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MLB betting preview (April 11): Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions
Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday (7) steals second base against Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Andres Gimenez (0) during the second inning at Rogers Centre.
Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
Greg Warren
Apr 11, 2025, 10:53 EDTUpdated: Apr 11, 2025, 10:55 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will begin a three-game series with the Baltimore Orioles on Friday night at Camden Yards in the final leg of their 10-game road trip.
Toronto narrowly missed out on completing a four-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox earlier this week, falling 4-3 in extra innings on Thursday in a game that had some controversial balls and strikes calls go against them.
Baltimore, meanwhile, is coming off a disappointing 2-4 road trip that had stops in Arizona and Kansas City. The Orioles were shut out 9-0 by Arizona on Wednesday, but they’ll be fresh after having a day off on Thursday before this series with Toronto.
Let’s take a look at the game odds for Friday’s series opener between the Blue Jays and Orioles courtesy of bet365.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles odds

Blue Jays moneyline odds
-105
Orioles moneyline odds
-115
Runline odds
Orioles -1.5 (+175), Blue Jays +1.5 (-210)
Total
Over 8 runs (-115), Under 8 (-105)
Date/Time
April 11, 7:05 p.m. ET

About the Blue Jays (8-6 SU, 11-3 ATS, 3-11 o/u)

Toronto’s starting pitchers have been on a roll to start the season, posting a combined 2.48 ERA (second in the majors) while holding the opposition to a .206 batting average. Chris Bassitt was great on Thursday, holding Boston to one run over 5 2/3 innings while striking out five before turning things over to the bullpen. Toronto used four pitchers in relief, but none of them threw more than 23 pitches, so the bullpen is relatively fresh heading into this series with Baltimore.
George Springer collected another hit and an RBI on Thursday to continue his hot start. The veteran outfielder leads the team in batting average (.429), RBIs (10), on-base percentage (.479), and hits (18).

About the Orioles (5-8 SU, 5-8 ATS, 7-5-1 o/u)

Baltimore has had a miserable start to the season, going 0-3-1 in its first four series. However, the Orioles have played just three home games to date, so they’ll try to gain some momentum during this homestand that will span nine games.
Pitching was a concern heading into the season after the Orioles lost ace Corbin Burnes to free agency and Grayson Rodriguez to the injured list. Orioles pitchers have a combined 4.54 ERA through the first 13 games, which ranks 25th in baseball. And their starting pitchers own a 5.37 ERA, which ranks as the third highest in the majors behind the Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals.
The Orioles rank in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories, including runs per game (4.2, 15th) and OPS (.682, 17th).

Probable starting pitchers

Toronto: RHP Bowden Francis (1-1, 3.18 ERA, 7.94 K/9)
Francis has picked up right where he left off last year, putting together two solid outings out of the gate. The right-hander held the New York Mets to two runs over 5 1/3 innings while striking out six the last time he took the bump, and his first start of the season versus Washington was equally impressive, holding the Nationals to two runs over six innings of work. He did struggle a bit in three appearances against Baltimore last year, coughing up nine earned runs and five homers to the O’s across 14 innings.
Baltimore: RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (1-1, 2.89 ERA, 4.82 K/9)
Sugano, an MLB rookie despite being 35 years old, has been one of the few Baltimore pitchers to post solid results in 2025.
He held the Kansas City Royals to one run on five hits over 5 1/3 innings during his last outing and Toronto to two runs over four innings in his MLB debut on March 30. The right-hander does a really good job of mixing up all six of his pitches in an attempt to keep hitters off balance, as he doesn’t throw one particular pitch any more than 20% of the time, according to Baseball Savant.

Notable injuries

Outfielder Daulton Varsho (shoulder) and pitchers Ryan Burr (shoulder), Erik Swanson (forearm), and Max Scherzer (thumb) are all on the injured list for the Blue Jays.
Pitchers Zack Eflin (lat), Albert Suarez (shoulder), Grayson Rodriguez (elbow), Kyle Bradish (elbow), Trevor Rogers (knee), and Andrew Kittredge (knee) are all on the injured list. Outfielder Colton Cowser (thumb) is also on the IL, and infielder Jordan Westburg (upper body) is considered day-to-day.

Weather

There’s a serious threat of this game being delayed or postponed due to rain. Forecasts are projecting a 100% chance of precipitation in Baltimore tonight, with 10-15mm of rain expected throughout the evening hours. Winds will be blowing in from centre field at 11 mph.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays betting trends

  • These teams split four games at the Rogers Centre to open the season in March, with the over cashing in three of those contests.
  • The over is 7-3 in the past 10 meetings.
  • The under is 11-0 in Toronto’s last 11 games.
  • The under is 3-0-1 in Baltimore’s last four games.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays player prop trends

  • Francis has stayed under his line of 5.5 hits allowed in one of his two starts this season and in 17 of his last 20 appearances dating back to last season. He’s around -160 to allow under 5.5 hits on Friday.
  • Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman is carrying a six-game hitting streak into action on Friday, and he’s been killing the Blue Jays recently, launching two home runs against them during their earlier series this season. Rutschman also posted a 1.026 OPS with five homers and nine RBIs in 43 at-bats against Toronto last season.
  • Springer has been a great bet in the hits + runs + RBIs betting market, surpassing his total of 1.5 in nine of 13 games (69%) this season. He’s around -105 to surpass that number.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays Predictions

  • The 100% certainty of significant rainfall makes this contest very unpredictable, and there’s a big risk of rain delays/postponement. Place your wagers elsewhere on the diamond Friday night, or take a look at the Masters or NHL action.

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