Over the last week or two, it has become clear that the Blue Jays are set make some significant moves this offseason. After sporting the ninth ranked payroll in the league last year, ownership has indicated they will spend around the same extent again this winter, expressing interest in mega-stud Juan Soto, among others.

If the team loses out on the Soto sweepstakes, they would presumably still be in the running for the other top free agents available. One of those guys is Tanner Scott, who has emerged into one of the best relievers in baseball over the last two seasons. The Blue Jays’ 29th ranked bullpen last season could use a massive overhaul this offseason. However, given the volatility of the position every year, signing a relief pitcher to a big contract is typically a risky move. The relatively young age and recent dominance by the lefthander could allow the Jays to pull the trigger. Even if it does remind some of the BJ Ryan contract of 2005.

The Orioles went well over slot to draft Scott in the 6th round of the 2014 draft out of Howard College with dreams of him emerging into a dominant late inning reliever. The lefthander touched triple digits from the left side coming out of college, but walks and a lack of quality secondary offerings led to him struggling early in his pro career.

Things came together for him in 2017, spinning a 2.22 ERA and striking out 87 in 69.0 innings in the minors en route to a late season debut in Baltimore. The next four seasons were up and down with Scott, as his strikeout stuff continued but walks remained an issue. His fielding independent pitching (FIP) of 4.00 showed he was good enough to stick around, although didn’t do a whole lot to impress.

The Orioles traded Scott to the Marlins in 2022 as part of a package to acquire a Competitive Balance draft pick. The lefthander posted his highest strikeout rate (12.9 K/9) and walk rate (6.61 BB/9) with the Marlins, but still worked his way into high leverage work for the Fish. He pitched in a career high 62.2 innings, closing out 20 saves on the year.

Everything came together for the pride of Warren, Ohio in 2023, with his walk rate plummeting to just 2.77 BB/9. He maintained his elite strikeout stuff while recording a 2.31 ERA on the season (2.17 FIP). His 2.8 WAR tied Felix Bautista for the highest among all relief pitchers. He did manage 12 saves, but he more so excelled in a set-up role for Miami.

Despite his walk rate climbing a bit higher to 4.50 BB/9, Scott continued his dominant run for the Marlins in 2024. He had a 1.18 ERA and 18 saves when he was traded to the San Diego Padres at the deadline. The 6’0″, 235 pounder proved to be a worth the steep price that the Padres paid, closing out the year as a key set-up man for closer Robert Suarez. Scott also ended the year on a high note striking out seven over 4.1 postseason innings, without allowing a run.

It’s not often that elite relievers hit free agency at the age of 30. However, there has been a huge relief pitcher contract given out in each of the last two off-season’s. Josh Hader snagged 5 years and $95 million from the Astros at age 30 last year, with 29-year old Edwin Diaz reaching 5 years, $102 million the year before. Scott does not have anywhere close to the experience of being an elite closer as those two, but those deals could indicate the length of a deal that the former Padre could receive.

Relievers typically hit free agency a year or two older than Scott, which usually limits them to shorter term deals. It may still be a surprise to see him net a five-year deal, but it seems like a good bet that he will at least reach four years. The closest comparison to a contract that Scott may garner could be Raisel Iglesias, who was the only other reliever  other than Hader and Diaz to sign for at least 4 years and over $10 million AAV per season ($58 million total) in the last seven years. Iglesias was two years older than Scott at the time of his deal, although he had a longer track record of elite production.

The heavy cost of relief pitching at last year’s trade deadline could make teams more comfortable in going out and spending money instead of trading away prospects. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see a number of teams interested in Scott’s services, as every team in the Major Leagues could use relief help.

There isn’t any doubt that the club has a lot of work to do to improve their bullpen heading into 2025. They somewhat surprising let Génesis Cabrera become a free agent, a guy that was one of the few somewhat reliable relief arms on the team. Signing Scott alone is not going to completely fix this bullpen, but it would certainly be a good place to start.

Having a strong closer in Jordan Romano from 2021-2023 allowed the team’s other relievers to fall into lower leverage roles. Despite never having a deep bullpen in that span, having a reliable guy on the back end allowed them to stay afloat. Even if Toronto brings back Romano following the 2025 campaign, they shouldn’t bank on him returning to being a quality closer next season after the elbow injury. They would also be wise to bring in a couple of other relievers into the fold, either from free agency or via trade.

Signing Scott would be risky given the volatility of relief pitchers, but it appears that with his age and his recent track record, he is deserving of a big payday. Providing that this is not the only significant move the club makes, I believe that signing Scott could certainly help get the Blue Jays back on track in 2025.