Spring training is the home of overreactions, both good and bad. It’s become an annual tradition across the entire industry, and this year’s no different.

With one week remaining in camp, the Toronto Blue Jays have already witnessed their fair share of standouts during Grapefruit League action on the pitching and position-player fronts. But the same can also be said about the number of pitchers and hitters who’ve struggled in the results department, too.

It’s usually best practice to take every spring training performance, good or bad, with a grain of salt. That tends to be the golden rule around this time of year. However, as with anything, there is often a bit of truth hidden inside a limited sample size.

Our job here is to try to unlock the truth behind the organization’s best and worst performers from this spring, and distinguish fact from fiction as to whether their results can be expected to carry over into the regular season. So, let’s dive in, beginning on the hitting side.

Varsho has been Toronto’s best hitter this spring, leading the team with his .432 AVG, .946 SLG, 255 wRC+ (100 league average), 10 extra-base hits — including four home runs, which also rank first — and 12 RBIs over 40 plate appearances. He looks primed for a career year, and what better time for one, given his pending free agency.

Staying healthy will likely be the 29-year-old outfielder’s biggest obstacle after playing just 71 games last season, limited by off-season shoulder surgery and a hamstring injury. But now that he’s back to full strength, the left-handed-hitting veteran has been crushing virtually everything in sight, posting a hard-hit rate north of 50 per cent — last year he produced a career-high 40.3 per cent clip.

The biggest difference with Varsho this spring has been his approach at the plate. He’s turned weakly-hit pop-ups on high-and-inside pitches, previously a major hole in his swing, into opposite-field line drives. That’s led to almost 42 per cent of his balls in play being driven the other way, which he hopes will lead to more contact in 2026. As should the improved plate discipline he’s shown, whiffing just eight times on 68 swings (11.8 per cent).

Verdict: Fact

Few Blue Jays hitters have likely opened more eyes this spring than Jiménez. Now that he’s 100 per cent healthy, this has been the best version we’ve seen of him in several years, closely resembling his best days with the Chicago White Sox, particularly his 30-home-run season in 2019.

Jiménez, who ranks second among Blue Jays hitters in hard-hit balls (95 m.p.h. exit velo or higher) with 16 this spring, behind only Varsho’s team-leading 20, has impressed to a .297/.350/.541 slash line with five extra-base hits (two home runs) and a 127 wRC+ across 40 plate appearances. He’s also pulled over half of his batted balls, which, when you’re producing as many hard-hit balls as he is, is typically indicative of sustainable power production.

The only factor keeping him off Toronto’s Opening Day roster might be his position as a corner outfielder/DH type. But if there’s a need for a bit more thump, management knows where to look first.

Verdict: Fact

Though Kasevich — who’s yet to be reassigned to minor-league camp this spring — will likely begin this season at Triple-A Buffalo, he’s made quite the impression on the Blue Jays’ brass, mainly with the strides he’s made at the plate.

They already knew about the 25-year-old infielder’s sure-handed fielding at shortstop. It’s been his most appealing trait as a prospect. But they’ve had their eyes opened to his encouraging bat-to-ball skills over these last few weeks, as manager John Schneider noted last week, which have put him third on the team in hard-hit balls (15) behind Jiménez and Varsho.

Following Kasevich’s injury-plagued 2025 campaign, he’s now well-positioned to help the big-league club at some point later this season — a notable development as he’ll be Rule 5-eligible next winter.

Verdict: Fact

With Alejandro Kirk attending the WBC, Valenzuela — also born in Mexico — has received an extended runway of playing time in major-league camp this spring, and the 25-year-old catcher has taken full advantage of those additional reps, hitting .304/.370/.478 with a 118 wRC+ in 27 plate appearances.

On top of catching some of the Blue Jays’ rotation regulars, most notably future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, the glove-first backstop has used this time to showcase additional upside with his offensive skill set. Given his subpar track record, though, we’ll likely require a larger sample size to determine the legitimacy of his impressive spring surge.

Verdict: Possible Fiction

Schneider, who’s hitting .103/.289/.103 with a measly 27 wRC+ over 38 plate appearances this spring, is one of the best examples of why exhibition results for most established major leaguers should be disregarded. He was 27 per cent above league average per wRC+ in 2025. By no means should we expect him to hit anywhere close to 100 points below the Mendoza Line (.200) this season.

Verdict: Fiction 

Jumping to Toronto’s notable pitching performances, Lauer’s 8.64 ERA in four Grapefruit League starts has many with itchy trigger fingers on social media ready to write him off as an expected regression candidate. While he may be due for a modest regression, there’s a reason the Blue Jays aren’t sounding alarms right now.

For many veteran arms like Lauer, spring training is the perfect opportunity to test things out without worrying about results. Along those lines, the 30-year-old lefty said following Wednesday’s outing against the New York Yankees that he’s been mostly focused on increasing the usage of his kick-change after throwing it less than five per cent last season.

Lauer also revealed that he’s been trying to turn his curveball into more of an out-pitch rather than a “steal-a-strike” pitch during 0-0 counts. But he’s never been good at burying that pitch below the strike zone. Oftentimes, his muscle memory has taken over, wanting to flip it over for an easy strike — as it did versus Giancarlo Stanton, who crushed an 0-0 hanging curveball 411 feet for a no-doubter in Wednesday night’s affair.

Nobody inside the Blue Jays organization is paying any attention to Lauer’s results this spring, so neither should anyone else.

Verdict: Fiction

In five spring appearances, Little hasn’t surrendered a run thus far, striking out over a third of his 23 batters faced. The left-hander’s impressive performance goes beyond the boxscore, though, as he’s added a high-90s four-seamer — as well as a hard slider — to go along with his sinker-knuckle curve combo that may help him throw more strikes this season.

Little’s new fastball, which has topped out at 98.4 m.p.h. this spring, is designed to open up the upper third of the strike zone to prevent opponents from continuing to sit on his top two offerings in the bottom third quadrant. Given its explosive velocity, the hope is that it can reduce his walk total while further enhancing his 100th percentile whiff rate (43.5 per cent) from 2025.

Verdict: Fact

Coleman has also pitched run-free this spring, logging 6.2 scoreless innings with only three hits allowed, issuing four walks and six strikeouts. After racking up a 40 per cent strikeout rate with High-A Vancouver last season, the 24-year-old southpaw has picked up right where he left off, generating a swing and miss over a third of the time with his low-80s changeup.

Minimizing free passes has proven troublesome in the past for the undrafted reliever prospect, which will remain the prime area of focus heading into his ’26 campaign. But if he can keep them in check, he should find himself advancing to Triple-A this season, positioning him as a potential late-season option for the Blue Jays’ bullpen, too.

Verdict: Likely Fact

Results-wise, it’s been a rough spring for Garkow, who owns an inflated 13.50 ERA and 11.45 FIP over four innings in Grapefruit League play, allowing at least one run in all three of his relief appearances with the Blue Jays. But this is also the same reliever who featured a 7.56 ERA at High-A (albeit with an encouraging 3.87 FIP) before improving to a 1.22 ERA at Double-A in ’25.

The former Indy Ball pitcher possesses one of the best changeups in the organization, which fueled his elite strikeout rate (38.7 per cent) across 53.2 combined innings. He should be just fine once the regular season opens.

Verdict: Fiction 

Seabold, who owns 119 career innings of major league experience, has quickly shot up Toronto’s bullpen depth chart this spring — despite pitching to a 6.75 ERA and 4.90 FIP in 6.2 innings. He leads all Blue Jays pitchers in strikeouts (13) and has produced the second-highest whiff rate (46.8 per cent) among 412 hurlers who’ve thrown at least 100 pitches, trailing only Miami’s Eury Pérez (47.1 per cent).

At the forefront of the right-hander’s success has been increased fastball velocity, which has averaged a career-high 94.1 m.p.h. and regularly sat 95-96 this spring — the hardest he’s ever thrown before and two ticks faster than last season. Previously, he likely would’ve been this season’s Paxton Schultz in a multi-inning reliever role. Now, there’s potential for much higher upside.

Verdict: Fact