One of the most exciting names that has yet to enter the free agent frenzy is Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki.

The right-hander is expected to be posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines before December 15th, meaning that Sasaki will be part of the 2025 international free agent class when the period opens on January 15th. Teams will have 45 days to negotiate with Sasaki and any team that inks the pitcher will owe the Marines a release fee as well – the value depending on the money Sasaki earns.

Because Sasaki is under 25 years old, under the Collective Bargaining Agreement for players posted from Nippon Professional Baseball, the starting pitcher is held to the restrictions that come with the international bonus pool allotment as an international amateur free agent. In other words, while money could play a factor at the end of the day by a couple of millions, teams can only spend within that bonus pool – so there won’t be a situation we saw with Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter with the Dodgers who had enough service time to earn a lucrative deal. Teams cannot spend more than the bonus pool allotment – the MLB will void the contract if that occurs.

For comparison, Sasaki will fall under the same rules and guidelines that came with the Blue Jays signing Shun Yamaguchi a few years ago, with Toronto owing the Yomiuri Giants 20% of the overall contract as part of the release fee on top of Yamaguchi’s contract.

The Jays sign numerous international amateurs every year, highlighted by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Gabriel Moreno, and Orelvis Martinez over the years, although none of them were posted considering they were signed from Latin America. Yariel Rodríguez – who the Jays signed last winter – was not deemed an amateur free agent by Major League Baseball after pitching in the NPB and therefore netted a more lucrative five-year deal worth $32 million.

Considering every team can speak and potentially sign Sasaki when he becomes posted, in theory, there is a chance that the Blue Jays could sign the Japanese product when the dust settles. Because money isn’t the biggest driving factor out of the gate compared to other current negotiations ongoing with MLB free agents, the Jays would have to sell on other aspects of the organization to convince Sasaki to join the Blue Jays.

Things get more tricky if Sasaki is posted during the 2024 international period versus the 2025 period, as the Blue Jays have a whopping $12,200 to play with after all the wheeling and dealing they did for players like Franklin Rojas, Angel Guzman, and Andres Arias amongst others. The Dodgers currently lead the charge with ~$2.5 million left to spend while the Baltimore Orioles trail just behind at ~$2.14 million. Every other team sits almost $600K behind those two.

For Sasaki, it would make sense for him to wait until the 2025 international period is open and every team’s bonus pool comes refreshes and resets, ranging from $7.55 million to $5.146 million depending on the team (as some lose money based on free agent signings and compensation – the Jays did when they signed Chris Bassitt during the 2022/2023 offseason). Teams can trade bonus pool allotments, something the Jays did to sign Guerrero back in 2015, but overall, there is more money to be made for Sasaki if he waits til January 15th.

Now, just because teams like the Cincinnati Reds, Detroit Tigers, and Seattle Mariners have $7.55 million to work with come January does not mean that they have that amount of money remaining for signing a player like Sasaki.

Historically, teams have handshake deals and agreements in place with international amateur free agents heading into the opening period and some of the money from these bonus pools is already ‘spoken for’. Teams can obviously back out of these deals – and they have before – and some teams would likely have to consider that if they are serious about pursuing Sasaki.

As of right now, Blue Jays are currently ‘favoured’ to land shortstop Cristopher Polanco out of the Dominican Republic this signing period and could pivot back to Kennew Blanco as well, who they were set to sign earlier this year but backed out of the deal when his age was questioned. They have $6.261 million to play with this period but that amount will already be lower if they sign Polanco and more, with numerous other free agents from other countries usually signed as well but for lower amounts (however, players signed for $10,000 or less do not count towards the bonus pool).

I wouldn’t get your hopes up.

That’s not to say the door is completely closed but the Blue Jays will have to contend with 29 other teams when it comes to singing a high-profile arm for pennies on the dollar. The odds don’t seem in their favour if you are a gambler.

Fitment-wise, Sasaki makes sense in the Blue Jays rotation alongside the core group and his impressive stats in NPB have him slotting into potential ‘ace’ material.

Through 64 starts in the Pacific League with the Marines, Sasaki has authored a 2.10 ERA through 394 2/3 innings with a 0.894 WHIP and an 11.5 K/9. Sasaki impressed in the World Baseball Classic last winter, winning the tournament with Japan, and can run his fastball to triple digits while pairing that offering with a nasty splitter and a slider that also generates some significant swing and miss. There will be a learning curve as he takes his talents to the MLB but at 23 years old and six years under the current contract guidelines, there is lots of time to tinker with and adjust.

It appears right now that the race is mostly down to two teams – the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Padres have a connection through Darvish, as the two Japanese pitchers know each other from their time at the WBC. The Dodgers are intriguing because of their current success, connection with fellow WBC teammates Ohtani and Yamamoto, and given that the team seems poised to repeat as World Series champions given their ability to land talent and defer money – something the team could offer Sasaki further down the line. All signs currently point to the Dodgers but that could change when he is posted.

According to the Athletic’s Will Sammon, Sasaki is looking at factors outside of baseball (lifestyle and comfort) but is also looking into player development aspects as well.

While the Jays have the new Player Development Complex and a fancy renovated stadium, their track record for developing prospects has been hit and miss – especially with pitching. Where the Jays win points-wise is through the city, which earns praise from visiting teams and players for its diversity and atmosphere, and through the organization’s catering to the player and their families with the various amenities, which helped sway players like Gausman and Springer to join Toronto.

The front office can also pitch to Sasaki about representing an entire country and pitching for the lone Canadian squad but for a team with so many question marks given the Guerrero/Bichette extensions in flux, the losing record last year, and the Juan Soto sweepstakes, it seems like it is more unlikely he joins Toronto versus an organization like San Diego or Los Angeles.

With all of this combined, it seems more than likely that the Blue Jays will need to pivot when Sasaki signs on the West Coast somewhere come January.