<p>Much of the Toronto Blue Jays&#8217; off-season, if not the entirety, hinges on the front office reaching a long-term contract extension with franchise cornerstone Vladimir Guerrero Jr. this winter. </p>
<p>Everyone is fully aware of that, including president and CEO Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins &#8212; even if neither admits it publicly. The franchise has to choose a direction for 2025 and beyond in the coming months, and there&#8217;s no better player they can hitch their wagon to than Guerrero, who was the second-best hitter in baseball post-All-Star break this season, with <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=&amp;qual=y&amp;type=8&amp;season=2024&amp;month=1000&amp;season1=2024&amp;ind=0&amp;startdate=2024-07-19&amp;enddate=2024-11-01&amp;team=0&amp;sortcol=17&amp;sortdir=default" target="_blank" rel="noopener">his 212 wRC+ trailing only New York&#8217;s Aaron Judge (236)</a>.</p>
<p>The 25-year-old superstar repeatedly said he desires to remain a Blue Jay for the rest of his career. He made that <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/amid-uncertain-times-for-blue-jays-guerrero-still-says-id-love-to-be-in-toronto/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proclamation multiple times earlier this year</a>, doubling down on his comments from previous seasons. There is no place he&#8217;d rather compete for a World Series title than in Toronto.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">&#8220;I want to spend all my life here.&#8221; 👀</p>
<p>Vladdy on being a Blue Jay long-term. <a href="https://t.co/4QPgWtGGZw">pic.twitter.com/4QPgWtGGZw</a></p>
<p>— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) <a href="https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1644515555662245889?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 8, 2023</a></p></blockquote>
<p>Now, here comes the challenging part: finding common ground on a contract extension. We all remember when both sides headed to an arbitration hearing after failing to agree on Guerrero&#8217;s 2024 salary. That, of course, was before he regained his MVP-calibre form this past season. Because of that, his camp holds almost all the leverage &#8212; if not all of it.</p>
<p>For a Blue Jays organization seeking to acquire multiple impact hitters, their attempts to address that need in free agency would undoubtedly run much smoother with Guerrero&#8217;s deal completed before the market opens five days after the World Series concludes. But that wouldn&#8217;t necessarily benefit the player.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s likely in the four-time All-Star&#8217;s best interest to wait before agreeing to his next contract, considering he can reach free agency after next season, one year after impending free agent Juan Soto signs his next deal.</p>
<p>Time is certainly not on Toronto&#8217;s side as it looks to lock up one of the sport&#8217;s most electrifying generational talents. The more time passes without a deal completed, the more likely management will have to create contingency plans around luring impact free agents amidst Guerrero&#8217;s unknown contractual status beyond 2025 &#8212; a less-than-ideal outcome.</p>
<p>Extending Bo Bichette, of course, could be a potential solution, albeit an unrealistic one. And the assumption that an agreement will eventually be reached with either player this off-season probably won&#8217;t suffice to entice any of the top-tier free agents not named Soto &#8212; such as Alex Bregman, Willy Adames, Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández and Tyler O&#8217;Neill.</p>
<p>Assuming anything shy of putting pen to paper will be insufficient, the Blue Jays will have to formulate alternative pitches that could convince one of those players to sign a multi-year commitment without Guerrero having already done the same. So, what might those be?</p>
<h2>Outbid Everyone Else</h2>
<p>That&#8217;s easier said than done, even for a market like Toronto, whose payroll nearly exceeded the luxury tax for a second consecutive season in 2024. Still, the franchise will have money to spend at a time when many other teams will either be looking to shed salary or keep things status quo due to financial restrictions.</p>
<p>If Guerrero isn&#8217;t extended when free agency opens, the Blue Jays could remain competitive against the 29 other clubs by outbidding everyone via money, term, or both. Perhaps that&#8217;d give them the edge as it did with George Springer in 2021 and Hyun Jin Ryu in &#8217;19.</p>
<p>Taking that approach is risky, especially given this year&#8217;s free-agent class consists of many notable players nearing or already above the age-30 threshold, a benchmark for when a player&#8217;s performance typically starts to decline. This organization has witnessed that firsthand with Springer, who&#8217;s taken a step back over the last two years and signed through 2026 at $25 million per season.</p>
<p>At the same time, it might be Toronto&#8217;s best avenue to land a marquee player in free agency without first extending Guerrero or Bichette.</p>
<h2>Sell Free Agents on Top-Notch Facilities</h2>
<p>The Blue Jays spent roughly $400 million on Rogers Centre renovations over the past two off-seasons and another $100 million &#8212; although most of that was public funding &#8212; when they renovated TD Ballpark and the player development complex in Dunedin, Fla., from 2018-20. Now, it&#8217;s time to leverage some of those upgrades.</p>
<p>Most players don&#8217;t decide their future based on an organization&#8217;s major league and spring training facilities, at least in most cases. However, the quality of those services could help swing the pendulum in a certain team&#8217;s favour, similar to how <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/toronto-blue-jays-shohei-ohtani-reportedly-meet-at-clubs-training-complex-in-dunedin" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this franchise hoped it would while hosting Shohei Ohtani at its PDC last off-season</a>.</p>
<p>Now that renovations at the Blue Jays&#8217; home ballpark are completed, they can perhaps stand out differently than in previous free-agent negotiations.</p>
<h2>Fully Committed to Contending in &#8217;25, Zero Plans of Off-Season Rebuild</h2>
<p>Following a modest sell-off at the trade deadline, many believed the Blue Jays could revisit a potential teardown this winter if the market didn&#8217;t develop the way this front office originally planned. But they put any speculation to rest last week, announcing they&#8217;re solely focused on competing next season.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueJays</a> are ditching the safety net for 2025. They are all-in on next year, any potential last-minute reset is not happening this winter, per Atkins.</p>
<p>— Thomas Hall (@Hall_Thomas_) <a href="https://twitter.com/Hall_Thomas_/status/1841513024823202217?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 2, 2024</a></p></blockquote>
<p>Granted, any other response would&#8217;ve raised plenty of concerns throughout the industry, further complicating Toronto&#8217;s position to pursue free agents. At the same time, it allows the organization to hammer this message home while outlining the benefits of representing an entire country compared to a singular market.</p>
<h2>Make a Splash Via Trade</h2>
<p>Actions speak louder than words, right? So, instead of making an elaborate pitch to a marquee free-agent hitter, perhaps the most effective strategy the Blue Jays can use is acquiring a notable bat from the trade market who&#8217;s signed or under club control beyond 2025.</p>
<p>That way, any player who inks a multi-year contract can rest easy knowing they won&#8217;t be left standing alone if Guerrero and Bichette remain unsigned after next season. While there may not be many hitters of that calibre available via trade, the market should include at least a few impact sluggers, namely Oakland&#8217;s Brent Rooker and Texas&#8217; Adolis García.</p>
<p>Rooker, a free agent after 2027, is coming off a career season and will start to become more expensive for the Athletics, given he&#8217;s first-time arbitration-eligible this winter.</p>
<p>García, meanwhile, is signed for one more season at a team-friendly $9.25 million and has one final year of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency in &#8217;27. After <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/40597054/2024-mlb-trade-deadline-tracker-rumors-news-latest-updates-analysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reportedly being made available</a> ahead of this season&#8217;s trade deadline, maybe the Rangers would be willing to field offers on the slugging outfielder again this winter despite coming off a poor offensive campaign.</p>
<h2>Include Full No-Trade Clause</h2>
<p>Because of <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/10-and-5-rights" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MLB&#8217;s 10-and-5 rights</a>, no-trade clauses aren&#8217;t as common in baseball as they are in other sports like hockey and football. Having said that, they remain a valuable bargaining tool for free agents in an era of constant turnover, which the Blue Jays&#8217; brass could use to its advantage.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s important to note this regime hasn&#8217;t given out a full no-trade clause during its reign, only issuing limited clauses to George Springer, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt on the current roster. But these are unique circumstances. Without a clear path forward after 2025, offering complete control would likely become a necessity for any marquee free agent interested in joining a core that could lose both Guerrero and Bichette next winter.</p>

Much of the Toronto Blue Jays' off-season, if not the entirety, hinges on the front office reaching a long-term contract extension with franchise cornerstone Vladimir Guerrero Jr. this winter. 

Everyone is fully aware of that, including president and CEO Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins -- even if neither admits it publicly. The franchise has to choose a direction for 2025 and beyond in the coming months, and there's no better player they can hitch their wagon to than Guerrero, who was the second-best hitter in baseball post-All-Star break this season, with <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=&amp;qual=y&amp;type=8&amp;season=2024&amp;month=1000&amp;season1=2024&amp;ind=0&amp;startdate=2024-07-19&amp;enddate=2024-11-01&amp;team=0&amp;sortcol=17&amp;sortdir=default" target="_blank" rel="noopener">his 212 wRC+ trailing only New York's Aaron Judge (236)</a>.

The 25-year-old superstar repeatedly said he desires to remain a Blue Jay for the rest of his career. He made that <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/amid-uncertain-times-for-blue-jays-guerrero-still-says-id-love-to-be-in-toronto/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proclamation multiple times earlier this year</a>, doubling down on his comments from previous seasons. There is no place he'd rather compete for a World Series title than in Toronto.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">"I want to spend all my life here." 👀</p>
Vladdy on being a Blue Jay long-term. <a href="https://t.co/4QPgWtGGZw">pic.twitter.com/4QPgWtGGZw</a>

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) <a href="https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1644515555662245889?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 8, 2023</a></blockquote>
Now, here comes the challenging part: finding common ground on a contract extension. We all remember when both sides headed to an arbitration hearing after failing to agree on Guerrero's 2024 salary. That, of course, was before he regained his MVP-calibre form this past season. Because of that, his camp holds almost all the leverage -- if not all of it.

For a Blue Jays organization seeking to acquire multiple impact hitters, their attempts to address that need in free agency would undoubtedly run much smoother with Guerrero's deal completed before the market opens five days after the World Series concludes. But that wouldn't necessarily benefit the player.

It's likely in the four-time All-Star's best interest to wait before agreeing to his next contract, considering he can reach free agency after next season, one year after impending free agent Juan Soto signs his next deal.

Time is certainly not on Toronto's side as it looks to lock up one of the sport's most electrifying generational talents. The more time passes without a deal completed, the more likely management will have to create contingency plans around luring impact free agents amidst Guerrero's unknown contractual status beyond 2025 -- a less-than-ideal outcome.

Extending Bo Bichette, of course, could be a potential solution, albeit an unrealistic one. And the assumption that an agreement will eventually be reached with either player this off-season probably won't suffice to entice any of the top-tier free agents not named Soto -- such as Alex Bregman, Willy Adames, Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández and Tyler O'Neill.

Assuming anything shy of putting pen to paper will be insufficient, the Blue Jays will have to formulate alternative pitches that could convince one of those players to sign a multi-year commitment without Guerrero having already done the same. So, what might those be?
<h2>Outbid Everyone Else</h2>
That's easier said than done, even for a market like Toronto, whose payroll nearly exceeded the luxury tax for a second consecutive season in 2024. Still, the franchise will have money to spend at a time when many other teams will either be looking to shed salary or keep things status quo due to financial restrictions.

If Guerrero isn't extended when free agency opens, the Blue Jays could remain competitive against the 29 other clubs by outbidding everyone via money, term, or both. Perhaps that'd give them the edge as it did with George Springer in 2021 and Hyun Jin Ryu in '19.

Taking that approach is risky, especially given this year's free-agent class consists of many notable players nearing or already above the age-30 threshold, a benchmark for when a player's performance typically starts to decline. This organization has witnessed that firsthand with Springer, who's taken a step back over the last two years and signed through 2026 at $25 million per season.

At the same time, it might be Toronto's best avenue to land a marquee player in free agency without first extending Guerrero or Bichette.
<h2>Sell Free Agents on Top-Notch Facilities</h2>
The Blue Jays spent roughly $400 million on Rogers Centre renovations over the past two off-seasons and another $100 million -- although most of that was public funding -- when they renovated TD Ballpark and the player development complex in Dunedin, Fla., from 2018-20. Now, it's time to leverage some of those upgrades.

Most players don't decide their future based on an organization's major league and spring training facilities, at least in most cases. However, the quality of those services could help swing the pendulum in a certain team's favour, similar to how <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/toronto-blue-jays-shohei-ohtani-reportedly-meet-at-clubs-training-complex-in-dunedin" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this franchise hoped it would while hosting Shohei Ohtani at its PDC last off-season</a>.

Now that renovations at the Blue Jays' home ballpark are completed, they can perhaps stand out differently than in previous free-agent negotiations.
<h2>Fully Committed to Contending in '25, Zero Plans of Off-Season Rebuild</h2>
Following a modest sell-off at the trade deadline, many believed the Blue Jays could revisit a potential teardown this winter if the market didn't develop the way this front office originally planned. But they put any speculation to rest last week, announcing they're solely focused on competing next season.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueJays</a> are ditching the safety net for 2025. They are all-in on next year, any potential last-minute reset is not happening this winter, per Atkins.</p>
— Thomas Hall (@Hall_Thomas_) <a href="https://twitter.com/Hall_Thomas_/status/1841513024823202217?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 2, 2024</a></blockquote>
Granted, any other response would've raised plenty of concerns throughout the industry, further complicating Toronto's position to pursue free agents. At the same time, it allows the organization to hammer this message home while outlining the benefits of representing an entire country compared to a singular market.
<h2>Make a Splash Via Trade</h2>
Actions speak louder than words, right? So, instead of making an elaborate pitch to a marquee free-agent hitter, perhaps the most effective strategy the Blue Jays can use is acquiring a notable bat from the trade market who's signed or under club control beyond 2025.

That way, any player who inks a multi-year contract can rest easy knowing they won't be left standing alone if Guerrero and Bichette remain unsigned after next season. While there may not be many hitters of that calibre available via trade, the market should include at least a few impact sluggers, namely Oakland's Brent Rooker and Texas' Adolis García.

Rooker, a free agent after 2027, is coming off a career season and will start to become more expensive for the Athletics, given he's first-time arbitration-eligible this winter.

García, meanwhile, is signed for one more season at a team-friendly $9.25 million and has one final year of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency in '27. After <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/40597054/2024-mlb-trade-deadline-tracker-rumors-news-latest-updates-analysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reportedly being made available</a> ahead of this season's trade deadline, maybe the Rangers would be willing to field offers on the slugging outfielder again this winter despite coming off a poor offensive campaign.
<h2>Include Full No-Trade Clause</h2>
Because of <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/10-and-5-rights" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MLB's 10-and-5 rights</a>, no-trade clauses aren't as common in baseball as they are in other sports like hockey and football. Having said that, they remain a valuable bargaining tool for free agents in an era of constant turnover, which the Blue Jays' brass could use to its advantage.

It's important to note this regime hasn't given out a full no-trade clause during its reign, only issuing limited clauses to George Springer, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt on the current roster. But these are unique circumstances. Without a clear path forward after 2025, offering complete control would likely become a necessity for any marquee free agent interested in joining a core that could lose both Guerrero and Bichette next winter.

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