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Blue Jays: Why Addison Barger is poised for a bigger breakout season in 2026
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Photo credit: © John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
Damon
By Damon
Jan 5, 2026, 08:00 ESTUpdated: Jan 5, 2026, 07:51 EST
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When we think about baseball players, we like to label them. Are they a 5-tool guy? Are they a platoon player? Are they a situational lefty out of the bullpen? There are endless fancy baseball superlatives you can come up with to characterize them.
One of the more popular ones tends to be the floor vs ceiling debate. We can debate the merits of which type of player you prefer, but the reality is you need a good mix of both to create a dynamic ballclub. When it comes to Blue Jays third baseman/corner outfielder Addison Barger, without a doubt, he lands in the low-floor/high-ceiling bucket of ballplayer.
Known for his high-end exit velocities, incredible bat speed, and a bazooka for an arm, Barger is one of the most electrifying players anytime he steps between the lines. In his first full season in the show, Barger slashed .243/.301/.454 (.756 OPS) along with 21 homers, 74 RBI, and a 107 wRC+.
At first glance, it was a good if not spectacular year for Barger. However, when you dig in a little deeper on the left-handed slugger, there are a lot of green flags in the profile, along with some red, that paint the picture of a potential star.

The Good

It was a tale of two halves for Barger in 2025. It wasn’t until early May that he started getting consistent at-bats day in and day out, and between then and the trade deadline on July 31st, Barger was a borderline elite bat. He produced a 133 wRC+ across 296 plate appearances during that time frame while producing pristine batted ball and quality of contact data. Barger ran a 56.9% hard-hit rate during this stretch, along with a 93.5 MPH average EV/108.3 90th/116.5 Max, and a Z-Contact% of 86.6%, all elite clips.
When you factor all of this in context with the fact that Barger also produces 93rd percentile bat speed and 63rd percentile Sweet-Spot rate (meaning he hits the ball at ideal angles), then you have all the ingredients of a potentially elite power bat. Barger also rebounded from a brutal end to the season and had one of the best postseason runs by a hitter in a long time. 

The Bad

Despite the overwhelming amount of data that supports Barger, we still have to be cognizant of some red flags that could hold him back from reaching his ceiling, and it mainly comes from his approach at the plate.
Naturally, for a guy who swings as hard as he does and hits the ball as hard as he does, Barger has some holes in his swing. There is an element of chase to his game.
  • 30th percentile chase rate (31.1%)
  • 37th percentile whiff rate (26.1%)
  • 32nd percentile K% (24.1)
  • 36th percentile BB% (7.2)
As you would expect, Barger crushes mistakes. His .589 xwOBA on pitches in the heart of the zone is firmly amongst the elite. However, his affinity for mashing baseballs has made him susceptible to pitches on the edges, which teams exploited more against him in the second half. This feels like something more of a fad than a trend, though.
As most young hitters with Barger’s profile go through an adjustment period once pitchers start pitching them differently, once they experience initial success, and this was validated by Barger’s fantastic run during the postseason, albeit in the smallest of small sample sizes. One last piece of context to consider when factoring in Barger’s disastrous end to the season, his BABIP dropped .101 points (.330 – .229) from August 1st till the end of the year, from where it was up until July 31st.

The Verdict

When you parse through all the information presented above, it becomes clear that the good definitely outweighs the bad.
When you have a hitter of Addison Barger’s profile, who’s now entering his age 2026 season with his first full year of the majors under his belt, who showed elite ability for 2+ months, then struggled mightily for the remaining two, before exploding under the brightest of lights, it’s impossible not to believe that there’s another level of hitter that’s about to blossom.
Now, this isn’t a direct comp because they aren’t the same profile of hitter, but it’s not hard to squint and see a potential 2025 Ben Rice type year for Barger in 2026. Especially if he cleans up his approach at the plate like it looked like he had done during October. Because let’s face it, his swing is too sick to be anything other than a star-level hitter.
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