To trade, or not to trade, that is the question currently surrounding José Berríos’ uncertain future as the temperature of the off-season’s hot stove intensifies.

It’s too early to predict an outcome, of course, given that several balls are still in the air. But, when there’s smoke, there’s usually fire — and there’s plenty of smoke percolating around the Toronto Blue Jays and Berríos right now.

Heading into this week’s winter meetings in Orlando, Fla., multiple reports indicated that the front office was willing to listen to offers for the 31-year-old starter after bolstering the rotation with Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce. Those free-agent splashes have provided this team with more MLB-calibre starters than rotation spots available, further fueling trade speculation.

On top of that roster crunch, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins shared Berríos’ disappointment on Monday when he was moved to the bullpen late last season and ultimately left off the franchise’s post-season roster, which, essentially, is pretty much equal to pouring gas on a fire in this situation. But don’t hide the fire extinguisher just yet.

By no means do the Blue Jays have to trade Berríos this winter. They could very easily hold onto him ahead of next season, preserving the organization’s immense starting pitching depth once spring training begins and guarding against potential injuries or workload-management concerns with Shane Bieber (entering first full season post-Tommy John surgery) or rookie Trey Yesavage (entering second professional campaign).

In the event those issues don’t arise, though, Berríos would be forced to compete for the fifth starter’s job next spring, battling alongside Ponce and Eric Lauer. If the two-time All-Star loses that competition, it’d put him in the same position he faced last fall — on the outside looking in, perhaps needing to return to the bullpen.

Such an outcome may further strain a relationship that already requires mending from last season. So, it’s easy to see why Toronto’s front office is, at least, keeping the door open on the Berríos trade front. Having said that, constructing a deal, if that’s the pathway ultimately chosen, would pose its challenges due to the right-hander’s remaining contract and declining performance.

After next season, Berríos will have two options: 1. trigger his two-year, $48 million player option or 2. decline that option and enter free agency. If he opts in, performance-based escalators over 2027-28 could max out his earnings by an extra $5 million, further impacting his trade value — or lack thereof.

Berríos’ value isn’t completely diminished, however. Despite having his IL-free streak broken last season, he still offers plenty of durability with 158 games started since 2021 — tied with rotation mate Kevin Gausman and Logan Webb for second-most in the majors, behind only Cease (162).

There’s also the chance that Berríos bounces back in 2026, regaining his form as a dependable mid-rotation starter — upside that could also play into his case to remain with the Blue Jays this off-season. Plus, starting pitching is always in demand this time of year, even for someone with as many red flags as Berríos. So, there’ll surely be teams who inquire about his services.

Any potential trade for Berríos would likely need to be a dollar-for-dollar transaction (to borrow a hockey term). Admittedly, that automatically limits the number of potential suitors capable of engaging in trade conversations. Even so, there are a handful of clubs that figure to be ideal partners for the Blue Jays’ brass, at least theoretically.

*Potential trade package*

Blue Jays receive: 2B Ketel Marte

D-backs receive: SP José Berríos, SP Adam Macko, SP Johnny King & cash

If Bo Bichette departs and Kyle Tucker signs elsewhere, having Marte — worth a combined 15.3 fWAR since 2023, most among big-league second basemen — as a fallback option would almost be a dream scenario, perhaps one too good to be true.

Arizona is believed to desire young, controllable starting pitching in return for Marte’s services. Naturally, the first name that’d be discussed if Toronto were to make a serious push would be Yesavage. But the rookie phenom is almost certainly untouchable at this point, coming off his historic post-season performance that has set enormous expectations for ’26.

The combination of Macko and King would provide a close-to-MLB-ready arm in the former and a rising top-end prospect in the latter. But that duo may not be sufficient to pry the superstar switch-hitter away from the D-backs. It may also require someone like Ricky Tiedemann, too.

Including Berríos in this package for Marte — who’ll receive 10-and-5 rights this month, earning him a full no-trade clause — would be designed to help offset some of the salary exchanging hands, with the 32-year-old infielder signed through 2030 at roughly $15 million per season with an $11.5 million player option in ’31.

*Potential trade package*

Blue Jays receive: 2B Jeff McNeil, RP Huascar Brazobán

Mets receive: SP José Berríos, OF Joey Loperfido & cash

New York desperately needs starting pitching, and Toronto could be in the market for a second baseman if Bichette doesn’t return. They could help both address each other’s needs with one move.

After acquiring former Blue Jay Marcus Semien, McNeil — on the books for $15.75 million next season with a 2027 club option ($2 million buyout) at that same price, along with a looming $500,000 trade bonus — figures to move to the outfield next season. Given the Mets’ need for an impact outfielder or two, they’d probably be better served swapping him out for someone like Loperfido.

Since McNeil’s likely to hit free agency next winter, the Blue Jays would need to retain a considerable amount of Berríos’ salary over the next three seasons to help facilitate a deal, which may allow them to command a depth reliever like Brazobán — who’ll have one option remaining in ’26.

*Potential trade package*

Blue Jays receive: 2B Jake Cronenworth, RP Yuki Matsui

Padres receive: SP José Berríos

Based on Cronenworth’s remaining contract (owed approximately $12.3 million per season through 2030), this might be the only trade that wouldn’t require the Blue Jays to retain salary on Berríos’ deal.

If anything, the Padres could end up being more desperate in this scenario, given the organization’s depleted rotation following Cease’s departure. They currently have Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove (missed all last season due to Tommy John surgery) slated to lead their rotation next season, but could certainly benefit from adding someone as durable as Berríos.

Depending on San Diego’s spending limitations, unloading Matsui’s remaining contract — $5.75 million in 2026 and $6.5 million in 2027 with a $7 million player option for ’28 — would likely allow them to absorb the entirety of Berríos’ salary. Though the 30-year-old reliever has largely struggled since arriving from Japan, he may present some untapped potential with a few pitch usage tweaks, particularly with his plus curveball.

Three other teams could become potential matches for Berríos, albeit as salary-dumping destinations: the Athletics, Angels and Giants.

The A’s figure to move Luis Severino this off-season or by next season’s trade deadline, and they’ve shown a considerable desire to increase payroll ahead of their expected move to Las Vegas in 2028. Adding a veteran starter like Berríos, who’d provide stability to their rotation with a fresh wave of young arms set to debut over the next few seasons, could bring them another step closer to regaining relevance.

That could also be true for the Angels, who remain in search of starting pitching upgrades after acquiring former Blue Jay Alek Manoah and Grayson Rodriguez in the Taylor Ward trade. Los Angeles needs to stockpile as many starters as possible after its rotation ranked 28th in fWAR (6.1) last season.

The Giants still appear to be big-game hunting in free agency, seeking a ceiling-raising acquisition for a rotation led by Webb — a similar position the Blue Jays faced themselves not too long ago. If former All-Star catcher and current president of baseball operations Buster Posey strikes out on that front, targeting someone with bounce-back potential such as Berríos may be in the cards.