Entering this year’s camp, the Toronto Blue Jays were an injury away from facing a rather uncomfortable dilemma regarding their starting rotation for the 2025 season. And it appears that time is already upon them, with Opening Day just over a week away.
Concerns have begun to re-emerge around the organization’s starting pitching depth — or lack thereof — amidst a recent injury to veteran right-hander Max Scherzer, who was scratched from last Thursday’s start versus the Baltimore Orioles due to right thumb soreness. The future Hall-of-Famer was sent for an MRI earlier this week and the results didn’t reveal any structural damage, providing a major sigh of relief for all involved.
However, Scherzer’s injury flared up again during Monday’s simulated game against minor-league hitters at the player development complex in Dunedin, Fla., causing him discomfort while gripping each pitch — but only when his pitch count approaches the 50-pitch mark. The larger issue is that he’s dealt with this ailment since 2023, with it primarily impacting his recovery.
The 40-year-old opened last season on the injured list after soreness from his right thumb transitioned into nerve pain travelling up his tricep. But he said his current injury has yet to cause any additional problems thus far. For now, the Blue Jays are taking it day-to-day with the eight-time All-Star.
Toronto’s brass is applying extra caution with Scherzer’s injury scare, and rightly so, considering he only made nine starts a season ago due to multiple injuries. Still, this recent ailment has left his spring build-up in a difficult position amidst the final week of spring training. The fact that he’s only been stretched out to around 50 pitches this late into camp, paired with questions surrounding his health status, has cast a dark cloud over his availability for the start of this season.
It remains unclear if Scherzer will ultimately require a season-opening IL stint. If he does, though, it’d be a significant blow for the Blue Jays pitching staff on multiple fronts.
Firstly, his absence would immediately test the club’s depth right out of the gate, which already doesn’t possess a strong foundation. Such an outcome would also be incredibly disappointing based on how well he’s performed across three spring starts, punching out 14 batters in nine innings while allowing just two runs on three hits.
As unfortunate as this development is, there was always a strong possibility of the Blue Jays ending up in this position after signing Scherzer to a one-year, $15.5-million contract over the off-season. It’s simply the reality of acquiring someone who’s logged as many miles as he has entering his 18th major league season.
Fortifying the starting rotation was near the top of the franchise’s to-do list this past winter, a close second to upgrading an offence that badly needed an insertion of power. Management could’ve taken the safe route, sticking to its risk-averse track record. But they instead took a gamble on one of the most decorated hurlers of his generation, betting on his ability to bounce back from an injury-plagued ’24 season.
In a vacuum, signing Scherzer — a two-win pitcher per fWAR in ’23 — was the right move for Toronto. Even at this stage of his future Hall-of-Fame career, one of the sport’s most fiery competitors still has a bit of fuel left in the tank to compete at a high level on a team hoping to return to the playoffs this season. Not to mention the near-two-decades worth of experience he’s brought to this staff. But, adding him to an already veteran rotation with few viable options behind its starting five has placed immense focus on keeping that group healthy.
And so far, that plan isn’t off to a great start.
So, what’s the plan if Scherzer isn’t ready when spring training wraps next week? The immediate solution will likely include having Yariel Rodríguez — who’s been stretched out this spring for situations exactly like this — become the club’s fifth starter. Doing so, however, would weaken the bullpen, particularly at the back end, with Erik Swanson (forearm) headed to the IL.
There’s also the tiny but significant detail of Rodríguez’s profile being better suited for relief outings rather than starter duties. While he displayed a few promising glimpses last season, striking out nearly a quarter of his 368 batters faced in 21 starts, issues surrounding his command (10.9 per cent walk rate, 1.14 HR/9) resulted in a troubling 4.47 ERA during his first season in North America.
The deeper issue with Scherzer potentially missing time is the trickle-down effect it could have on the Blue Jays’ pitching depth. With Rodríguez stepping in as his injury replacement, Jake Bloss would be next in line to join the fold if another injury arose. After him? Well, that’s where it becomes even murkier.
Injuries to pitching prospects Ricky Tiedemann (Tommy John surgery), Adam Macko (torn meniscus) and Chad Dallas (Tommy John surgery) have left Toronto’s triple-A depth extremely thin, thus necessitating the minor-league signings of Eric Lauer and Adam Kloffenstein prior to camp. The latter of those two has been delayed by shoulder fatigue, though.
Help will be on its way down the road, with Alek Manoah — who threw his first post-surgery side session last week — expected to return around the All-Star break, with Macko likely facing a similar timeline. In the short term, however, Bloss and Lauer are likely the club’s lone viable options in Buffalo. But in a pinch, they could also probably use Ryan Yarbrough as their break-in-case-of-emergency starter, albeit further depleting the bullpen.
Surviving injuries is a part of the game these days, and teams who successfully develop layers upon layers of pitching depth have a much higher likelihood of achieving that feat. The Blue Jays, of course, are not among them. They’ve had to keep their heads above water without being able to rely on fresh, talented arms from triple-A.
To this point, the franchise’s inability to consistently develop young starting pitchers hasn’t ballooned into a crisis, at least not yet. That’s because they had Ross Stripling to rescue them in 2022, Hyun Jin Ryu in ’23, and Bowden Francis last year. But perhaps they won’t be as fortunate this season — both in terms of keeping most of their starters healthy and featuring a surprise success story.
The Blue Jays need more of those to rise to the surface in ’25, as Francis did a season ago. And he did so despite not being a homegrown talent. The 28-year-old was originally a seventh-round selection by the Milwaukee Brewers in ’17 before coming over via trade during the ’21 season.
Since most of the franchise’s notable homegrown starting pitchers are either injured or no longer with the organization, this front office’s horrendous drafting and developing track record is again under the microscope. Thus, it’s worth remembering that Manoah is the lone starter originally drafted by this team to make a meaningful contribution within the current competitive window, which, for argument’s sake, let’s say began in ’21.
In that time, only three other homegrown pitchers have made at least one start for the Blue Jays — T.J. Zeuch, Max Castillo and Nate Pearson (one career start, albeit as an opener), none of whom are still employed by this franchise.
Those deficiencies have Toronto playing from behind, particularly within the AL East. Starting with the reigning division-champion New York Yankees, who’ve already lost ace Gerrit Cole (Tommy John surgery) for the year and will begin this season without Luis Gil, last season’s AL Rookie of the Year, and veteran JT Brubaker.
The Bronx Bombers have stocked their rotation with free-agent signings like Max Fried, Carlos Rodón and Marcus Stroman, just as the Blue Jays have. But, they also plan to backfill their starting staff with a pair of homegrown starters in Clarke Schmidt and Will Warren.
As for the Boston Red Sox, they’ve also been gutted by pitching injuries this spring, with Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford slated to miss Opening Day, among others. Fortunately, their starting five still consists of former first-rounder Tanner Houck, as well as off-season acquisitions Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. Rounding out that group will likely include Quinn Priester and Richard Fitts, a pair of externally acquired pitching success stories developed through their system.
Between losing Corbin Burnes in free agency and being without Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells, Trevor Rogers and top pitching prospect Chayce McDermott, the Baltimore Orioles are, too, facing an uphill battle with its starting rotation. While many questions exist at the top, Dean Kremer and Cade Povich — both products of successful development — will likely play key roles in keeping the O’s afloat early on.
Both the Red Sox and Orioles are also blessed with featuring two of the premier farm systems in baseball — resources that will help keep them competitive if any additional injuries occur, whether through backfilling themselves or serving as crucial trade chips.
The Tampa Bay Rays are in the opposite boat as their AL East rivals. Rather than experiencing a rash of pitching injuries this spring, they’ve welcomed back several key arms who missed significant time last season, including ace Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen. And with the pitching factory they’ve developed, more impact arms will soon be on the way.
Toronto’s system, on the other hand, isn’t equipped to overcome similar setbacks if the organization’s good health fortune falls apart this season. So, yet again, the onus will fall on the training staff to repeat as this team’s true MVPs as they stride to maintain the health of the rotation’s core three — Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt.
They’ve been relatively successful in years past, at least outside of a few hiccups. But their newest challenge will include managing Scherzer’s workload to maximize his availability as much as possible — a daunting obstacle that’ll likely invoke using creative strategies to provide extra recovery time, including the possibility of a six-man rotation and spot starts.