The Blue Jays have plenty of high-variance players for 2025. Will George Springer bounce back? Does Max Scherzer have one more in him? Will Anthony Santander repeat his 2024?

But, no player enters 2025 with a bigger question mark than Bo Bichette. After a short career of being one of baseball’s best contact bats, a regular All-Star level contributor, and a franchise cornerstone, the young shortstop flopped in a big way for the Blue Jays last year.

Projection systems give us some insight into what to expect from Bichette this year and how essential he will be to Toronto’s 2025 success:

After breaking into MLB in 2019 and playing just 29 games in a shortened 2020, Bichette was one of baseball’s most consistent players from 2021 to 2023. He essentially hit .300 and averaged 4.5 WAR across those three years, putting him near the top tier of MLB shortstops.

In the first half of 2024, Bichette struggled mightily. He hit just .201 with a .481 OPS and the defense wasn’t great. Early struggles weren’t entirely new for Bichette, who has a career OPS over .100 points worse in first halves.

But, injuries robbed him of the chance for his patented second-half rebound. Toronto’s shortstop played just two games after the 2024 All-Star break, missing eight weeks with a calf injury and then immediately ending his season with a broken finger, upon return. The resulting season was his worst ever:

Projection systems expect a big bounce-back from the 26-year-old. None of FanGraphs’ three top projection models have Bichette getting back to his 2021-2023 form, but all have him hovering in the mid-threes WAR with 15+ homers and a solid batting average:

All the 2025 Bichette projections are a massive step up from his lowly ’24. But it sure feels like a 3.5 WAR season from the young shortstop would be a disappointment.

As of early February, the Blue Jays project to be an 82-80 team per FanGraphs — the 15^th of 30 rosters, decidedly mediocre. They need more to be a true playoff team. Maybe that comes with a Springer bounce-back, maybe it comes with a wild Scherzer season. But I’d argue Bichette is Toronto’s best bet at those 2-3 extra wins they’ll need to be in serious contention.

Luckily for Toronto, I’d bet on Bichette in 2025. The current projections aren’t able to take into account why the Blue Jays’ shortstop was so dreadful last year. Not only did he miss half the season, but he was one of the worst hitters in baseball when he was on the field. Maybe Bichette took a massive step back at the plate last year, but it was pretty clear the calf injury that ultimately held him out for the middle third of the season was hampering him long before he went on the IL.

With Bichette coming into the season healthy, it’s fair for the Blue Jays to bank on him outperforming his 2025 projections and looking a lot like the consistent star he was from 2021 to 2023. He’s also one of the most singularly motivated athletes I’ve covered in this iteration of Blue Jays baseball — a baseball-focused stoic — and that’s the exact type of player who should thrive in his final season before baseball free agency.

Projections expect Bichette to bounce back in 2024, but they’re underestimating just how much.