ONE OF ONE. Tarik Skubal is your BACK-TO-BACK American League Cy Young Award Winner‼️
Blue Jays free agent target: Tarik Skubal
Photo credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Oct 24, 2026, 07:00 EDTUpdated: Oct 24, 2026, 02:46 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays have plenty of work to do this offseason following a disappointing 2026 campaign, but few additions could change their outlook for 2027 quite like Tarik Skubal.
The two-time American League Cy Young Award winner is expected to command one of the largest contracts ever given to a starting pitcher, with a potential $400-million deal or even a $500-million commitment on the table. For Toronto, pursuing that kind of investment would be a gamble, but one worth exploring as the club looks to return to contention.
Skubal, who is expected to enter free agency this winter, was traded from the Detroit Tigers to the Los Angeles Dodgers in August, with Los Angeles hoping the ace could help deliver a third consecutive World Series championship. That pursuit ended with a loss to the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Championship Series, leaving Skubal as undoubtedly the biggest prize of this coming offseason.
Although Toronto finished 79-83 and fifth in the American League East in 2026, its recent history suggests the front office will not shy away from pursuing elite talent, even at the risk of stockpiling one side of the roster. Toronto appears more concerned with how much a player can move the needle than with whether an addition creates a surplus elsewhere.
For example, last offseason, the front office spent a total of $259 million on starting pitching between Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce, Max Scherzer, and Shane Bieber. Once Spring Training rolled around, Toronto had more capable starters than rotation spots, with nine pitchers who could not be optioned to the minors.
Skubal is the kind of player who could help Toronto turn its disappointing season into a distant memory.
Skubal’s reputation precedes him, and the 29-year-old ace needs almost no introduction. He captured the American League pitching Triple Crown in 2024, finishing with 18 wins, a 2.39 ERA, and 228 strikeouts over 192 innings. He followed that performance with a 2.21 ERA and 241 strikeouts across 195 1/3 innings in 2025, earning his second consecutive Cy Young Award and becoming the 12th pitcher in major league history to accomplish the feat.
His 2026 campaign, in contrast to the previous two seasons, was interrupted by an elbow procedure to remove loose bodies, costing him a significant portion of the season. Nevertheless, Skubal returned to record a 2.72 ERA, 186 strikeouts and a 0.96 WHIP over 158 2/3 innings between Detroit and Los Angeles. His ability to maintain that level of production following the procedure should be encouraging to potential suitors, although his medical history will be an important consideration in any long-term contract.
Skubal’s value goes beyond his impressive ERA and strikeout totals. Since increasing his changeup usage in 2022, the results have been breathtaking. In 2026, hitters recorded just a .192 batting average against the changeup, which generated a 46.9 per cent whiff rate. His secondary pitches also hold up exceptionally well, but the changeup is his bread and butter.
Tarik Skubal, 96mph Fastball and 89mph Changeup, Overlay.
His repertoire helped him generate a 32.9 per cent strikeout rate, placing him in the 96th percentile. Combined with the swing-and-miss ability of Cease, a healthy Trey Yesavage, Skubal could help form a postseason rotation capable of taking on any lineup in baseball.
Skubal’s postseason track record is yet another reason he could be the biggest needle-mover on the market this winter. Across eight career playoff appearances, he has recorded a 2.13 ERA and 70 strikeouts over 50 2/3 innings. His 2025 post-season with Detroit was particularly impressive, as he posted a 1.74 ERA and struck out 36 batters in 20 2/3 innings. With the Dodgers in 2026, he added 14 strikeouts and a 2.45 ERA across two starts.
The financial commitment remains the biggest obstacle to a potential deal. Skubal’s representation could push for a contract approaching $500 million, but that figure should be viewed as an upper-end possibility rather than the expected outcome. A survey of 27 industry contract projections compiled by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel produced an average forecast of eight years and $355 million, with several estimates reaching $400 million and a handful climbing to $500 million.
Toronto would still need to weigh the risks of committing that much money to a pitcher with recent elbow surgery. A long-term contract of this magnitude could limit the Blue Jays’ ability to address other roster weaknesses, particularly if injuries or declining performance emerge later in the deal. However, few available players offer Skubal’s combination of age, dominance and postseason experience.
Toronto has never been afraid to explore the market for baseball’s biggest stars, even when the odds of landing them appear slim. Signing Skubal remains unlikely given the expected price and competition from other big-market clubs, including the Dodgers and the New York Mets. Still, the Blue Jays should not be ruled out of the conversation, and why would they be? Toronto is among baseball’s top three spenders, has significant money coming off the books and boasts a front office that consistently pursues the biggest names available.
After a season that fell well short of expectations, Toronto needs a needle-mover. Skubal would give the club a significant boost, raise its postseason ceiling and help restore its status as an American League contender heading into 2027. A $500-million contract may be difficult to justify, but a serious pursuit of a pitcher who could transform the rotation should be well within the realm of possibility for Toronto’s off-season plans.
PRESENTED BY THE PERFECT 9 COLLECTION
Some baseball traditions never get old. The Perfect 9 Collection is our newest limited-edition collaboration with Blue Jays Today, inspired by the viral 9/9/9 challenge that has become a staple of baseball culture. Whether you’re taking on the challenge or just enjoying a day at the ballpark, this collection celebrates the moments that make baseball unforgettable. Featuring premium Levelwear apparel with elevated fabrics and modern fits, it’s designed for fans who live and breathe the game—on game day and beyond. Limited edition. Premium quality. Built for baseball fans. Shop the Perfect 9 Collection while it lasts. Exclusively at nationgear.ca