14 years is a long time for a contract, and a lot can happen. But even with the risks involved, the Blue Jays had to pay Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and keep him in Toronto.

It’s not every day that you end up with a homegrown star who turns into one of the best 5-10 hitters in baseball. Even at 26 years old, there’s an argument for Guerrero Jr. that he could become the best hitter in franchise history. At this relatively early stage, I’d probably still give that honour to someone like Carlos Delgadao, but there’s no denying that the 4x All-Star is a special talent, and those don’t grow on trees.

While I understand that there are those who will worry that Guerrero Jr’s new 14-year/$500 million contract will ultimately be an overpay down the line, it was a risk the Blue Jays had to take for a variety of reasons. I also believe that even if things go sour somewhat early on in the decade and a half long commitment, it is still the kind of move the Blue Jays had to make if they want their fan base to continue to invest in this team.

Signing Guerrero Jr. all but ensures that the Jays will remain committed to winning in both the long and the short term. That lines up for a roster that is very much in “win now” mode at the moment, but it also makes sense alongside the expensive renovations that were completed at Rogers Centre over the last few years.

If this organization was planning on an impending rebuild, enhancing the stadium in significant ways (while raising ticket prices) made little sense. Locking up a homegrown star and the face of the franchise is a big deal, and that tangible commitment to winning goes a long way with the majority of the fan base. That should and will be reflected in ticket sales over time.

It also signals that the Blue Jays are committed to being the kind of team that swims in the deep end of the talent pool in baseball. Ross Atkins and his front office team have been aggressive in their pursuit of elite talent over the last few years, making a legitimate attempt to bring in stars like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and many more. After swinging and missing on many of those headline-grabbing courtships, letting Guerrero Jr. get away would have felt like a catastrophic loss. One of the overwhelming sentiments I kept reading in articles and on social media was, “If they can’t convince their own to stay, how are they going to bring premium free agents to Toronto?”.

Now that Guerrero has committed to spending what will likely be the remainder of his career as a Blue Jay, that narrative will begin to shift back to the positive. Seeing a player of that calibre commit to Toronto will have an impact, both on future free agents and likely with their impending players as well. Does this mean that Bo Bichette will eventually sign an extension? I don’t know that for sure, but I’d say the odds just increased with a freshly inked pact for his long-time teammate that he has continuously stated he wants to win a championship beside Guerrero.

On top of all of that, I’m not even sure that Guerrero’s contract will end up as much of an overpay when all is said and done.

For instance, look at the contract of Bryce Harper. It was a mammoth 13-year, $330 million contract that he signed back before the 2019 season. At the time, I recall many pundits saying that it was too much money and that the Phillies could suffer in time. That still may be the case by the end of the 2031 season when a 38-year-old Harper becomes a free agent again, but at this stage, the bulk of that contract has not only been worth it, but it’s bordering on a bargain. Harper is still an elite hitter and makes an AAV of just shy of $25.4 million. Sure, he’ll likely lose a step or two as he finishes out this contract over the next seven years, but I’m sure the Phillies will still call it an overwhelming success, and they have a World Series ring to show for it as well.

At the end of the day, only time will tell how this contract will work out for the Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but even as an expensive risk, it was one the Blue Jays had to take right now to continue keeping the contention mentality in play.