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Blue Jays – To Sign or Not to Sign: Teoscar Hernández vs. Anthony Santander
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Photo credit: © Denis Poroy - USA Today
Veronica Chung
Dec 15, 2024, 09:12 EST
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The Toronto Blue Jays are far from being done with offseason transactions. Many signs point to the Blue Jays making at least a couple more moves to complement their roster before Spring Training rolls around. One of the moves the Blue Jays have to make is bringing more power to the lineup. This time, that power source will most likely come from signing one of the remaining free-agent outfielders. So far, Toronto has explored potentially signing Teoscar Hernández and Anthony Santander to bring the thump back to its offence. 
While Hernández and Santander offer similar relief for the Blue Jays, they are two very different players at the core. Below are comparisons of what these two players can offer and who the Jays should consider signing this winter.
Teoscar Hernández’s profile
Hernández has always been a high-risk-high-reward player throughout his career. His main strength has been the power he brings but the trade-off is his higher strikeout rate, which isn’t abnormal for a power-type profile, but he stands near the top of the list year after year. Through nine seasons, the Dominican product has produced a .263/.320/.488 slash line and recorded 928 hits, 192 home runs and 572 RBIs. Hernández has always had power, collecting 25 to 32 single-season home runs from 2021 through 2024, and earned three Silver Slugger awards throughout his career. Despite some ups and downs, especially during his time with Seattle where he struggled with the batter’s eye, his raw power has been mostly consistent as the outfielder recorded an average of .318 OBP, .499 SLG and .239 ISO. His BABIP also has been excellent, averaging .326 across nine seasons. 
He became a full-time player for the Jays in 2018 but didn’t really hit his stride until the 2020 campaign, where he amassed a 146 OPS+ during the condensed season. In 2021, he earned his first All-Star appearance and slashed .296/.346/.524 and set himself apart as a go-to power bat. Even during his down year in Seattle, he still managed a 108 OPS+ – so still above average – while collecting 26 home runs.
As previously mentioned, Hernández’s Achilles heel comes from his unusually high strikeout rate. Collectively, his average strikeout rate has clocked in at 29.6%, which is well above the MLB average (22.4%). Last year, Hernández ranked in the tenth percentile for K% (28.8) and also had a 34% whiff rate, setting him up in the seventh percentile. The Dominican outfielder takes his walks now and then, but he sits just under that MLB average as well at 7.2% and 8.4% respectively. He did post an 8.1% mark last year (52nd percentile), which falls only behind the 9.7% he amassed in 2019 with the Jays (when he became a full-time player).
Lastly, Hernández’s defence has always been a weak point and last year, he recorded a -8 DRS in left field through 871 2/3 innings while amassing a -9 outs above average (Second percentile). He had more success in right field (+5 DRS) but throughout his career, he sports negative DRS numbers across all outfield positions and is considered a below-average fielder. 
That said, Hernández has reformed himself with the Los Angeles Dodgers this past season as he hit a career-high 33 home runs and mashed against left-handed pitching with a .290 average and a .931 OPS. He bet on himself to find his bat again, producing a +25 batting run value and barreling the ball at a high rate, finishing in the 94th percentile. He also won the Home Run Derby and collected his second All-Star nomination to go along with a World Series ring. 
By and large, Hernández has an immense upside as an offensive-first player but teams will need to keep his high strikeout rate and weak defence in mind when they consider signing him to a multi-year deal. The bat will be the main reason he signs with any club. 
Anthony Santander’s profile
Similar to Hernández, the switch-hitting Santander has been a relatively productive player when it comes to his offence production.
Throughout eight seasons with the Baltimore Orioles, the Venezuelan outfielder has produced a .246/.307/.469 slash line with 695 hits, 155 home runs and 435 RBIs with a 114 OPS+. When healthy, he can mash over 25 home runs a season and even during the condensed COVID campaign, he still put 11 homers on the board.
His 44 home runs this past season were a single-season record for the former Orioles and helped him capture the Silver Slugger Award. He did see a bit of a decline in terms of his batting average but he continued to showcase his raw power, producing a high ISO (.271) and slugging (.506), highlighting what he can do in the batter’s box. As a switch hitter, he produced more home runs from the right side versus the left side (32 vs. 12) but the average home run rate when compared to the at-bat mark hovered around the same area – 7.35% and 6.66% respectively. He also landed in the same area in terms of average and OBP but saw a bit more differential with the SLG from the right side versus the left. 
Platoon Splits
SplitGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSBAbip
vs RHP
149
485
435
68
104
19
2
32
77
42
86
.239
.309
.513
.822
.224
vs LHP
84
180
160
23
36
6
0
12
25
16
43
.225
.306
.488
.793
.226
Santander also didn’t strike out much last year when you think of a power-type hitter (19.4%) and for his career, he ranks a bit below the MLB average strikeout rate with an average of 20.7% rate. Defensively, Santander has spent most of his career in right field and owns a 9 DRS in the position. However, he did take a step back last year to the tune of a -7 mark with a -2 OAA, which could be a sign of things to come for Santander moving forward. Baseball Savant has been a bit more bullish on his fielding compared to his DRS numbers (negative OAA since 2021) but again, the bat is calling card for this slugger.
Santander also doesn’t walk much like Hernández with a 7.3% walk rate in eight seasons. His 79th percentile batting run value (+15) does prove that he is a player who can provide value to any lineup that he joins and currently, he is one of the top free-agent outfielders left on the market.
The 30-year-old outfielder’s value as a switch hitter is valuable to many teams as they seek flexibility and adaptability in their lineups.
Who should the Blue Jays sign?
The answer here is it depends on what the Blue Jays front office values more. If the front office values someone with a previous clubhouse relationship and batting against left-handed pitching, they will inevitably lean more toward a potential reunion with Hernández. The 32-year-old also offers more consistent offence at least on paper despite his perilously high strikeout rate. 
If the organization is purely going on stats alone, then Hernández would get the nod. He does have over 200 more games under his belt (a full season and a bit if you will) so the totals will be higher but slash line wise, his values stack up higher than Santander across the board. Where Santander gets the win is the strikeout rates, which he holds quite a wide margin over Hernández.
Anthony Santander vs. Teoscar Hernández: Totals Table
PlayerAgeFromToGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSOPS+
Hernández
23-31
2016
2024
965
3861
3534
506
928
193
14
192
572
278
1142
.263
.320
.488
.808
121
Santander
22-29
2017
2024
746
3115
2830
383
695
155
6
155
435
226
644
.246
.307
.469
.776
114
The most likely answer is that Toronto will pursue both Santander and Hernández until the last minute, as the former Blue Jay is still in talks to try and return to the Dodgers while Santander is getting attention across the AL East. It will likely come down to the amount of years each team is willing to dish out but overall, both players have their pros and cons. 
Hernández may be the better fit because of the familiarity with Toronto but Santander’s power surge from last year is tough to sleep on, especially if he continues to mash 40+ home runs in a familiar setting within the AL East. 

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