How the Blue Jays clawed their way back into the American League’s wild card race

Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
By Kylie Tait
Aug 18, 2026, 09:30 EDTUpdated: Aug 17, 2026, 16:54 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays are back in the hunt for a playoff spot.
It wasn’t long ago that a wild card spot seemed like a pipe dream for the Blue Jays. On July 24, they were 10 games under .500 and 6.5 games back of the final American League wild-card berth.
They were 2-6 coming out of the All-Star break and had the worst offence in MLB. In the first week after the break, the Blue Jays had the worst batting average (.200) and OBP (.260), and the second-worst slugging percentage (.290).
Fast-forward three weeks: the Blue Jays are one game back of the final wild card spot with a 61-65 record. They’ve technically won six series in a row (ignoring a makeup game against the Chicago Cubs), five of which were against teams with winning records.
There isn’t one single reason for the Blue Jays’ turnaround over the last three weeks. They’ve been playing better in every area.
The offence has improved from being the worst in MLB to being average. Their team slash line has improved from .200/.260/.290 in the first week after the All-Star break to .251/.313/.362, which ranks 12th in MLB.
Their strikeout rate has remained steady at 19.5 per cent, however, their walk rate increased from 6.5 per cent in the first week after the All-Star break to 7.6 per cent over the following three weeks.
Even despite their improved offence, the Blue Jays are still lacking in home runs. They are 29th in home runs since July 24, with 14. However, they are fifth in hits and have the sixth-highest BABIP. They are still lacking in power but have been finding ways to get the job done at the plate.
The pitching has also improved over the last three weeks. In the first week after the All-Star break, the Blue Jays had the seventh-worst ERA in MLB (4.82). In the three weeks since, they’ve had the third-best ERA at 3.09. The starting rotation has improved dramatically, from 5.02 coming out of the All-Star break to 2.75 since July 24.
The bullpen’s ERA has also improved from 4.59 in the first week after the All-Star break to 3.50 since July 24.
The Blue Jays have also been playing better defence. They’ve ranked highly in Fielding Run Value (FRV) all season, though that’s mostly due to Alejandro Kirk and Brandon Valenzuela. The Blue Jays’ catchers not only lead the league in FRV (25); they have more than double the New York Yankees, who are second (11).
However, the rest of the Blue Jays’ defence was not as strong. On July 24, the Blue Jays were 15th in infield FRV (2) and 16th in the outfield (-4). They have improved to 10th in infield FRV (8) and 12th in the outfield (1). While the change is not dramatic, it is a step in the right direction for a team that has struggled more defensively in 2026 than expected.
The secret behind the Blue Jays’ recent turnaround is that they’ve been doing any one thing better than any other team, but that they’re doing everything a little better than they were previously.
This has meant that most of their games have been very close. Five of their last 11 have gone to extra innings. But the Blue Jays are finding ways to do enough in most games to get wins and work their way back into the playoff picture.
The Blue Jays have also gotten help from some new faces in the clubhouse. Brett Bateman was one of two prospects the Blue Jays got in exchange for Kevin Gausman from the Cubs at the trade deadline. He had spent the season in Triple-A before the Blue Jays called him up ahead of their series against the Philadelphia Phillies.
In his first nine games at the MLB level, he’s had hits in all but two of them, including four multi-hit games. That’s especially impressive, given that he has had to go up against pitchers like Zack Wheeler, Sonny Gray, Gerrit Cole, and Cam Schlittler. The Blue Jays have shown confidence in him, putting him at the top of the lineup in each game except his debut.
Bateman has also looked good in centre field for the Blue Jays, which is especially important after they traded Daulton Varsho to the Houston Astros. It’s very early in his MLB career, but Bateman is already making a difference for the Blue Jays, and it couldn’t come at a better time in the season.
José Soriano has also impressed since he was acquired by the Blue Jays in a trade with the Los Angeles Angels. He has made two starts with the team, giving up one earned run in each of them.
It is not just new players who have helped the Blue Jays mount a comeback; they have also been getting production from the guys who were already on the team. Since the All-Star break, Kirk has been slashing .351/.432/.486 with three home runs and 13 RBIs.
It is not surprising that Kirk’s form has improved the further removed he is from his thumb injury, but it’s a welcome sight to see him look more like himself. He was one of the biggest reasons for the Blue Jays’ success in 2025, so it’s no surprise as he plays better, so does the rest of the team.
The Blue Jays have two difficult series coming up against the Tampa Bay Rays and the Yankees. They have struggled a lot against the AL-leading Rays, dropping eight of their 10 games against them in 2026. They have performed much better against the Yankees, with the season series split at five apiece so far.
After those two series, the Blue Jays’ schedule opens up a lot for the rest of the season. After the Yankees, none of the Blue Jays’ remaining series are against teams over .500 (at least as of now). That could give the Blue Jays a big opportunity if they continue playing the way they have been, especially since they’ve looked competitive against some very good teams recently.
What could help or hurt the Blue Jays is that a lot of those series are also against teams they are competing against in the wild card race. That makes every win more valuable, but every loss more costly.
Three weeks ago, it seemed the Blue Jays’ playoff hopes were dead for 2026. They’ve found a way back into the race, but they’ll need to keep it going to find their way back to October.
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