Toronto’s farm system has had a dark cloud over the past couple of years, largely due to its industry rank and injuries to its most intriguing pitching prospects. While those bits of information are still prominent, we’re starting to see encouraging storylines to kick off the 2025 season. Trey Yesavage is coming off a 10-strikeout start, Khal Stephen has allowed only three runs through four starts, Alan Roden cracked the major league roster out of spring training, and Jace Bohrofen is off to a great start at New Hampshire.
Another prospect with tremendous upside is shortstop Arjun Nimmala, Toronto’s first-round pick from the 2023 MLB Draft. and the #1 ranked prospect in the Jays system. Nimmala was drafted at just 17 years old, and his decision to sign with the Blue Jays meant he would forgo a previous commitment to play college baseball at Florida State University in Tallahassee, FL.
After appearing in just nine games with the Florida Complex League Blue Jays to conclude the 2023 season, Nimmala would play his first “full” major league season in 2024, splitting 91 games between the FCL Blue Jays and single-A Dunedin. Although starting the year with Dunedin, he was transferred to the Development List after posting a slash line of .167/.280/.306 and a 34% strikeout rate in 53 games with the tougher assignment. He played in eight games with the FCL squad before making his way back to Dunedin, and he was able to finish the season on a high note, slashing .264/.329/.557 with 12 home runs and 36 RBIs over his final 50 games of the season.
Nimmala was assigned to high-A Vancouver to kick off his 2025 campaign, and to this point, he’s carried over similar numbers to how he ended his previous season. In 14 games with the Canadians, Nimmala is hitting .276/.333/.448 with a pair of home runs, three RBIs, four doubles and a stolen base. He’s also logged just a single error in 24 chances to this point at shortstop, a throwing error during the second game of the season.
With a prospect as highly touted as Nimmala, his journey through the minor leagues will certainly be monitored by Blue Jays fans, as well as other prospect-watchers throughout baseball. With that being said, when could we see Nimmala earn a promotion to double-A New Hampshire?
The said promotion would be dependent on performance, first and foremost. Between the conclusion of last year and the start of this year, Nimmala has given the Blue Jays solid numbers across both A-ball levels. He’s also shown the club how he handles a setback when things aren’t going his way. It’s also important to remember that Nimmala is still only 19 years old, and had he decided to attend Florida State, he’d be in the heart of his college years right now. In the year and a half that he’s been with the organization, Nimmala has only logged action in 114 minor league games, with a handful of spring training games as well.
Drafting and/or signing baseball players out of high school is not an uncommon thing to do in the MLB, and the Blue Jays are no exception. There is a slew of infielders who have been near the top of their organization in recent years who were signed by the Jays before they went to college.
Current Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette was signed out of Lakewood High School in St. Petersburg, FL, at the age of 18. After starting the 2017 season at single-A Lansing, he played just 40 games at then-High-A Dunedin to conclude his 19-year-old season. There, he hit .323 with an .843 OPS, earning him a spot in Double-A New Hampshire to start his 20-year-old season in 2018.
Addison Barger, Orelvis Martínez, and Jordan Groshans were all signed in 2018 at the ages of 18, 16, and 18, respectively. Leo Jiménez, who spent a good portion of last season with the major league club, was signed out of Panama in 2017 at age 16. The COVID-shortened season in 2020 impacted their minor league trajectories to an extent, but their respective stints at high-A are worth looking at.
Barger played 69 games in Vancouver in 2022 (his 22-year-old season), and after hitting .300 with a .924 OPS in those games, he earned a promotion to the Fisher Cats in the middle of the season. Martínez played just 27 games at high-A as a 19-year-old, but a .773 OPS with 9 homers and 19 RBIs in those games overshadowed a low .214 batting average, and he was in double-A to start his 20-year-old season.
Groshans excelled greatly at Lansing and skipped playing in Vancouver altogether. Jiménez played just 69 games with the Canadians when he was 21, but he had already spent several seasons between rookie ball and single-A before that point.
Taking a deep dive into other infield prospects’ journey at high-A isn’t meant to imply that every one of them should be the same. Every prospect’s path is different; it’s dependent on performance, playing time at various levels, and many other factors. Furthermore, we aren’t in the clubhouse day in and day out to see everything off the field.
However, the Blue Jays have followed a trend of infield prospects spending one season or less with their squad out west. If Nimmala can stay healthy and maintain the level of performance he’s currently exhibiting, it’s reasonable to think he can earn a promotion to New Hampshire towards the end of this season, or perhaps he starts next season there with a clean slate.
In an era where we’re seeing prospects be expedited through the minors (see Nick Kurtz of the Athletics or Cam Smith of the Astros), I don’t think we’ll be seeing the same thing with Nimmala. He features a very high ceiling, especially in the power department, an area he’s tapped into at just 6’1” and 170 pounds. Regarding Double-A, though, he’s on track to get there towards the end of this season or the beginning of next.