Now that the Blue Jays have missed out on Juan Soto, Ross Atkins and the front office team are going to have to pivot in a hurry in order to field a team that will be considered a legitimate contender in 2025.
Thankfully Soto didn&#8217;t represent the Blue Jays&#8217; only way to improve, and while it&#8217;s a bummer to miss out on what should be a future Hall of Famer, there&#8217;s also an argument that spending $765 million on one player over 15 years might not have been the best use of resources anyway. As with most things, time will tell, but for the Blue Jays there is no time to think about what failed to come to fruition, and instead, they need to focus on what can still be done to make next year&#8217;s season a more successful one than the disaster of 2024.
You would be hard-pressed to find anyone that would argue against the need for the Jays to improve their offence, and that will need to be done one way or another. However, another way that Atkins could raise the floor and ceiling of next year&#8217;s team would be to sign a premium starting pitcher, and fortunately, there are a handful that are available in this year&#8217;s free agent class. I would argue that three targets stand out in particular, and according to multiple reports, it would seem that the Blue Jays agree with me that it&#8217;s worth at least having conversations with <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burneco01.shtml">Corbin Burnes</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/friedma01.shtml">Max Fried,</a> and Roki Sasaki.
The latter is a unique case because he&#8217;ll be coming to the big leagues by way of the Japanese posting system after spending four seasons in the Nippon Professional Baseball league as one of its best pitchers. Still just 23 years old, Sasaki would benefit greatly by waiting two more years before being posted for MLB teams to bid on, but as <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/roki-sasaki-faq">things stand</a> teams won&#8217;t be able to bid more than what their international bonus pool money will allow. That means there is little the Blue Jays can do in terms of using any financial muscle, and will have to make their pitch to him just like any other team. It&#8217;s not out of the realm of possibility that he lands in Toronto, but at this stage, the Jays are not one of the rumoured frontrunners, for whatever that&#8217;s worth.
It&#8217;s a different scenario when it comes to Burnes and Fried, and it sounds like the Blue Jays have already been in touch with both camps even before Soto announced that <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/juan-soto-signs-a-15-year-deal-with-the-mets">he&#8217;s heading to Queens to join the Mets</a>. The MLB Network&#8217;s Jon Morosi reported that the <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/report-blue-jays-and-free-agent-right-hander-corbin-burnes-have-in-person-meeting">Jays met with Burnes</a> last week, and they&#8217;ve been <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/news-and-notes-the-blue-jays-are-asking-about-max-fried-according-to-sportsnets-ben-nicholson-smith">tied to Fried as a potential suitor for some time now</a>. Naturally, they&#8217;ll have to compete with plenty of other teams looking for a new ace to head their rotation, and the choice for the Blue Jays may come down to if there is an opportunity to sign either player.
However, money usually talks, and they could try to force the issue with an aggressive bid. However, if this was truly a choice for the Blue Jays, which All-Star arm should they prefer?
The Case for Corbin Burnes
The 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner has been one of the very best starting pitchers in baseball since he debuted in 2018. Still just 30 years old, Burnes sports a career record of 60-36 with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.063 WHIP across 199 big league appearances, covering 903.2 innings pitched. He has one Cy Young award on his mantle already, and he&#8217;s finished 8th or higher four other times, including last year when he finished 5th in AL voting as the ace of the Baltimore Orioles.
Speaking of the Orioles, as if signing one of the best starting pitchers in the game wasn&#8217;t incentive enough, taking that kind of weapon away from a division rival would be an added bonus. That&#8217;s just a cherry on the top when it comes to a premium arm like Burnes though, who is arguably the second-best free agent from this year&#8217;s class behind Soto.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
First strikeout of the year goes to Corbin Burnes.
 <a href="https://t.co/pFlga72NTI">pic.twitter.com/pFlga72NTI</a>
&mdash; Ben Verlander (@BenVerlander) <a href="https://twitter.com/BenVerlander/status/1773429675047686378?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 28, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
When you add in the fact that the Jays face losing Chris Bassitt after the season, Kevin Gausman after the 2026 campaign, and could potentially see Jose Berrios <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/how-jose-berrios-contract-could-impact-the-blue-jays-free-agency-decisions">opt out at the same time</a> that Gausman departs, adding a certified veteran ace like Burnes would be a big win.
The Case for Max Fried
The other ace-level option on this year&#8217;s free agent market is Max Fried, who has spent the first eight years of his career with the Atlanta Braves. Fried does not have a Cy Young award in his trophy case, but he&#8217;s twice finished in the top five, and ended up as high as 2nd during the 2022 season that saw him go 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA over 30 starts.
For his career, Fried is 73-36 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.164 WHIP across 168 games and 881 1/3 innings pitched. He&#8217;s also a 2x All-Star and a 3x Gold Glove winner, adding some defence to his contributions on the field. In a lot of ways he&#8217;s flown under the radar a bit in Atlanta with the likes of Spencer Strider stealing the headlines with his gaudy strikeout totals, but he&#8217;s been a high-quality arm for a long time.
It also doesn&#8217;t hurt that he throws from the left side, something that&#8217;s currently missing from the Blue Jays&#8217; rotation, and a variable worth considering in the AL East especially when playing a team like the Red Sox whose roster includes the likes of Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Tristan Casas and more. The same goes for the Orioles with the likes of Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rustchman (a switch-hitter), Cedric Mullins, and others.
On top of what he can do on the mound, I believe that Fried will come at a more reasonable price than the average top-tier pitching talent. He&#8217;ll be 31 next year so he should have plenty of prime left in that arm of his, and his skill set should age well as he progresses deeper into his career, as he&#8217;s not as reliant on strikeouts and the velocity game in general as some of his peers. <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/2024-25-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html">MLBTradeRumors predicted a 6-year, $156 million pact for the former Brave</a>, but don&#8217;t be surprised if the Blue Jays and/or other clubs are willing to go to a 7th year on the deal or past the $156 million mark
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Max Fried sets a new career high with his 12th strikeout of the night. <a href="https://t.co/egzhHtdXkI">pic.twitter.com/egzhHtdXkI</a>
&mdash; MLB (@MLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1798155974265782426?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 5, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
The Case Against Corbin Burnes
While there are plenty of good reasons to want the Blue Jays to pursue Corbin Burnes, there are some arguments against the idea that are worth considering as well.
First of all, it&#8217;s never going to be cheap pursuing the top of the class, and Burnes will be no exception. The staff at <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/2024-25-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html">MLB Trade Rumors has predicted seven years and $200 million for the right-hander</a>, which honestly feels a bit light to me, and it wouldn&#8217;t surprise me to see the AAV go well above 30 million per year. As an easy example, <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/13294/gerrit-cole">Gerrit Cole is making $36 million per season</a> with the Yankees into his mid-late 30s, and Burnes&#8217; camp is surely going to point that out to potential suitors. <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10145779-projecting-the-price-tags-for-top-mlb-free-agent-of-2024-2025-class">For comparison sake, Bleacher Report predicted 7 years and 255 million</a>, which seems more in the ballpark to me at this point. However it shakes down, it&#8217;s going to cost his next team a lot of money, and probably a commitment of at least seven years.
On top of the cost, there are some concerning trends when you take a closer look at Burnes&#8217; strikeout numbers. In 2021 he was striking opposing players out at a rate of 12.6/9, and that figure dropped to 10.8 in 2022, to 9.3 in 2023, and finally 8.4 last season. For one of the game&#8217;s best strikeout artists, that&#8217;s a troubling sign. That said, he made some adjustments last season, including using an effective sweeper regularly, and put up some very strong numbers that line up with his career norms.
Has Burnes made an adjustment that will help him stay among the game&#8217;s elite starters going forward, or is this a sign of things to come for the Bakersfield native? Time will tell.
The Case Against Max Fried
While Fried ended up with solid numbers by the end of last season, there was a point in June that he and his agents were likely sweating a bit after he had some forearm inflammation. Fortunately, that was a short-lived problem and he still ended up making 29 starts.
I&#8217;ll admit that I&#8217;m not concerned about Fried&#8217;s health going forward, but I also understand if that&#8217;s a bit of a concern for any prospective teams in the future. He was only able to make 14 starts in 2023, and he has had a handful of different concerns over the years. However, with a closer look, I don&#8217;t believe that anyone <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/braves/analysis/no-max-fried-isnt-injury-prone#:~:text=Most%20of%20what%20Fried's%20dealt,concussion%20in%20August%20of%202022.">should be referring to him as &#8220;injury prone&#8221;</a>, but to each their own.
Moving beyond the potential health concerns, I understand if some folks don&#8217;t truly see Fried as a 1A type of ace, even if his numbers are very strong. He&#8217;s not a big strikeout guy, averaging just 8.8 K/9 for his career, and the ability to rack up K&#8217;s has become more and more important for the game&#8217;s elite hitters. In that way, Fried is a bit of a different breed than someone like Burnes. Still, there is tremendous value in his left arm, and despite hitting the IL nine times in his career, the bulk of those issues seem more isolated than they do recurring.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
&quot;[Max] Fried and [Corbin] Burnes are probably the next names to watch&#8230; but I&#39;m not going to be surprised at all if the Blue Jays leave here without having made a major move.&quot;<a href="https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@bnicholsonsmith</a> on Toronto&#39;s offseason outlook with <a href="https://twitter.com/JDBunkis?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JDBunkis</a>. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/TOTHECORE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#TOTHECORE</a>
🎧 <a href="https://t.co/ET2culOpbD">https://t.co/ET2culOpbD</a> <a href="https://t.co/ASMWHPzLUU">pic.twitter.com/ASMWHPzLUU</a>
&mdash; Sportsnet 590 The FAN (@FAN590) <a href="https://twitter.com/FAN590/status/1866187403548921937?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 9, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Final Verdict
The truth is, the Blue Jays will be a better team if they&#8217;re able to land either player, and I will celebrate if they add an ace-calibre talent to the rotation.
However, if I had to choose one over the other, I would go with Fried for a few simple reasons. I believe his game will age more effectively over the long term, which is important when signing a pitcher on the wrong side of 30, and the nominal savings by choosing him over Burnes could go a long way to improving the bullpen and the lineup as well, two areas that need a boost if the Blue Jays are going to realistically compete again in 2024.
Either way, we may know the outcome of this chase sooner than later, and hopefully the Blue Jays aren&#8217;t left holding the bag once again.

Now that the Blue Jays have missed out on Juan Soto, Ross Atkins and the front office team are going to have to pivot in a hurry in order to field a team that will be considered a legitimate contender in 2025.

Thankfully Soto didn't represent the Blue Jays' only way to improve, and while it's a bummer to miss out on what should be a future Hall of Famer, there's also an argument that spending $765 million on one player over 15 years might not have been the best use of resources anyway. As with most things, time will tell, but for the Blue Jays there is no time to think about what failed to come to fruition, and instead, they need to focus on what can still be done to make next year's season a more successful one than the disaster of 2024.

You would be hard-pressed to find anyone that would argue against the need for the Jays to improve their offence, and that will need to be done one way or another. However, another way that Atkins could raise the floor and ceiling of next year's team would be to sign a premium starting pitcher, and fortunately, there are a handful that are available in this year's free agent class. I would argue that three targets stand out in particular, and according to multiple reports, it would seem that the Blue Jays agree with me that it's worth at least having conversations with <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burneco01.shtml">Corbin Burnes</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/friedma01.shtml">Max Fried,</a> and Roki Sasaki.

The latter is a unique case because he'll be coming to the big leagues by way of the Japanese posting system after spending four seasons in the Nippon Professional Baseball league as one of its best pitchers. Still just 23 years old, Sasaki would benefit greatly by waiting two more years before being posted for MLB teams to bid on, but as <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/roki-sasaki-faq">things stand</a> teams won't be able to bid more than what their international bonus pool money will allow. That means there is little the Blue Jays can do in terms of using any financial muscle, and will have to make their pitch to him just like any other team. It's not out of the realm of possibility that he lands in Toronto, but at this stage, the Jays are not one of the rumoured frontrunners, for whatever that's worth.

It's a different scenario when it comes to Burnes and Fried, and it sounds like the Blue Jays have already been in touch with both camps even before Soto announced that <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/juan-soto-signs-a-15-year-deal-with-the-mets">he's heading to Queens to join the Mets</a>. The MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported that the <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/report-blue-jays-and-free-agent-right-hander-corbin-burnes-have-in-person-meeting">Jays met with Burnes</a> last week, and they've been <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/news-and-notes-the-blue-jays-are-asking-about-max-fried-according-to-sportsnets-ben-nicholson-smith">tied to Fried as a potential suitor for some time now</a>. Naturally, they'll have to compete with plenty of other teams looking for a new ace to head their rotation, and the choice for the Blue Jays may come down to if there is an opportunity to sign either player.

However, money usually talks, and they could try to force the issue with an aggressive bid. However, if this was truly a choice for the Blue Jays, which All-Star arm should they prefer?

The Case for Corbin Burnes

The 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner has been one of the very best starting pitchers in baseball since he debuted in 2018. Still just 30 years old, Burnes sports a career record of 60-36 with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.063 WHIP across 199 big league appearances, covering 903.2 innings pitched. He has one Cy Young award on his mantle already, and he's finished 8th or higher four other times, including last year when he finished 5th in AL voting as the ace of the Baltimore Orioles.

Speaking of the Orioles, as if signing one of the best starting pitchers in the game wasn't incentive enough, taking that kind of weapon away from a division rival would be an added bonus. That's just a cherry on the top when it comes to a premium arm like Burnes though, who is arguably the second-best free agent from this year's class behind Soto.

https://twitter.com/BenVerlander/status/1773429675047686378

When you add in the fact that the Jays face losing Chris Bassitt after the season, Kevin Gausman after the 2026 campaign, and could potentially see Jose Berrios <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/how-jose-berrios-contract-could-impact-the-blue-jays-free-agency-decisions">opt out at the same time</a> that Gausman departs, adding a certified veteran ace like Burnes would be a big win.

The Case for Max Fried

The other ace-level option on this year's free agent market is Max Fried, who has spent the first eight years of his career with the Atlanta Braves. Fried does not have a Cy Young award in his trophy case, but he's twice finished in the top five, and ended up as high as 2nd during the 2022 season that saw him go 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA over 30 starts.

For his career, Fried is 73-36 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.164 WHIP across 168 games and 881 1/3 innings pitched. He's also a 2x All-Star and a 3x Gold Glove winner, adding some defence to his contributions on the field. In a lot of ways he's flown under the radar a bit in Atlanta with the likes of Spencer Strider stealing the headlines with his gaudy strikeout totals, but he's been a high-quality arm for a long time.

It also doesn't hurt that he throws from the left side, something that's currently missing from the Blue Jays' rotation, and a variable worth considering in the AL East especially when playing a team like the Red Sox whose roster includes the likes of Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Tristan Casas and more. The same goes for the Orioles with the likes of Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rustchman (a switch-hitter), Cedric Mullins, and others.

On top of what he can do on the mound, I believe that Fried will come at a more reasonable price than the average top-tier pitching talent. He'll be 31 next year so he should have plenty of prime left in that arm of his, and his skill set should age well as he progresses deeper into his career, as he's not as reliant on strikeouts and the velocity game in general as some of his peers. <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/2024-25-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html">MLBTradeRumors predicted a 6-year, $156 million pact for the former Brave</a>, but don't be surprised if the Blue Jays and/or other clubs are willing to go to a 7th year on the deal or past the $156 million mark

https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1798155974265782426

The Case Against Corbin Burnes

While there are plenty of good reasons to want the Blue Jays to pursue Corbin Burnes, there are some arguments against the idea that are worth considering as well.

First of all, it's never going to be cheap pursuing the top of the class, and Burnes will be no exception. The staff at <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/2024-25-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html">MLB Trade Rumors has predicted seven years and $200 million for the right-hander</a>, which honestly feels a bit light to me, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the AAV go well above 30 million per year. As an easy example, <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/13294/gerrit-cole">Gerrit Cole is making $36 million per season</a> with the Yankees into his mid-late 30s, and Burnes' camp is surely going to point that out to potential suitors. <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10145779-projecting-the-price-tags-for-top-mlb-free-agent-of-2024-2025-class">For comparison sake, Bleacher Report predicted 7 years and 255 million</a>, which seems more in the ballpark to me at this point. However it shakes down, it's going to cost his next team a lot of money, and probably a commitment of at least seven years.

On top of the cost, there are some concerning trends when you take a closer look at Burnes' strikeout numbers. In 2021 he was striking opposing players out at a rate of 12.6/9, and that figure dropped to 10.8 in 2022, to 9.3 in 2023, and finally 8.4 last season. For one of the game's best strikeout artists, that's a troubling sign. That said, he made some adjustments last season, including using an effective sweeper regularly, and put up some very strong numbers that line up with his career norms.

Has Burnes made an adjustment that will help him stay among the game's elite starters going forward, or is this a sign of things to come for the Bakersfield native? Time will tell.

The Case Against Max Fried

While Fried ended up with solid numbers by the end of last season, there was a point in June that he and his agents were likely sweating a bit after he had some forearm inflammation. Fortunately, that was a short-lived problem and he still ended up making 29 starts.

I'll admit that I'm not concerned about Fried's health going forward, but I also understand if that's a bit of a concern for any prospective teams in the future. He was only able to make 14 starts in 2023, and he has had a handful of different concerns over the years. However, with a closer look, I don't believe that anyone <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/braves/analysis/no-max-fried-isnt-injury-prone#:~:text=Most%20of%20what%20Fried's%20dealt,concussion%20in%20August%20of%202022.">should be referring to him as "injury prone"</a>, but to each their own.

Moving beyond the potential health concerns, I understand if some folks don't truly see Fried as a 1A type of ace, even if his numbers are very strong. He's not a big strikeout guy, averaging just 8.8 K/9 for his career, and the ability to rack up K's has become more and more important for the game's elite hitters. In that way, Fried is a bit of a different breed than someone like Burnes. Still, there is tremendous value in his left arm, and despite hitting the IL nine times in his career, the bulk of those issues seem more isolated than they do recurring.

https://twitter.com/FAN590/status/1866187403548921937

Final Verdict

The truth is, the Blue Jays will be a better team if they're able to land either player, and I will celebrate if they add an ace-calibre talent to the rotation.

However, if I had to choose one over the other, I would go with Fried for a few simple reasons. I believe his game will age more effectively over the long term, which is important when signing a pitcher on the wrong side of 30, and the nominal savings by choosing him over Burnes could go a long way to improving the bullpen and the lineup as well, two areas that need a boost if the Blue Jays are going to realistically compete again in 2024.

Either way, we may know the outcome of this chase sooner than later, and hopefully the Blue Jays aren't left holding the bag once again.

Max Fried vs. Corbin Burnes- Who makes more sense for the Blue Jays?

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