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Jeff Passan changes stance on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extension: “$300 million is going to be the floor rather than the ceiling”
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Photo credit: © Reggie Hildred - USA Today
Cam Lewis
Aug 10, 2024, 11:00 EDTUpdated: Aug 10, 2024, 11:03 EDT
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Jeff Passan has changed his stance on what we should expect Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s next contract to look like.
The ESPN Insider appeared on Sportsnet 590 with Jeff Blair and Kevin Barker last week and was asked whether the Blue Jays should simply offer their star first baseman a blank cheque. Passan replied that baseball is too “value-oriented” for first basemen to command the largest contracts in the league and that New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso’s next contract would be a reasonable blueprint for Vladdy.
Passan again joined Blair and Barker on Friday and admitted that his logic behind what Guerrero Jr. would be able to earn on a long-term extension was incorrect and that there was a better comparable he hadn’t considered…
“I need to come in with responses to what I said last week on the show when I said I don’t think Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is going to be a $300 million first baseman because I don’t think a $300 million first baseman exists. I heard from a couple of people in the industry who said ‘you’re a moron, go look at the numbers.’
Somebody made a very good comparison that I hadn’t thought of — Rafael Devers. He’s one of the best players in baseball, he plays third base, I don’t think Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is going to be a third baseman long-term, but the expectation was that Rafael Devers was going to eventually move to first base.
You can make the argument that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is on the same level when it comes to hitting. The bat and the age are going to make it such that $300 million is going to be the floor rather than the ceiling.”
When Alonso plays the first season of the contract he signs this winter as a free agent, he’ll be 30 years old. Guerrero Jr. has one more season left of team control and he’s on his way to reaching the open market at the age of 26. Devers signed his 10-year, $313 million extension in January of 2023 as he was entering his final season of team control. He was also 26 years old that season.
After a slow start to the season, Guerrero Jr. has been one of the best hitters in baseball. His .323 batting average through 501 plate appearances is the highest of his Major League career and his .946 on-base plus slugging percentage is the best he’s had since his AL MVP runner-up showing in 2021.
Vladdy spoke with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand at the All-Star Game in Texas back in July and said that he’s interested in signing long-term with Toronto but that he and the Blue Jays are nowhere close when it comes to contract negotiations.
“Like I’ve mentioned before, I control what I can control,” Guerrero said through an interpreter. “I’m just trying to go out there and give my 100 percent and whatever happens after that, I can’t control it.”
Guerrero and the Blue Jays have discussed a potential extension, but sources said the two sides were not particularly close to getting a deal done. Guerrero said he hopes to remain with the only club for which he has ever played, but he knows that the possibility of a trade will continue to exist.
“I would love to be in Toronto,” Guerrero said. “My family loves Toronto, my kids love Toronto, but at the end of the day, it’s a business. We all need to understand that, so whatever happens happens. Definitely, I would like to stay there.”

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