As the Toronto Blue Jays wrap up a disappointing 2026 season, the focus has already shifted towards next year. While there are certain to be changes to the Blue Jays roster for 2027, many of the same faces will be returning next year. So what can be reasonably expected from the Blue Jays before seeing how the roster changes in the offseason?

To say the Blue Jays failed to meet expectations in 2026 would be a massive understatement. They were coming off a narrow World Series loss and a very productive offseason.

Preseason projections had them finishing somewhere between 86 and 90 wins, which would have easily earned them a spot in the postseason. Those same projections had the Tampa Bay Rays finishing last in the AL East, so clearly they were not accurate. Still, it’s safe to say almost everyone expected better from the Blue Jays.

One of the biggest reasons for the Blue Jays’ struggles in 2026 was the number of injuries, particularly to the starting rotation. If the Blue Jays can have more sustained periods with a full five-man rotation in 2027, that already puts them in a better spot, even if they don’t pick up another arm during the offseason.

Cody Ponce will likely return to the Blue Jays rotation in 2027 following his ACL sprain. The loss of Ponce was one of the biggest hits to the Blue Jays in 2026. The Blue Jays struggled to fill his spot in the rotation throughout the season. Furthermore, his injury occurred in the third inning of the Blue Jays’ first loss of the season. After the high of their season-opening sweep of the Athletics, Ponce’s injury was the first sign of the uphill battle that 2026 became.

With Ponce returning, the Blue Jays have the makings of a strong starting rotation that also includes Dylan Cease, José Soriano, and Trey Yesavage. As for the fifth spot, the Blue Jays have several options within the organization. José Berríos and Bowden Francis could both return after missing the entirety of 2026 due to injury.

Spencer Arrighetti struggled after he was traded to the Blue Jays, posting a 6.35 ERA in seven appearances. However, he has shown glimpses of being an effective starter, such as when he was named the AL Pitcher of the Month for May when he was with the Houston Astros.

2026 showed that there’s no such thing as too much starting pitching, so the Blue Jays should still keep an eye on the market during the offseason. However, they already have a lot of strong pieces. Even without any additions, the Blue Jays should have a strong rotation in 2027. The bigger question is whether they can stay healthy for an extended period.

The other major hit to the Blue Jays in 2026 was that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had the worst season of his career. He posted career-lows in several offensive categories. Most notably, he hit nine home runs, only one of which was at Rogers Centre, tying his career low from 2020, a 60-game season shortened by COVID-19.

A significant factor in how competitive the Blue Jays can be in 2027 hinges on whether Guerrero’s form was a blip or the new normal. He’s the team’s leader, so if he comes back strong, so will the Blue Jays. Even an average season from Guerrero in 2027 would put the Blue Jays in a much better position.

Guerrero did experience more health problems in 2026 than in previous seasons. He had the first IL stint of his career following a concussion, but he also missed several games due to back tightness. Between the World Series and the World Baseball Classic, he also had the shortest offseason of his career. With the Blue Jays missing the playoffs, Guerrero has plenty of time to heal and figure things out before 2027.

Guerrero bore the brunt of the blame for the Blue Jays’ poor offence, but there were other factors at play. Alejandro Kirk had a fantastic second half of the season, but he missed two months with a thumb injury, and it took him time to find his form once he returned. Addison Barger was one of the breakout stars of the Blue Jays in 2025, but only played nine games in 2026 due to various injuries.

One of the biggest problems for the Blue Jays in 2026 was their lack of power. They finished the season with the fewest home runs in MLB (152). They weren’t overly reliant on the home run in 2025, but they were at least average, finishing with the 13th most in MLB (191). One of the biggest needs for the Blue Jays in the offseason will be a power bat.

Eight players finished with 10 or more home runs in 2025, compared to four in 2026. Of those eight, Barger missed almost all of 2026 with injury; Daulton Varsho was traded to the Astros at the deadline; Bo Bichette signed with the New York Mets in free agency; Kirk played half as many games in 2026 as in 2025, and Davis Schneider spent more time in Triple-A than with the Blue Jays. The remaining three players, Guerrero, George Springer, and Nathan Lukes, did not match their production from 2025, though Lukes only had two fewer home runs (12 vs. 10).

The Blue Jays lineup will already look different next season, with Springer likely having played his final game as a Blue Jay. While Springer couldn’t match his production from 2025, he was still one of the more productive bats for the Blue Jays in 2026. He was second in home runs (15) and fourth in RBIs (54), hits (114), and wRC+ (105).

One of the bigger issues with Springer in 2026 was that he was essentially a full-time designated hitter. He only played 16 innings in the field in 2026 compared to 436.2 in 2025. This gave the Blue Jays very minimal flexibility with the DH spot throughout the season. While Springer is a big loss for the Blue Jays, they will have a lot more options for lineup construction next season.

Losing Springer is another hit to the Blue Jays’ power, though they will have Barger back for 2027. Anthony Santander could also return for 2027, though there are a lot of questions about his form. He missed the entire 2026 season and only played 54 games in 2025, during which he posted a .175/.271/.294 slash line with six home runs. The power potential is there, but it hasn’t been seen since 2024, when he hit 44 home runs with the Baltimore Orioles.

One of the few high points for the Blue Jays in 2026 was the bullpen. The injuries to the starting rotation put extra pressure on the bullpen to carry the load. Blue Jays relievers pitched the third-most innings in MLB (686.2) but posted the seventh-lowest ERA. Louis Varland cemented himself as one of the best closers in MLB, while Tyler Rogers was one of the most dependable arms for the Blue Jays in his first season with the team. With Varland and Rogers, along with Braydon Fisher, Mason Fluharty, and Spencer Miles, the Blue Jays bullpen is in a great spot heading into 2027.

Despite a disappointing 2026 campaign, the Blue Jays have a lot of potential. With an average season from Guerrero and a little more injury luck, 2026 could have looked a lot different. As for 2027, the Blue Jays have a lot of strong pieces returning to the team next year, but they will need a productive offseason if they want to compete next year. They can’t stand still during the offseason, but they are building from a strong foundation.