The Toronto Blue Jays were one team that couldn’t shake the injury bug last season when it came to their pitching staff. Almost every reliever had a stint (or two) on the injured list, Alek Manoah went down with Tommy John, and a host of other prospects needed surgery as well, including Brandon Barriera, Landen Maroudis, and former top prospect Ricky Tiedemann.

Heading into next season, the Jays have a set core of three in the rotation with José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, and Kevin Gausman but the remaining two spots are up for grabs, with Jake Bloss, Bowden Francis, and Yariel Rodríguez looking to make an impact as a starter in 2025. Should the Jays wish to add some more depth to the pile, they could look to the AL Central for a pending free agent to give the team some firepower toward the back half of the season.

Right-hander Shane Bieber has seen the highs and lows on the diamond. Boasting a career 3.22 ERA across 843 innings, the former Guardians starter heads to the open market with some question marks surrounding his future. No doubt that when he is healthy, he can be ace material – evident by his 2020 campaign where he put up a 1.63 ERA through 12 starts, earning the AL CY Young Award – but the problem is that he struggles to stay off the IL.

Bieber has made just 136 appearances across seven seasons and even with the condensed 2020 campaign, he has only broken the 25-game-started mark on two separate occasions (2019 and 2022). The 29-year-old has missed time due to various ailments, including multiple shoulder strains, elbow strains, and most recently Tommy John – which he underwent in mid-April this year.

Bieber only made two starts this season before undergoing Tommy John but they were both impressive outings.

He went six strong against both Oakland and Seattle and allowed just 10 hits and one walk without allowing a single earned run collectively. The veteran starter also struck out 20 batters between both contests and was poised to put forward a strong campaign after missing some time on the IL last season before undergoing elbow surgery.

This is where things get tricky. There isn’t a very good comparison or outlook for how Bieber’s contract might shake up because of the impending variables.

He likely won’t be ready to go until at least midway through the season and that is assuming everything goes according to plan and there are no setbacks. While a deal with three or more years (unless various options are involved) is likely off the table, a contract worth two years (with a potential third-year option) similar to what Brandon Woodruff inked last season might be the play. The Jays also have experience with this type of deal with Chad Green back in 2023.

The biggest hurdle will be the value of the deal as Bieber earned $13.125 million in his last year of arbitration and when healthy, he can be a top-of-the-rotation arm.

Considering he will return towards the back half of the season, any team looking for a boost down the stretch will benefit if he can return to form following the elbow surgery. Bieber likely won’t find a deal in the double digits of millions but it’s likely fair to assume between $5-10 million is in play. To throw some sort of comparison out there, Woodruff earned $2.5 million last year (he did not pitch) and is poised to earn $5 million this season (his mutual option is $20 million for 2026 with a $10 million buyout) and Bieber has more innings under his belt and a similar ERA and bWAR value over time.

For what it’s worth, Spotrac has Bieber’s market value at $24.5 million.

Yes and no.

Is the Blue Jays highest priority this offseason a starting pitcher? Not at all, especially since a few arms can find themselves in the rotation to start the year in Bloss, Francis, and Rodríguez. The Jays need some offense and bullpen arms more than anything and that should be the main focus.

That being said, the depth in the starting rotation is a tad thin given the injuries to Manoah, Tiedemann, and Chad Dallas and unless they find some veteran MiLB deals to plunk down in triple-A, an injury or two to the rotation out of the gate might spell some trouble. Factor in that Tiedemann and Manoah could be pushing for returns late in the season and the Jays might have enough depth to go around that doesn’t need Bieber in the picture from a depth perspective at least.

For the right price tag though, adding a high-calibre arm like Bieber and having him return in July/August would be a huge boost to a Blue Jays team looking to contend this season.

He would slot in ahead of the arms mentioned above and if he can return to the same form pre-surgery, the Jays likely have one of the top rotations in the league on a potential salary cap-friendly deal (again – depends on the price tag). With Chris Bassitt slated for free agency following 2025, if Bieber signed a deal that includes another year into 2026, a new core three forms as well for the following campaign.

Signing a pitcher like Bieber should not be the highest priority but if the opportunity presents itself, there is a fair argument to be made in signing him to a structured multi-year deal in a similar fashion to the Woodruff and Green pacts.