It’s getting late to say it’s early for the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays are 16-21 after getting swept by the Tampa Bay Rays, which is only one game worse than their record through 37 games in 2025. The difference, however, is that the Blue Jays were four games back of the New York Yankees for first in the AL East. The Yankees have had a much stronger start to 2026 and sit 9.5 games ahead of the Blue Jays in the division standings with a 25-11 record.

Blue Jays fans will remember how important the season series against division rivals can be. After finishing 2025 with the same record, the Blue Jays took first place in the AL East over the Yankees because they had won the season series.

The Blue Jays couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start against the Rays. Not only did they get swept, but they also only managed four runs throughout the series. They led most of the way on Tuesday, but blew it in the eighth inning.

If there’s any positive to take from this series, the Blue Jays also got swept by the Rays in 2025. In fact, the Rays were the only AL East team against which the Blue Jays had a losing record in 2025. Toronto finished with a 6-7 record against Tampa Bay.

The Blue Jays will have to face the Rays again following a series with the Los Angeles Angels. Luckily for the Blue Jays, their next series against the Rays will be at the Rogers Centre, rather than Tropicana Field, where the Blue Jays have a 29-52 record since 2016.

The other good news for the Blue Jays is that reinforcements are coming in time for the Rays’ arrival in Toronto on Monday. Addison Barger is to be activated for the Blue Jays’ series against the Angels later today. Barger had been struggling before his stint on the IL, though he’s had two home runs in his rehab assignments with the Dunedin Blue Jays. If he can regain his 2025 form, he’ll add some much-needed power to the Blue Jays lineup.

The Boston Red Sox are the only other AL East team the Blue Jays have faced this season. They dropped the first game of the series 5-0, but looked much stronger in the next two, winning 3-0 and 8-1. As of now, the Red Sox have a similar record to the Blue Jays, with Boston having one more loss on their record.

The Blue Jays have a four-game series against the Yankees later in May. Last year, the Blue Jays’ sweep of the Yankees in a four-game series was likely the most important moment in the regular season. It not only gave Toronto the lead in the AL East, which they held onto for the rest of the season, but it also gave the Blue Jays the tiebreaker against the Yankees.

In 2026, a good showing against the Yankees could be even more important with New York’s current advantage over the Blue Jays in the standings. The Blue Jays will need all the help they can get if they want any chance of catching the Yankees in the division standings. It’s not enough to win; the Yankees need to start losing.

While it’s probably too early to write off winning the division in early May, 9.5 games back is a large hill to climb. Granted, the Blue Jays trailed the Yankees by as much as eight games at the end of May in 2025.

Before the Blue Jays can focus on trying to catch the Yankees, they first need to get to a .500 winning percentage. They got within one win of .500 after back-to-back wins against the Minnesota Twins. However, since then, they dug themselves back into a hole and now find themselves five games under .500.

The Blue Jays sit half a game back of the Baltimore Orioles for fourth in the AL East. The Orioles will be the final division rival the Blue Jays have to face, with their series scheduled for the final weekend in May. While the Orioles still find themselves four games under .500, they are having a much stronger season so far compared to 2025. At this time last year, the Orioles were 10 games under .500.

If there’s any solace for Blue Jays fans to take from the team’s early-season form, it’s that Toronto was in a similar position at this time last season. The Blue Jays had a record under .500 as late as May 28, 2025. While the low point for the Blue Jays in 2025 was four games under .500, they didn’t really hit their stride until June.

On top of that, the Blue Jays are putting up similar, or even better, numbers than they were at this stage of 2025. The team has scored more runs in 2026 than at this time in 2025 (147 vs. 135). They also have more RBIs (142 in 2026 vs. 129 in 2025), more home runs (34 in 2026 vs. 26 in 2025), fewer strikeouts (249 in 2026 vs. 274 in 2025), and a very similar team batting average (.249 in 2026 vs. .245 in 2025).

From a pitching perspective, the Blue Jays have given up two fewer runs than they had by this time last year (169 vs. 171) and have a slightly better team ERA (4.23 vs. 4.38). The defence, however, has been more sloppy. By this time last year, the Blue Jays had given up 10 unearned runs, versus 16 in 2026.

Of course, the only number that truly matters is the number of wins. However, looking at the numbers and considering that the Blue Jays are starting to get some of their injured players back, it might still be too early to hit the panic button.

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