How Might the Blue Jays and Braves Line Up In Trade?

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Nov 15, 2017, 19:27 ESTUpdated: Nov 15, 2017, 23:19 EST
Alex Anthopoulos has just now barely begun to get his feet wet as GM of the Atlanta Braves, so it’s maybe a little bit early to start thinking about the return of his big tradin’ ways. But Anthopoulos has never been shy to make deals, or to push for deals, and over his years in Toronto we certainly saw that there were certain players that, once they caught his eye, he found it difficult to shake the idea of acquiring them.
Surely there are players in the Jays’ organization he might have his eye on, and who his successors might not feel quite so attached to.
Sure, we might not see such feelings manifest themselves in a trade anytime soon. It’s not like Mark Shapiro rushed into acquiring guys from Cleveland who Chris Antonetti didn’t value in the same way he did — well… not players, at least. But with both clubs having some heavy lifting to do this offseason, it’s never too soon to start thinking about how they might eventually line up — if they even do. So let’s!
There is a pretty obvious place to start here — two of them — and that’s the outfield and the bullpen. The Jays need an outfielder, and Atlanta needs to find a place for one. That is, assuming he isn’t made a free agent as a penalty for the malfeasance of the Barves’ previous GM* — which, if I know anything about MLB justice, I think it’s safe to assume he won’t. Ronald Acuña is one of the very few prospects in baseball — perhaps the only prospect in baseball — that people will put ahead of Vlad Guerrero Jr., and after blasting through three levels in 2017 — his slash line went from .287/.336/.478 in 28 games at High-A, to .326/.374/.520 in 57 games at Double-A, to .344/.393/.548 in 54 games at Triple-A — he needs a place to play. This means that Anthopoulos will likely be looking to move at least one of his two corner outfielders, Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis.
Would the Blue Jays have interest in either of those two? Kemp, no. I don’t think so. Even if Atlanta is paying the hefty freight, I really don’t see it. A declining right-handed outfielder with poor defence? Yeah, I think we’ve tried that. Plus he’s injury prone! And while Kemp was a league average hitter last year, and posted a 109 wRC+ in each of the two years previous, that’s all power — his on-base marks have been .312, .304, and .318. Hard pass. Markakis, though? You don’t get great defence — though it’s better — and you don’t get speed… or power. But a lefty hitter whose OBP has ranged from .346 to .370 the last two years? Sure, there could be something there. And the Braves could use some relief help, too, which the Jays maybe have a surplus of that they can deal from.
But… yeah. I think Atlanta is going to be looking a little higher-end than any of the Jays’ non-Osuna relievers. And I’d like to believe the Jays will be aiming higher than Markakis, too.
Then again, maybe they’ll aim lower: Matt Adams is a lefty bat who might pair well with Steve Pearce at DH… if the Jays had a spot available at DH. To platoon them in left field, however, would almost certainly be a terrible idea. And probably no better than the less-than-ideal platoon of Pearce and Zeke Carrera. Maybe even worse, if you consider that Adams, though he was liked better by UZR, put up a -5 DRS in just 129 innings in left field last season (the first season of his career in which he played there — though I use the term loosely).
Ender Inciarte, with his blend of speed, good outfield defence, on-base skill, and team-friendly contract would certainly be a prize that the Jays could try to land from Atlanta — especially since he too is a lefty bat. But how? And why would Anthopoulos be rushing to give him up?
Josh Donaldson could be a reason! And since AA landed in Atlanta people have certainly started to get it in their heads that the former MVP, who hails from neighbouring Alabama (albeit on the gulf coast, so a good four or five hour drive away), is now for some reason destined to go there — as though Alex is the only person in baseball who has ever noticed that Donaldson is good. Of course, Atlanta would like to add a third baseman this season. And they do have a whole lot of interesting prospects to offer, should the Jays actually get serious about such a move. In fact, Anthopoulos told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution this week that his new staff is very high on their own third base prospect, Austin Riley, who excelled in a move up to Double-A in the middle of this season, and has performed well in the Arizona Fall League as well. Would someone like that be enough for the Jays to part with Donaldson? If he were big league ready right now, perhaps — but if he were that the need to push hard for the last year of Donaldson’s deal probably wouldn’t be there.
OK, so how about if utility man Johan Camargo — who in 2017 spent time at second, third, short, and played an inning in left, too — was involved somehow? Thing is, I doubt it. Camargo’s nice season at the plate (.299/.331/.452, 102 wRC+) was powered by a pretty unrepeatable .364 BABIP, and if that regresses there’s not a lot of on-base skill, speed, or power there. So… I mean, the Jays almost certainly (hopefully) aren’t moving Josh Donaldson anyway, but even if they were, Camargo probably wouldn’t move the needle.
Which is to say… there maybe aren’t a whole lot of places where the two teams line up.
For now.
If the Braves are competitive in the NL East — which, with their youth movement now three years old, and a bunch of very good young players already there and still coming, they may well be — and if the Jays falter in their own attempt to hang in the playoff race, well… maybe it’s something to explore again. And if it’s the other way around, and the Jays are looking to add, perhaps a Conner Greene, or a Max Pentecost, or a Sean Reid-Foley, or any number of young players drafted and nurtured by the Jays during the Anthopoulos years — and possibly not quite as revered by the new group — could help land the Jays a nice piece.
Or maybe there will be nothing here at all. I don’t know! But I suppose what I do know is that, if there’s a trade to be made, Alex is going to find a way to make it.
*Update: Like a moron I said Acuña here, when clearly I meant Kevin Maitan. Speaking of which, over at the Athletic, Ken Rosenthal tells us that Maitan indeed may be made a free agent — one of many potential “penalties the Atlanta Braves will receive for violating rules in the international market” that “commissioner Rob Manfred is still deciding.” But Rosenthal notes that penalties “will definitely include the loss of prospects the team signed out of Latin America.” Also, on a completely other note, I suppose I could have mentioned Julio Teheran in this piece, huh? Thought about it, but — in addition with growing weary of the whole conceit — I figured Atlanta wouldn’t quite be ready to create that kind of a hole in their rotation, given that their best young arms, like Max Fried, Kolby Allard, and Mike Soroka, maybe aren’t quite Opening-Day-ready. Then again, Anthopoulos isn’t opposed to rushing guys, so maybe you never know…
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