The 2025 Toronto Blue Jays built a reputation as the comeback kids. They led MLB with 49 comeback wins, a franchise record. The Blue Jays seem to have carried that over into 2026.

20 of the Blue Jays ‘ wins have come in games where they trailed at one point heading into yesterday’s contest against the New York Mets. Despite having the 22nd-best record in MLB, the Blue Jays are tied for ninth in comeback wins.

A big reason for the Blue Jays’ number of comebacks is how much the offence struggles to score early in the game versus late in the game. The Blue Jays are 29th in runs scored through the first six innings of a game (202). Conversely, they’re fifth in runs scored in the seventh inning or later (141).

The Blue Jays’ inability to score early in games really came back to bite them in their four-game series against the Texas Rangers. In each game, the Blue Jays came back after falling behind, only to fall short in the end.

The earliest the Blue Jays scored in any game during their series against the Rangers was in the fifth inning. Eight of the Blue Jays’ 15 runs in the series were scored in the eighth or ninth inning.

While this may suggest that the Blue Jays struggle against starting pitching, the team has performed well against several of the league’s best starters.

The Blue Jays scored four runs against Paul Skenes, including a leadoff home run by George Springer, when they faced him in May. Skenes gave up a career-high nine hits against the Blue Jays, who won the game 5-2. Cam Schlitter gave up a season-high eight hits to the Blue Jays during their first series against the New York Yankees in May. The Blue Jays won that game 2-1. Chris Sale also gave up a season-high in hits against the Blue Jays. Toronto scored three runs on 10 hits against Sale in a 7-2 win over the Atlanta Braves in June.

The Blue Jays managed two runs on five hits against Jacob Misiorowski in a 9-7 win over the Milwaukee Brewers. Misiorowski has given up 16 earned runs across his 16 starts this season and has only given up five or more hits three times. So the problem isn’t that the Blue Jays can’t hit starting pitching. In fact, they seem to perform better than most teams against elite starters.

The struggles in the starting rotation exacerbate the Blue Jays’ difficulty scoring early. The Blue Jays have given up a run in the first inning of their last seven games. While the Blue Jays’ offence has earned some much-deserved criticism in 2026, there’s only so much they can do if they’re trailing before they even come to the plate.

The Blue Jays are 14th in runs against in 2026 (376). However, they are tied for eighth in runs against in the first inning (51). The third inning seems to be a particular challenge for the Blue Jays. They are third in runs against in the third inning (57).

So, the Blue Jays give up runs early and score late. That’s led to the Blue Jays being fourth in innings pitched while trailing (306).

The Blue Jays rank 27th in innings pitched per game start (IP/GS)(4.6), well below the league average of 5. 1/3 IP/GS. One factor in that stat is that the Blue Jays have had to do many bullpen games because of injuries to their starters. On those days, they typically have an opener who throws the first inning before bringing in a bulk arm. That does lower their IP/GS, but the starters have also struggled to last deep into games.

One reason for that is that Blue Jays pitchers rank sixth in pitches per plate appearance (3.94). Conversely, the Blue Jays’ offence is 27th in pitches per plate appearance (3.79). So while opponents drive up the Blue Jays pitchers’ count, the Blue Jays offence isn’t returning the favour.

All of this puts more strain on an already overworked bullpen. Blue Jays relievers have thrown the fourth-most innings in 2026 (358.1). Four Blue Jays relievers are in the top ten for appearances (T1 Mason Fluharty, T2 Tyler Rogers, T3 Jeff Hoffman and Louis Varland).

Because the starters are struggling to make it deep into games, and the offence is struggling to score early, Blue Jays relievers are not only having to throw a lot of innings, but they’re also being thrown into a lot of high-leverage situations. Blue Jays pitchers have thrown the second-most high-leverage innings (84 2/3).

Like the 2026 Blue Jays, the 2025 Blue Jays were one of the best teams at scoring late in games. They had the second-most runs scored in the seventh inning or later (281). The difference was that they had the sixth-most runs scored in the first six innings (517). The 2025 Blue Jays scored 35.2 percent of their runs in the last third of the game. They were able to pull off a lot of comebacks because they played well enough early on to stay in games, even if they fell behind.

The 2026 Blue Jays have scored 41.1 percent of their runs in the final third of the game. They are far too reliant on late surges from the offence. It’s led to some fun comebacks, but there have been many times, like in their four-game series against the Rangers, where they dig themselves too deep a hole to climb out.

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