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Blue Jays: Seeing how Dylan Cease stacks up against Cam Schlittler for the AL Cy Young award
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Photo credit: © Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
Cynthia Ryley Delaney
Oct 31, 2026, 16:00 EDTUpdated: Oct 31, 2026, 10:10 EDT
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For the fifth time in seven seasons, the Toronto Blue Jays will have a finalist for the American League Cy Young award.
While not officially announced, Dylan Cease did more than enough to become a finalist for this season’s Cy Young award. He’ll join Hyun Jin Ryu (2020), Robbie Ray (2021), Alek Manoah (2022), and Kevin Gausman (2023) as finalists since the start of the 2020s.
Realistically, it’s a two horse race between Cease and New York Yankees’ ace Cam Schlittler, and calling it a two horse race is a little generous.
The question is, just how close was the race between the two American League East pitchers?

Schlittler’s 2026 season

Schlittler is the front runner to win the award, and for good reason. This past season, the 25-year-old finished with a 1.95 ERA and 2.56 FIP in 193.2 innings of work, with a 31.4 K% and 6.4 BB%.
No American League pitcher with 100 or more innings pitched finished with a better ERA than Schlittler, with Jacob Misiorowski being the only pitcher in Major League Baseball with a better ERA.
His FIP of 2.56 was tied for best among pitchers who finished their season in the American League. Only Misiorowski, Chirs Sale, and Tarik Skubal finished with a better FIP in all of Major League Baseball of pitchers with 100 or more innings pitched.
Where Schlittler excelled was efficiency while still maintaining a high strikeout rate. He was one of just eight starters with 100+ innings pitched and a K% above 30 percent. His 31.4 K% finished fourth in the big leagues, and third in the American League. 
Schlittler’s 6.4 BB% didn’t stand out all that much, barely ranking in the top 30 among pitchers with 100+ innings of work. But when paired with his strikeout rate of 31.4%, Schlittler’s K-BB% of 25 percent ranks fifth-best in MLB, second-best among American League pitchers.
But what about Cease?

Cease’s 2026 season

Schlittler is pretty much a lock to win his first Cy Young award, but Cease had a great season in his own right. Over 169 innings of work, Cease finished with a 2.40 ERA and 2.56 FIP, with a 34.9 K% and 11.4 BB%.
Cease’s ERA ranked third in Major League Baseball and second in the American League. Aside from Misiorowski and Schlittler, Sale was the only other pitcher with 100+ innings of work who finished with a better ERA than Cease.
In the next to impossible chance that Cease somehow does win the Cy Young, a big reason why would be his FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching. Basically, it measures what the pitchers can realistically control, strikeouts, walks/hit by pitches, and home runs. He matched Schlittler’s 2.56, tied for the best in the American League and tied for third in the big leagues.
The biggest reason why his FIP was so good was his strikeout rate. Only Misiorowski finished with a better K% than Cease’s 34.9 percent. Cease’s 239 strikeouts were tied with Schlittler, but Cease pitched one fewer game and nearly 25 fewer innings. Only Gavin Williams, another starter who’ll likely get votes, finished with more strikeouts among AL pitchers.
Cease had a better strikeout rate than Schlittler, but he walked far more batters. Among pitchers with 100 or more innings pitched, no pitcher had a higher BB% than Cease’s 11.4 walk rate. Cease’s struggles with command is a big reason why Schlittler finished with more innings per start than Cease.

So who wins?

Only one Blue Jay pitcher has won a Cy Young Award since 2005, Ray back in 2021. Cease will probably eventually win one, but it won’t be in 2026. Unfortunately, Schlittler was just the best pitcher in the American League this season, it wasn’t really up for debate after Cease’s final three starts.
Earned run average has been an important metric to determine a winner of the award since 2020. No American League pitcher in the past six seasons has finished with the lowest ERA among qualified pitchers and hasn’t won the award. The last time it happened was in 2019, when Justin Verlander won with a 2.58 ERA, slightly better than Gerrit Cole’s 2.50 ERA.
The last time a player won with a margin nearly as large as Schlittler’s 0.45 lead was back in 2014. Corey Kluber finished with a 2.44 ERA, far worse than Félix Hernández’ 2.14 ERA. It was a different game back then, as Kluber had an 18-9 ERA compared to Hernández’ 15-6 record. Kluber also had three complete games.
While Cease may only finish second, his performance in 2026 was a big reason why the Blue Jays were anywhere near a playoff spot in September. Hopefully, he’ll win the award sooner rather than later.
Cynthia Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, DFOEdmonton, and DFOCalgary. She can be followed on Twitter @CynthiaRDelaney.
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