Trade season is nearly upon us.

Less than a month to the July 31 trade deadline, there’s still plenty of uncertainty as to which teams will be buyers and sellers by the end of the month. One thing we do know is that the Toronto Blue Jays — who’re within a game of first in the AL East after winning two straight against the New York Yankees — will be buying following last season’s modest sell-off.

Among the front office’s top priorities will be fortifying a starting rotation that has lacked viable depth throughout the first half of 2025, as general manager Ross Atkins told reporters Monday. They’ll also be seeking a right-handed power bat and likely an upgrade at the back end of the bullpen.

Financially speaking, any additions will surely push the Blue Jays’ Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) payroll — currently at approximately $278 million — over the third luxury tax threshold of $281 million. That’s when penalties are increased to a 42.5-per-cent surcharge (first year only) and cause a club’s top selection in the following year’s draft (2026 in this case) to be pushed back 10 places.

Neither of those will likely impact this organization’s decision-making leading up to the trade deadline, and rightly so. They have a legitimate chance to not only return to the playoffs but to capture their first division title since 2015.

To reach that goal, Toronto must acquire more pitching, preferably another big-league-calibre starter. But those are always in high demand this time of year. Still, with plenty of salary coming off the books over these next few seasons, management should have the freedom to operate creatively rather than strictly targeting potential rental pitchers.

With that in mind, let’s take a wide scope at some of the arms that might become available via trade over the next four weeks.

Pending FA: No (signed through 2026, ’27 club option)

The Miami Marlins, who’ve surprisingly won eight straight, will be sellers yet again this season. That’s no surprise, and neither is that it’s only a matter of time until they trade Alcantara. But they don’t have to rush into that decision by July 31.

They could revisit this conversation during the off-season, especially since the 2022 NL Cy Young winner hasn’t done much to help his trade value since returning from Tommy John surgery, struggling to a 6.98 ERA and 4.69 FIP in 16 starts. Still, if the 29-year-old is available at a reasonable cost, he’d likely be worth the risk for the Blue Jays.

Pending FA: Yes (final season of three-year, $39-million contract)

Moving on to our first rental, Anderson would make plenty of sense as a mid-rotation starter for Toronto. The 35-year-old southpaw has fared pretty much how you’d expect him to, posting a respectable 4.12 ERA and 4.78 FIP in 17 starts while maintaining his effectiveness at inducing weak contact (79th percentile hard-hit rate against).

Andreson’s availability will probably come down to how the Los Angeles Angels perform this month, though, as they enter Wednesday’s slate at 42-42 and 1.5 games back of the final AL wild-card seed.

Pending FA: Yes (signed one-year, $1.1-million deal last off-season)

While the Texas Rangers, like many clubs, are still technically alive in the playoff race, the writing may already be on the wall regarding their fate ahead of this season’s trade deadline. This probably isn’t their year, and with several pending free agents looming, the opportunity to recoup assets for future post-season runs will soon arrive.

Jacob deGrom sits alone as the franchise’s most attractive trade chip, although the odds of him moving appear to be low, given his presumed lucrative acquisition cost. Tyler Mahle (rotator cuff strain) is probably staying put, too, now that he’ll be sidelined into August. That leaves us with Corbin, who’d be a decent depth starter amidst his bounce-back performance (4.26 ERA, 4.31 FIP in 15 starts).

Pending FA: Yes (avoided final arbitration year with one-year, $13.5-million deal)

The Arizona Diamondbacks, sitting three games out of a playoff spot entering Tuesday, are another team stuck in the murky middle, whose trade-deadline fate will be determined by these next few weeks. If they fall out, it’d likely shake loose a few impact arms, including Gallen.

The 29-year-old righty has struggled to recapture his All-Star performance from two seasons ago, enduring a rapid decline in velocity and pitch shape that has led to a career-worst showing (5.45 ERA, 4.97 FIP over 18 starts) in his walk year. The talent is still there, though, which he displayed on Tuesday — striking out 10 across seven innings of one-run ball.

Pending FA: Yes (signed one-year, $1.35-million contract in May, ~$958,000 prorated)

With Luis Robert Jr. injured and struggling when healthy, Houser — who owns a dazzling 1.90 ERA and 3.23 FIP across seven starts this season — could become the Chicago White Sox’s most coveted trade chip at this year’s deadline. And he put on quite the showcase in Toronto a few weeks ago, limiting the Blue Jays’ lineup to a pair of runs over 6.1 innings.

Perhaps they come back around to him if alternative trade routes prove unsuccessful.

Pending FA: Yes (final season of three-year, $24-million contract)

Circling back to the D-backs, Kelly should receive plenty of interest around the majors if his team ends up selling, especially considering he’s earning an affordable $7 million while pitching to a 3.49 ERA and 3.33 FIP in 17 starts with a 25.3-per-cent strikeout rate — the second-highest of his career.

Kelly’s changeup — which has produced a plus-32 run value since ’23, tied with Tarik Skubal’s for the third-highest in the majors among that offering — has been at the heart of his success this season and has positioned him to warrant a substantial return should he become available in a seller’s market.

Pending FA: No (second season of five-year, $77-million extension)

Now here’s where the Blue Jays could flex their financial muscles if they so choose.

Sure, they could take a flyer on Andrew Heaney, a pending free agent. But if management is open to thinking creatively, why not take a shot at Keller? Based on Pittsburgh’s desperate need for offence, the Pirates’ brass might be interested in shedding the 29-year-old’s contract so they can reallocate those savings for an impact bat or two.

While the strikeouts are down for Keller this season (career-low 18.5 per cent, excluding 2020), this team would be acquiring another dependable starter — fifth in innings pitched (471.2) since ’23 — who minimizes walks and misses barrels.

Pending FA: Yes (signed one-year, $7-million deal last off-season, ’26 mutual option)

The clock is ticking on the Kansas City Royals, who’re currently six games below .500 and running thin on time to salvage their season. Unless they’re able to turn the ship around quickly, odds are they’ll attempt a similar soft sell-off to the Blue Jays’ from a year ago, opening the door for Lorenzen to be traded mid-season for a third straight campaign.

Unlike 2023 and ’24, though, the 33-year-old’s first-half results haven’t looked as promising, based on his 4.95 ERA and 4.76 FIP in 17 starts thus far. Still, given his inexpensive contract, which includes a $1.5 million buyout on his ’26 option, he’d be a decent, cost-effective depth acquisition.

Pending FA: Yes (final season of three-year, $45-million contract, ’26 player option)

As for Lorenzen’s teammate, Lugo figures to be a far more desirable trade option for contenders, albeit as a mid-rotation starter. The 35-year-old, whose contract holds a $15 million player option for next season, has pitched well on the surface with his 2.74 ERA in 15 starts. But his 4.61 xERA is nearly two runs higher, as the veteran righty has struggled avoiding hard contact.

Lugo has been on an impressive roll lately, however, pitching to a stellar 1.26 ERA and 2.74 FIP with 31 strikeouts over five starts in June, logging at least five innings in each outing. And he enjoyed a career year last season, accounting for 4.6 fWAR through 206.2 innings.

Pending FA: Yes (signed $21.05-million qualifying offer last off-season)

Since the Cincinnati Reds are only two games back of the final NL wild-card seed, it’s probably in their best interest to wait as long as possible before deciding their fate as a buyer or seller. Or perhaps they’re better off doing a bit of both, and trading Martinez could be the most sensible pathway to achieving that feat.

With Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, rookie Chase Burns and eventually ace Hunter Greene (recovering from a strained groin), they probably don’t need Martinez, who’s likely to depart via free agency after this season. What their club lacks is controllable, impact position players — particularly in the outfield — and the Blue Jays could certainly offer that in return.

Pending FA: Yes (final season of six-year, $22-million extension, ’26 club option)

A few weeks ago, predicting the Milwaukee Brewers as potential sellers looked far more favourable than it does these days, considering they’ll begin play Tuesday with control of the second NL wild-card seed and are only 2.5 games back of the first-place Chicago Cubs in the Central. Nevertheless, Peralta’s future remains an intriguing question.

Barring a dramatic change, the 29-year-old will have his team-friendly $8 million club option exercised for next season before he reaches free agency during the ensuing winter. With all signs pointing toward him leaving Milwaukee, could they part with another soon-to-be free agent while contending for a playoff spot? Maybe. It’s happened before. But as long as they remain in the hunt, it’ll likely cost a premium.

Pending FA: Yes (signed one-year, $9-million contract last off-season)

Seeking a low-risk, high-reward rental starter, Soroka could be just the player teams such as the Blue Jays are looking for. Despite his unflattering 4.70 ERA and 4.33 FIP over 11 starts with the Washington Nationals, the 27-year-old’s underlying results make him a solid under-the-radar depth option, as evidenced by his 3.04 xERA (82nd percentile), 5.8-per-cent barrel rate against (83rd percentile) and .213 OPP xAVG (87th percentile).

Paired with his career-high 20.2-per-cent strikeout-to-walk rate difference (K-BB%), a potential homecoming for the Calgary, Alberta, native could have a considerable impact down the stretch.