative of a trade involving Berrios continues to circle this winter, a hot stove rumour that continues to be floated by some who follow the team closely. A rumour that has also gained some steam with the recent Ponce signing as well.

For a group that will potentially lose Gausman and Bieber next winter, moving Berrios (who has a player option of his own) seems like a risky move when it comes to rotation security for the future, although the recent additions make this less of an issue compared to a week ago.

Ricky Tiedemann is certainly up there in terms of prospects knocking on the big league door, although he is coming off Tommy John surgery and not pitching all last season, so ramping him up too quickly is likely not in the cards. There is also Adam Macko, Lazaro Estrada and a handful of other prospects in the mix, although they might be too much of a risk to give some length in the rotation next year when the Jays are looking for another long postseason run.

Eric Lauer and Bowden Francis are also potential options, and while Lauer has rightfully inserted himself in the picture after a career-best campaign, gambling on a return to this 2025 form might be too rich for the Jays brass, especially if Francis struggles again this year and can’t cover the fallout. Depth in the form of pitching is coming up the pipeline in Gage Stanifer and Johnny King, but they are years away from the big league stage, barring a Yesavage-like ascent in 2026.

The Jays are also adding another interesting name into the mix in Cody Ponce, who is reportedly joining the Jays on a three-year deal and could be a name to watch for a rotation spot as well. He went overseas to improve his stock and exceeded all expectations, and now finds himself in the Jays’ pitching depth charts as a name to keep an eye on for the rotation.

With the recent signings, Ponce seems like the next in line for a rotation spot if Berrios ends up staying with the Blue Jays into the 2026 season, although Lauer is another interesting name in the mix alongside the KBO MVP on the team’s depth charts. Both could also end up in the bullpen to start the new campaign, although the hot stove gained a little steam following the news earlier today when it comes to what the club may do with Berrios.

With all this in mind, trading Berrios seems like an odd move from those looking from outside the Blue Jays’ scope, although it makes sense for a couple of reasons.

First and foremost is the money owed, which is three years and $66 million. That’s a large chunk of change for a pitcher who owns a 4.09 ERA and a 4.36 FIP across 790 1/3 innings under the Blue Jays banner and fell out of the Jays’ favour towards the end of the 2025 season.

Starting pitching has been paid a premium in free agency as of late – Sean Manaea (3 yrs/$75 million), Nathan Eovaldi (3 yrs/$75 million), Yusei Kikuchi (3 yrs/$63.675 million), and Nick Pivetta (4 yrs/$55 million) – being examples from last season, so there might be a team wanting to take a chance on Berrios bouncing back after a down campaign in 2025. The Jays will have to eat some of the contract while also navigating his eight-team no-trade list and player option following next winter if they go down this avenue, but his relatively healthy track record and ability to go deep into games are the likely assets that Toronto will have to try and sell to interested buyers. Berrios still has some trade value in all of this, although coming off a down year doesn’t help.

Moving his contract opens up some cap space for the Jays to play with, even if the organization has to send some cash to get the deal done. It’s one less contract to worry about eating into the CBT, depending on who the Jays acquire in return.

Rogers appears to be giving the front office some wiggle room to spend, evidenced by the Cease contract, the recent Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extension, the recent Ponce signing, and the ties to premium free agents in Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette, so spending some of that recent postseason cash makes sense for the Jays.

While it remains to be seen if the Jays are wanting to focus their offseason priorities now with the rotation likely done and addressed with, moving Berrios’s contract helps in regards to spending today without his money hitting the CBT and in terms of future money owed, and the fallback plan is there in Ponce, Lauer, or Francis to give the Jays a bonafide starter at the back end of the rotation who isn’t making $20+ million a year.

Second is the fit in the rotation/roster. 

Berrios struggled in 2025, posting a 4.17 ERA and a 4.65 FIP across 166 innings while also landing on the IL late in the year with elbow inflammation, the first injury stint of his career.

The right-hander was inconsistent for most of the campaign, and the Jays moved him to the bullpen late in the year because of the emergence of Yesavage and with Shane Bieber in the picture, while it also appeared that Berrios was battling something, which may have been that elbow issue all along. Once he landed on the IL, he didn’t appear for the Jays again down the stretch, including the postseason. That’s not to say that there is a rift between player and organization, although he noted to reporters about being disappointed in the bullpen demotion, and he understood the move by manager John Schneider.

However, the fact that he became the odd man out when Yesavage joined the team seems a bit telling, although from a numbers perspective, the team was better off using Lauer in that spot compared to the right-hander, and even the southpaw was in the bullpen at the time. The return of Bieber on a team-friendly contract for 2026 and the addition of Ponce make a Berrios trade that much easier to swallow, especially since the Jays have some other options in Lauer and Francis to turn to if needed in a pinch.

While trading the veteran hurler might be an idea worth exploring, the underlying formalities attached to his contract make finding a trade partner that much more difficult, especially since his 2025 season was nothing spectacular. He also likely will opt into his deal next winter unless he posts a Cy Young-calibre season, meaning whoever takes on his deal is in it for the next three years unless Berrios wishes to test the market, which is another hurdle in its own right with the player option.

In a perfect world, the Jays trade Berrios, eat some of the deal, and then go out and spend big on the free agent front to get another bat or two with the rotation now shored up with the recent additions. The focus is likely shifting now to roster players and the bullpen, as spending big on another starter likely isn’t in the cards unless Rogers is just giving the front office blank checks all day, which seems unlikely even with the recent postseason success in their back pocket.

All the hurdles with Berrios’s contract make this a lot tougher than just clicking ‘accept’ on MLB The Show, but a willing trade partner looking for a bounce-back campaign from the right-hander opens the doors for the Jays to make some other moves, which would need to happen if they do indeed move on from the right-hander.

Trading Berrios and then missing out on other premium free agents or making limited upgrades across the roster might come back to haunt Toronto, especially if they run into rotation issues or can’t replicate their top-notch contact numbers this coming year. Adding Cease and Ponce are excellent ways to kick off the winter months, but now they need to improve the roster in terms of bats – whether that’s bringing Bichette back or adding another bat or two – and some help for the bullpen.

Nobody can predict what will happen over the next few months, but if Ross Atkins does end up trading Berrios away, they will need to keep the pedal to the floor on the free agent and trading front to improve this team. The signs are there, considering their noted aggressiveness out of the gate, but they need to keep that momentum going forward, especially if they want to make another World Series appearance in short order.

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