MLB betting preview (April 1): Nationals vs. Blue Jays predictions
Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
By Greg Warren
Apr 1, 2025, 12:03 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will be looking for a third-straight win when they host the Washington Nationals in the second game of a three-game series at Rogers Centre on Tuesday night.
Toronto claimed the series opener on Monday by a score of 5-2 thanks to the hot bat of Andrés Giménez and some solid pitching from Bowden Francis, who took a no-hit bid into the sixth inning.
With the loss, the Nationals fell to 1-3 on the new season after dropping two of three games to the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Tuesday’s clash between the Nationals and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365.
Nationals vs. Blue Jays odds
Nationals moneyline odds | +140 |
Blue Jays moneyline odds | -165 |
Runline odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+125), Nationals +1.5 (-150) |
Game total | Over 8.5 runs (-110), Under 8.5 (-110) |
Date/Time | April 1, 7:07 p.m. ET |
About the Nationals (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 o/u)
It’s obviously very early in the season, but the struggles of Washington’s bullpen are extremely concerning. Nationals relievers have been torched for 17 earned runs over 13 2/3 innings of work while walking 16 batters. They’ve also given up four home runs while allowing the opposition to hit a lofty .345 against them. The unit’s 11.20 ERA ranks second last in baseball behind the Milwaukee Brewers (12.32).
Offensively, the Nationals have relied on eight long balls to do the bulk of their damage. Six different players have already gone deep through four games, with Keibert Ruiz and Nathaniel Lowe contributing two homers apiece. The team’s .745 OPS ranks 14th in baseball, and its five steals already rank sixth in the majors.
About the Blue Jays (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 o/u)
The bullpen was Toronto’s Achilles’ heel last season, and it’s been an issue again this year through five games. Toronto relievers have allowed 13 earned runs and four homers over 19 innings (6.16 ERA), with opponents hitting .247 collectively off them. However, Jeff Hoffman has looked awesome in a small sample size of two innings, and Yimi García has been nearly flawless in his three appearances. Chad Green, another important high-leverage arm for the Blue Jays, has struggled out of the gate, coughing up a pair of homers over his two appearances.
Offensively, the Blue Jays are being carried by Giménez, who reached base four times on Monday. He homered in the second inning to bring his total to three this season, and he boasts a 1.399 OPS through five games. The three-time Gold Glover is highly coveted for his elite defence, so his early offensive breakout is a welcomed surprise for the Blue Jays.
Probable starting pitchers
Washington: RHP Trevor Williams (2024 stats: 6-1, 2.03 ERA, 7.97 K/9)
Williams spent the bulk of last season on the injured list with a right flexor muscle strain, but he was highly effective in the 13 starts he did make, going 6-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. More importantly, the Nationals went 10-3 in his outings last year, as the right-hander delivered at least five innings of work while not allowing more than three earned runs in 12 of those starts. He relies on five pitches for success, but his fastball, which only averages around 89 mph, ranked in the 93rd percentile in run value last season due to his elite command of the pitch, according to Baseball Savant.
Toronto: RHP José Berríos (0-1, 10.80 ERA, 9.00 K/9)
Berríos was smacked around by the Orioles in the season opener for six runs on nine hits over five innings. He gave up three long balls in the process, which is a worrisome trend after he surrendered a career-high 31 homers last season. Additionally, Berríos now has an ugly 9.53 ERA and 2.03 WHIP in three Opening Day starts for the Blue Jays. Despite his early struggles, the right-hander is coming off a solid 2024 campaign in which he compiled 16 wins and a 3.60 ERA over 32 starts.
Notable injuries
Right-hander Mike Soroka left Monday’s start against the Blue Jays due to biceps cramps, but otherwise, the Nationals don’t have any other significant new injuries to report.
As for the Blue Jays, outfielder Daulton Varsho (shoulder) and pitchers Ryan Burr (shoulder), Max Scherzer (lat) and Erik Swanson (forearm) are all on the injured list.
Weather
It’s going to be cold in Toronto this evening, so the retractable dome at Rogers Centre will very likely be closed.
Nationals vs. Blue Jays betting trends
- The over is 7-2 in the past nine meetings.
- The Blue Jays have only covered the runline in 24 of their past 74 games at home.
Nationals vs. Blue Jays player prop trends
- Giménez has three home runs in five games for Toronto. He only hit nine in 152 games with Cleveland last year. He’s around +900 to go deep again. Giménez also takes a nine-game hitting streak into action Tuesday, dating back to last season.
- Ruiz has hit safely in eight straight games dating back to last season and is around -220 to extend that streak.
- Dylan Crews is really struggling for the Nationals, going hitless in 15 at-bats to begin the season. He’s around +130 to record under 0.5 hits.
Nationals vs. Blue Jays best bet
- Berríos over 1.5 earned runs allowed: -166 (best odds @ Betway). Berrios really struggled with his control in his initial outing against Baltimore, allowing the Orioles to barrel him up 23.5% of the time with a 47.1% hard-hit rate. He’ll get to face a much weaker Nationals lineup on Tuesday, but his tendency to give up the long ball is especially concerning heading into this start. Berrios shouldn’t implode again in this spot, but we’ll bet that he’s still not entirely sharp and coughs up a couple of early runs. He allowed two earned runs or more in 20 of his 32 starts (63%) last season, so this line is priced about right with 62.4% implied odds.