After bringing future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer into the fold last week, the Blue Jays rotation is beginning to take shape. However, one spot in the rotation appears to be up for grabs, with Spring Training performances likely dictating which direction the team ends up going.

Despite a rough 2024 season, the Blue Jays’ starting pitching was the least of their worries last year, collectively authoring a 3.95 ERA, 14th in the major leagues. The first four spots of the Blue Jays rotation seem to be locked in. The club will be returning veterans Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt, to accompany Scherzer. Each pitcher has had stretches of dominance in their respective careers, but an argument could be made that each of their best days is potentially behind them in some regard.

Perhaps the most intriguing battle of the spring will be the Jays’ fifth rotation spot.

Yariel Rodríguez signed a five-year, $32 million deal last offseason, and was expected to be a hybrid starter/reliever in the big leagues. After battling some injury issues and spending some time at triple-A Buffalo to start the year, the 27-year-old ended up logging 21 starts for the Blue Jays, while never once coming out of the bullpen. He ended the season with a 4.47 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, averaging just over four innings per start. The elevated numbers and the decreased output innings-wise are why many people project Rodriguez to move to the bullpen in 2025, although he mostly stayed on an innings/pitch limit last year after not pitching competitively in 2023 while waiting to become MLB eligible.

Despite this, Ross Atkins has made it clear that he will enter spring training competing for a starting spot.

In last year’s second half, Bowden Francis went on one of the more spectacular runs of any Blue Jays pitcher in recent memory.

Francis earned a spot in the rotation out of Spring Training but struggled mightily out of the gate, being moved to the bullpen to work in tandem with Rodríguez early in the year. After returning from an injury and 14 relief appearances, he had the chance to start games while the team was out of the postseason race at the trade deadline. Across 10 second-half starts, he was second in the majors in ERA (1.80) and first in WHIP (0.60), as he may have been the best Jays story of an otherwise lost season. He took three no-hit bids past the 6th inning, while twice losing them in the 9th. All told, he engineered a 3.30 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 8.0 K/9 across 27 outings (13 starts).

If Francis were a few years younger and had been a more touted prospect coming up through the minor leagues, there would likely be no question whether a rotation spot would be his to start the year. However, some of the underlying numbers of his 2024 breakout suggest that he is set to come back down to earth in 2025. For one, despite his sparkling second-half ERA and WHIP, his xFIP of 3.89 suggests that he benefitted from luck being on his side. One of the most revealing numbers may be his 95.5% LOB rate during the second half, a number that no pitcher can keep up.

The expected regression at least opens the door for Francis to be beaten out of a rotation spot this spring. Despite turning 29 in April, he still has minor league options that the Blue Jays could choose to exercise if Rodríguez looks better in exhibition play, especially since he cannot be optioned without approval starting this season. Although his arsenal makes sense as a bulk reliever, the Cuban right-hander has made just one relief appearance (in Buffalo) compared to 29 starts since joining the organization but does possess a solid track record from his time in Japan in 2022 with the Chunichi Dragons.

Given how great of a story Francis was in the second half of last year, many will be clamouring for him to remain in the rotation. However, fans shouldn’t sleep on the possibility that it could be Rodriguez who rounds out the rotation come opening day.

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