Opening day is fast approaching for the Toronto Blue Jays. After an incredible 2025 season in which the Blue Jays just barely missed out on winning the franchise’s first World Series since 1993, the expectations are high for 2026. While much of the Blue Jays roster is the same, they did lose some key players from last year’s run, most notably infielder Bo Bichette and pitcher Chris Bassitt.

However, the Blue Jays still had a productive offseason, adding starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce, reliever Tyler Rogers, infielder Kazuma Okamoto, and outfielder Jesus Sanchez. The Blue Jays also brought back pitcher Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer. But while the Blue Jays were making moves, so too were their rivals in the always competitive AL East. So what do the projections say about how the Blue Jays stack up against their division rivals?

Unsurprisingly, Fangraphs projected standings predict a tight race between the five teams in the AL East. The Yankees have the highest projected record of 87-75, one game ahead of the Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox, who are both projected to finish the season with an 86-76 record. The Baltimore Orioles are projected to finish fourth with an 84-78 record, while the Tampa Bay Rays are projected to finish fifth with an 81-81 record. Based on projections for all American League teams, the Blue Jays would advance to the Wild Card round as the fifth seed and face the Red Sox.

Fangraphs projects the Blue Jays losing eight more games this year compared to 2025. While they would make the postseason, they’d have a much more difficult road back to the World Series, having to go through the Wild Card round.  The AL East is expected to be the toughest American League division. Based on the projected standings, all three Wild Card spots would go to teams in the AL East. This isn’t new; the AL East has always been a particularly competitive division, but it could cause the Blue Jays some trouble as they try to make it back to the World Series.

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA standings are slightly more optimistic about the Blue Jays’ chances in 2026. They projected the Blue Jays to defend their AL East title with 89.4 wins, just ahead of the Yankees (88.9), and more comfortably ahead of the Orioles (83), the Red Sox (82.2), and the Rays (81.6). In both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus’ projections, the AL East is the most competitive division, though the Seattle Mariners are the projected favourites in the American League.

While both sites project the Blue Jays to regress a little bit from their 94-68 record from 2025, Toronto is still expected to be one of the top teams in the American League. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, several of the other teams projected to contend in the American League are also in the AL East.

The Baltimore Orioles are coming off a disappointing 2025 in which they finished last in the AL East with a 75-87 record. Injury woes and a lack of depth in their starting pitching caused the Orioles to drop from a Wild Card team in 2024 to a losing record in 2025. However, they’ve made changes during the offseason that could bring them back into the battle for the top spot in the AL East. The Orioles signed first baseman Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million contract. The five-time All-Star and 2025 Silver Slugger adds extra power to an already deep lineup. The Orioles also traded for starting pitcher Shane Baz. The Orioles’ offseason moves could bring them back into contention in the AL East, making the Blue Jays’ quest to defend their division crown even more difficult.

Last season, the Yankees were the Blue Jays’ fiercest competition in the AL East. The teams finished with identical records during the regular season, but the Blue Jays won the division by winning the tiebreaker, having beaten the Yankees during their season series. The Blue Jays then comfortably beat the Yankees in four games in the ALDS.

The Yankees didn’t make many moves during the regular season, though they did bring back outfielder Cody Bellinger. The biggest difference for the Yankees heading into this season is that Gerrit Cole is expected to return to the starting rotation. Cole missed 2025 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He is expected to return to the Majors in May, though he did make an appearance in spring training. While the Yankees will be without Cole for at least the first month of the regular season, getting him back will be a massive boost to New York’s starting rotation.

On top of the increased competition from their division rivals, the Blue Jays are already dealing with injury setbacks, particularly among their starting rotation. Bieber will have a late start to the season due to forearm fatigue. Jose Berrios is working through a stress fracture in his right elbow. Just this week, the Blue Jays announced that Trey Yesavage would start the season on the IL while recovering from a shoulder impingement. The Blue Jays did have an overabundance of starting pitchers, so they have options in the meantime. Eric Lauer came into Spring Training with his eyes on a rotation spot. With all the injuries, he’ll likely get his chance. While it’s not ideal for the Blue Jays, Lauer played a big role in the Blue Jays’ 2025 success, both as a starter and coming out of the bullpen.

Another big question for the Blue Jays heading into the season is whether some of last year’s breakout stars will regress. 36-year-old George Springer is coming off one of the best seasons of his career. Another season like that from him could be a big ask. Ernie Clement is also coming off a breakout season. He’s always been a great fielder, but he was also one of the biggest offensive contributors to the Blue Jays’ playoff run, setting a record for the most hits in a single postseason (30). Other players such as Myles Straw, Tyler Heineman, Nathan Lukes, and Davis Schneider were also major contributors to the Blue Jays’ success. Whether they can replicate their 2025 form will be key to the Blue Jays defending their AL East title.

After coming so close to winning the World Series, the Blue Jays will be hungry to get revenge in 2026. While the projections give them a good chance of making it back to the postseason, they are in for a tough fight against their division rivals.

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