MLB betting preview (April 21): Blue Jays vs. Astros predictions

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (34) throws a pitch against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Rogers Centre.

Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Apr 21, 2025, 11:07 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will begin a three-game series with the Houston Astros on Monday evening at Daikin Park.

Toronto closed out a six-game homestand Sunday with an 8-3 loss to the Seattle Mariners, who took two of three games from the Blue Jays over the weekend. Toronto went 3-3 on the homestand and will now embark on a short six-game road trip that will also include a stop in The Bronx later this week.

Houston took two of three games from the San Diego Padres on the weekend but fell Sunday night by a score of 3-2. The Astros are 5-5 in their last 10 games, and they’ve yet to put together a longer winning streak than two games to this point.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Monday’s series opener between the Blue Jays and Astros, courtesy of bet365.

Blue Jays vs. Astros odds

Blue Jays moneyline odds	+115
Astros moneyline odds	-135
Runline odds	Astros -1.5 (+160), Blue Jays +1.5 (-190)
Game total	Over 7.5 runs (-105), Under 7.5 (-115)
Date/Time	April 21, 8:10 p.m. ET

About the Blue Jays (12-10 SU, 16-6 ATS, 9-13 o/u)

Toronto’s pitching staff has been very good to begin the campaign, but the group has been prone to giving up the long ball. They’ve coughed up 31 home runs through the first 22 games, with only the Tampa Bay Rays allowing more long balls to begin the season. However, the team’s 3.58 staff ERA ranks eighth in the majors, and its 1.11 WHIP is the fourth-best mark in baseball. Opponents are hitting just .215 against the Blue Jays, which also ranks fourth in the majors.

Toronto has scored four runs or fewer in four straight games and five of its last six, as the team continues to struggle to hit balls out of the park. With only 12 home runs to their credit through 22 games, only the Kansas City Royals have hit fewer homers (11) than the Blue Jays. Andrés Giménez leads the team with three long balls, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has just one in 22 contests, and Bo Bichette is still looking for his first.

About the Astros (10-11 SU, 11-10 ATS, 8-11-2 o/u)

The Astros have also been struggling offensively this season, as their .630 OPS ranks 26th in the majors. Averaging just 3.6 runs per game, it’s very evident Houston is missing the big bat of Kyle Tucker, who was traded to the Chicago Cubs last December. Slow starts from Yordan Alvarez, who is slashing .206/.310/.338 with just two homers, and Christian Walker (.513 OPS) are mostly to blame for the team’s sputtering production. One player who isn’t struggling, though, is veteran Jose Altuve, who leads the team in batting average (.302), hits (26), and home runs (three).

Houston’s pitching staff ranks in the top half of the league in many statistical categories, with flamethrower Josh Hader anchoring the bullpen by converting all six of his save opportunities to this point.

Probable starting pitchers

Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (2-1, 2.49 ERA, 7.11 K/9)

Gausman has been superb through four starts for the Blue Jays, holding the opposition to three earned runs or less in each of those outings. He threw six innings of two-run ball the last time he took the hill against the Atlanta Braves, and he’s averaged over a strikeout per inning over his last two starts. Gausman is susceptible to the long ball, as he’s allowed four homers to this point, including two against the Braves. And he’s one of the easiest pitchers in the league to steal bases off of, so bettors may want to comprehensively handicap the stolen bases betting markets for this matchup.

Houston: RHP Hunter Brown (2-1, 1.50 ERA, 8.25 K/9)

Brown has been impressive through four starts and is coming off back-to-back scoreless outings against the St. Louis Cardinals and Mariners.

His blazing fastball averages 97.2 mph, and hitters are batting just .077 against it this season. The 26-year-old right-hander isn’t just all about the heat, though, as he also mixes in five other pitches to keep hitters off balance. He excels at keeping the ball on the ground, as evidenced by his stellar 56.7% ground-ball rate, which ranks in the 87th percentile according to Baseball Savant. Brown made one start against the Blue Jays last year, holding them scoreless over six innings while striking out five.

Notable injuries

Outfielder Daulton Varsho (shoulder) and pitchers Ryan Burr (shoulder), Erik Swanson (forearm), Nick Sandlin (lat), and Max Scherzer (thumb) are all on the injured list for the Blue Jays.

The Astros are in relatively decent shape from a positional player perspective, but pitchers Spencer Arrighetti (thumb), Cristian Javier (elbow), Luis Garcia (elbow), and Lance McCullers Jr. (forearm) are on the shelf.

Weather

The retractable roof at Daikin Park is typically almost always closed during the hot summer months, but there’s a chance it could be open on Monday night, as forecasts are calling for temperatures around 24 C with a 40% chance of rain. Winds will be light and blowing out to left field at 7 mph if the roof is open.

Blue Jays vs. Astros betting trends

Houston is 4-1 SU in the past five meetings with Toronto.
The under is 7-3 in the past 10 meetings.
The under is 7-2 in Toronto’s nine away games this season.
The under is 4-1 in Houston’s last five games.

Blue Jays vs. Astros player prop trends

Brown has recorded over 17.5 outs in all four of his starts this season and is -210 to achieve the feat again on Monday. He exceeded this mark in 63% of his starts last year.
Brown has surrendered five hits or fewer in all four of his starts this year and in 16 of his last 20, dating back to last season. He’s around -155 to allow under 5.5 hits to Toronto.
Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena has hit safely in 11 straight games and is -220 to extend that streak to 12 games.
Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette has exceeded 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in five straight games and is -145 to beat that mark again vs. the Astros.

Blue Jays vs. Astros predictions

Alvarez over 0.5 strikeouts: -130 for one unit (best odds @ bet365). Gausman really has Alvarez’s number, striking him out seven times in 10 career matchups while holding the slugger hitless. Alvarez, one of the top power hitters in the league, has also struggled early this season, striking out in 19% of his at-bats, an increase of 4% when compared to last season. He’s slashing just .118/.158/.353 over the last seven days with two strikeouts, while Gausman is averaging over a strikeout per inning over his last two outings.
Jake Meyers over 0.5 stolen bases: +490 for a half unit (best odds @ FanDuel). Base stealers were successful on 20 of their 24 attempts against Gausman last season, making him one of the worst starting pitchers at holding runners on. Meyers, who leads the Astros with seven stolen bases on eight attempts, owns an impressive .354 on-base percentage this season, so we’re getting good value here at nearly +500 odds on him to get on and steal a bag in this spot. Meyers ranks in the 82nd percentile in sprint speed at 28.2 feet per second, according to Baseball Savant.