There have been few constants in the Blue Jays’ lineup lately, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitting third is one of them.

In six MLB seasons, Guerrero Jr. has spent over 60% of his plate appearances batting third — 77% in 2024. If manager John Schneider’s nightmares are any indication, though, a shakeup could be coming.

“I don’t sleep well when a game ends with Vladdy on deck hitting three instead of two,” John Schneider said on the Blair and Barker Show.

It may seem like a meaningless shuffle between two premium batting order slots, but it’s the kind of choice managers are paid big bucks for and baseball nerds really (REALLY) care about. So, where should Vlad actually hit this year?

For decades, baseball agreed that the best hitter should bat third or fourth in the lineup. Even as recently as the late 2010s, superstars like Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera logged all their at-bats in the heart of the order. As with every other aspect of the sport, though, analytics brings change.

There are many ways statistics point to the No. 2 spot for your best hitter, but the two most important factors are added plate appearances and run-scoring opportunities. The second spot in the order, throughout a season, gets about 15 to 20 more plate appearances per season compared to the No. 3 hole. The second spot in the lineup also has a higher production opportunity, expecting to produce 1.5 more runs + RBI over the course of a season, according to a 2017 FanGraphs analysis.

All together, there’s a reason sluggers like Juan Soto, Ketel Marte, Bobby Witt Jr., and Fernando Tatis Jr. spent the vast majority of their 2024 seasons hitting second. If you go by the general data, alone, Vlad should join them.

Here’s where Schneider’s decision gets tougher.

For basically his entire MLB career, Guerrero has hit third — because that’s where he wants to hit. It’s no secret Toronto’s best hitter prefers the three-hole. Every time Schneider’s moved him out of the slot, the manager has discussed having to “have a discussion” with Guerrero. The skipper also says he cares about his hitters being “happy” where they hit — likely why Vlad has stayed at No. 3.

This preference doesn’t just play out in chats and discourse, though. Guerrero is a career .298 hitter when batting third, with a .911 OPS. In the second spot, it’s a .263 average and .768 OPS. That’s the difference between the 2024 seasons of Christian Yelich and Eli White — a big gap. We’re also talking about a real sample size here, as Vlad has 2180 career plate appearances hitting third and 772 second.

The data may say Toronto’s best hitter should slot in second, but the preference of Guerrero Jr. (and the clear impact that mentality has on his production) matters more than league-wide trends. No lineup maximization trumps a .143 difference in OPS. It may result in a few sleepless nights for Schneider, but keeping Vlad third is better for the Blue Jays.