The countdowns, the suspense, and the rumours of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s self-imposed contract extension deadline have come to a close. Don’t get me wrong, suspense and rumours will still be a part of this ongoing situation, but the first physical date put on Guerrero Jr.’s next contract has arrived, and no deal was done.

The two-time Silver Slugger award winner and four-time All-Star is still a Blue Jay for 2025, but let’s dive into the fallout of the past 24 hours in regards to Guerrero Jr., the team, and the front office.

For starters, I think the Blue Jays owe him a “thank you” to some extent. After seeing the amount of money that is being given out in free agency, what incentive did he have to even listen to the Blue Jays? Whatever opinion you have on what Guerrero Jr. is worth, more likely than not, there’s a team out there willing to see eye to eye on his cost. The New York Mets, for example, may need a first baseman next season if Pete Alonso opts out of his current deal. Unless Guerrero Jr. is asking for Soto-like money, I’d bet Steve Cohen is willing to pay up.

Secondly, it’ll be interesting to see how much Guerrero Jr. and his representation hold up their end of their self-imposed “deadline”. He didn’t want this to become a distraction throughout the 2025 season, and that’s completely understandable. He wants to be locked in on this year for the sake of himself and his teammates. Kudos to him for having that mentality.

But, he told reporters today through his translator Hector Lebron that he “won’t close the door if it’s a realistic offer.” He also reiterated that he would do what he could to stay in Toronto. So, while the self-imposed deadline was a thing, is he going to say “No” if the Blue Jays come back in a week with an offer he and his group are looking for? The Blue Jays, too, remain motivated, so it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if discussions are peppered into Spring Training and the regular season.

Finally, this puts some added pressure on Guerrero Jr. Any contract season has some level of pressure as you’re playing for your next deal, but now, Guerrero Jr. has a bag of chips on his shoulder and will look to make the Blue Jays look foolish for not meeting his number. On the other hand, if he has another 2.0 bWAR season like he had in 2023, the Blue Jays may walk away looking like the smart ones in the room, and Guerrero Jr. might see fewer offers in free agency.

In the short term, Guerrero Jr. is still a Blue Jay for this season, and with the $240 million payroll that the team is running, they are in line to try and compete this season. Guerrero Jr. will obviously still play a massive part in that, and his level of play will carry some weight on how the Blue Jays perform.

For the first time since 2022, the Blue Jays have a cleanup hitter with 30+ home run potential in Anthony Santander. Fans will finally get to see how that will impact Guerrero Jr., as his numbers excelled hitting next to the likes of Marcus Semien and Teoscar Hernández between 2021 and 2022. Of course, there’s no guarantee that Guerrero Jr. is going to flourish solely because of Santander, but if the Blue Jays want to compete in the AL East, that was the kind of move they needed to make. Now, for the time being, this season is all we’ll get to see how much Santander’s presence in the lineup impacts Guerrero Jr.’s play in Toronto.

Another factor with the Blue Jays is what this means for shortstop Bo Bichette, who is also set to enter free agency for the first time next offseason. Unlike Guerrero Jr., Bichette hasn’t set any deadlines (that we know of), but he has expressed multiple times how much he wants to play with Guerrero Jr. for his entire career. If Guerrero Jr. is as good as gone, does that mean the same for Bichette?

Finally, there is a fear of the unknown if Guerrero Jr. isn’t a part of this team long-term. If Guerrero Jr. and Bichette are elsewhere next season, does this trigger an immediate reset, whether it’s the players, coaches, or front office personnel? This type of decision doesn’t get made overnight, and there’s too much time for things to happen, but a direction of the franchise will need to be sought as the farm system doesn’t boast top-of-the-line talent relative to Toronto’s American League counterparts.

Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro have put themselves in the crosshairs of receiving scrutiny for other endeavors, but in this case, we can’t make a judgment if we don’t know the number Guerrero Jr. was and is looking for.

Guerrero Jr. told reporters that the Blue Jays were not close to what he was looking for, but Atkins also pointed out the team’s offer would’ve made Guerrero Jr. one of the highest-paid players in baseball, as well as broken Blue Jays records. Shapiro also pointed out that the team went beyond their evaluations because of Guerrero Jr.’s impact on the team, so the front office was willing to be flexible to an extent.

To echo another one of Shapiro’s sentiments from his respective presser, being “close” doesn’t matter. They didn’t get the deal done. And to this point, the only contract extensions that this regime has executed belong to Randal Grichuk and José Berrios (not including Bichette and Matt Chapman’s extensions as it only took them until the end of arbitration years). This is a front office that built a lot of minor league depth earlier in their tenure, but it has led to zero playoff wins. Does it say more about their evaluation of talent that has limited the amount of team success, and hence, the number of players signed to long-term deals? Or are their contract negotiations in need of some work?

Many will wonder if this puts any jobs in jeopardy. While this situation could wind up putting a dark cloud over this season, we can’t judge this as a fireable offense unless the specifics of these negotiations go public. This is a results-oriented business, so Atkins and Shapiro’s ultimate failure would be not winning a playoff game in their near-10-year tenure if they were unable to do so this season. How they navigate this season in regards to the future of the club will be interesting to see, but as I said, it’d be difficult to defend the lack of postseason success with the payroll they have been allowed to hold.

Atkins and Shapiro didn’t seem like they were worried about trading Guerrero Jr., and I think it stays that way until they know for sure that contract talks are put to rest for good.

Again, they can still revisit this with Guerrero Jr. and his camp if they are willing to listen. It’s not over until it’s over. But until then, the question marks around this team will be aplenty.

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