It’s been a long offseason for Blue Jays fans, and just when it looked like there might be some legitimate room for optimism heading into the 2025 campaign, the self-imposed deadline for the extension of Vladimir Guerrero Jr’s contract has now come and gone.

As much as it stung to believe that Shohei Ohtani was on his way to Toronto to sign with the Blue Jays a year ago, or that they were finalists for Juan Soto, or even that they had a puncher’s chance of signing Rōki Sasaki, none of those scenarios sting quite like the idea of losing Guerrero Jr. in free agency a year from now. Sure, it’s still possible that the Jays can re-sign the face of their franchise and keep him in the organization for the rest of his career, but their best chance to ensure that happened was before the other 29 teams could get involved in the bidding. That window has now closed.

As Blue Jays’ GM Ross Atkins faced the media on Tuesday morning, the usual “front office speak” didn’t seem to land as it so often has during his tenure in Toronto. There’s no time for dancing around the issue, as Blue Jays fans want some answers.

While Atkins used familiar terms like “our evaluation”, and tried his best to explain how he and his team fumbled handling the contract of their franchise player, Sportsnet’s Hazel Mae hit the nail on the head with exactly the question I would have asked if I had been in that media scrum. Mae asked:

How do you reconcile that, Mr. Atkins?

Of all the questions that could be asked of the Blue Jays front office right now, this is the one that stands out for me. You have a generational superstar who has repeatedly expressed his desire to stay in Toronto for the remainder of his career. This isn’t a new development either, as Guerrero Jr. has been saying that for a few years now. The 4x All-Star also gave them a deadline for when he wanted to see a deal done, and reportedly even gave them the figures it would require to get him to sign on the dotted line.

I understand that these things are a negotiation and that the Blue Jays probably hoped they could talk his camp down a little from their demands, or at least structure a new deal in a more club-friendly way. However, it’s inconceivable to me that they got to the 11th hour and were still far enough apart that this whole thing broke down. If the ask was so astronomical that there was no way the Blue Jays could ever meet it, then he should have been traded a long time ago.

But going back to Mae’s question, it’s very difficult to understand that the Blue Jays had the money to make competitive offers for Ohtani and Soto, but chose not to open their wallets enough to retain their homegrown superstar. I do not doubt that Guerrero Jr.’s camp was asking for more than what they were comfortable paying. That’s what happens when the player has all the leverage. However, this is about more than just the value of one player.

This is about the direction of a franchise, and right now we’re getting some incredibly mixed signals. Ownership has approved a payroll that obliterates any previous franchise record, so this isn’t about being “cheap”. They also spent an exorbitant amount on renovating the Rogers Centre, in the neighbourhood of $400 million. It’s hard to fathom that ownership would approve that kind of spending and then let the team go into a rebuild just two seasons later.

However, when I take a step back and look at the whole picture, 2025 almost feels like a last hurrah for this group now that Guerrero Jr. is set to become a free agent at season’s end. Both he and Bo Bichette will be able to test the market, and they won’t be alone. Chris Bassitt is in the final year of his contract, and Kevin Gausman will hit the open market at the end of the 2026 season. José Berríos is signed until the end of the 2028 season, but he has an opt-out that he could exercise in two years that would allow him to leave with Gausman. Anthony Santander could opt out after 2027. Even Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk could be gone in two years’ time. There’s no debating that the window for this group is nearing its end.

Unfortunately, the most no-brainer way to bridge the gap to the next generation of this franchise is now one step closer to playing in a different uniform. Maybe he’s not on quite the slam-dunk Hall of Fame path that Ohtani or Soto are travelling, but in terms of value to the franchise, the Blue Jays simply could not and cannot afford to let Guerrero Jr. get away, regardless of the cost. We know that the money is there after the superstar pursuits of the last year or so, which means this is a choice that Atkins and his team somehow have to reconcile.