MLB Betting Preview (Aug. 16): Blue Jays vs. Cubs predictions
Photo credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
By Greg Warren
Aug 16, 2024, 10:00 EDTUpdated: Aug 16, 2024, 10:29 EDT
Fresh off a three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Angels, the Toronto Blue Jays will begin a three-game set with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Friday afternoon.
Toronto held Los Angeles to a total of five runs across three games earlier this week, receiving great starting pitching from the trio of Bowden Francis, Jose Berrios, and Kevin Gausman. This is the final leg of a six-game road trip for Toronto.
Chicago, meanwhile, was swept in a three-game series by the Guardians in Cleveland earlier this week. The Cubs had won four straight heading into that series with the American League Central-leading Guardians.
Both teams were off on Thursday, so the bullpens will be fresh on Friday afternoon.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Friday’s clash between the Blue Jays and Cubs courtesy of bet365:
Blue Jays vs. Cubs odds
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | +100 |
Cubs Moneyline Odds | -120 |
Runline Odds | Cubs -1.5 (+165), Blue Jays +1.5 (-200) |
Over/Under | Over 10.5 runs (-105), Under 10.5 runs (-115) |
Time/Date | Aug. 16, 2:20 p.m. ET |
TV | Broadcast: Apple TV |
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (57-64 SU, 61-60 ATS, 65-53-3 o/u)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone absolutely nuclear in the second half for the Blue Jays. The slugger has homered in back-to-back games to bring his total to 25 on the season, and he’s hitting a remarkable .457 with 11 home runs and 25 RBIs in the second half of the season. With warm temperatures expected and light winds blowing out at Wrigley on Friday afternoon, the conditions are favourable for Vladdy to have another big game, although oddsmakers have really shortened his odds during his recent tear, not leaving much value.
Rookie infielder Will Wagner received a day off Wednesday after erupting in his first two MLB games for five hits in eight at-bats with three RBIs. It’s likely he draws back into the lineup on Friday.
Betting Chicago Cubs (59-63 SU, 60-62 ATS, 53-65-4 o/u)
The Cubs are 5 1/2 games back of the final National League Wild Card spot entering play Friday. They have a slim 2.8% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs’ projections, but it’s enough to give them hope and play some inspired baseball in this series with Toronto. Suffering a second consecutive sweep would likely all but end their playoff aspirations.
Offensively, this team has struggled to put runs on the board this season, averaging just 4.2 runs per game (same as the Blue Jays). However, its pitching staff has done a good job of holding them in games. Cubs starting pitchers, led by Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Javier Assad, have produced a solid 3.83 ERA (seventh in the majors). Friday’s starting pitcher, Kyle Hendricks, has been the weak link, posting an ugly 6.60 ERA.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Yariel Rodriguez (1-5, 3.60 ERA, 9.36 K/9, 1.30 WHIP)
Rodriguez is really starting to look comfortable on the mound, holding the opposition to just one earned run over his last two starts against the Oakland Athletics and New York Yankees. He’s excelling at limiting hard contact to the opposition, ranking in the 92nd percentile in barrel %, according to Baseball Savant, and he has a 34% whiff rate on his slider. The Cuban rookie will have the element of surprise in his favour, as Isaac Paredes is the only Cubs player with previous at-bats off him, going 0-for-3.
Chicago: RHP Kyle Hendricks (3-10, 6.60 ERA, 6.41 K/9, 1.45 WHIP)
The veteran right-hander has struggled mightily this season, but his last two starts haven’t been too bad. Hendricks allowed two earned runs over six innings in his last start against the Minnesota Twins and the Cincinnati Reds tagged him for three runs over five innings in his previous start. Left-handed hitters are absolutely crushing him this year, boasting a .904 OPS while accounting for 12 of the 18 homers he’s surrendered.
Weather
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 29 C and a 40% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon in Chicago. Light winds will be blowing out to centre field at Wrigley Field at 7 mph.
MLB betting trends
- The Blue Jays have covered the runline in 27 of their last 40 away games.
- The Blue Jays have played over the total in 34 of their last 48 games.
- The Cubs have only hit the team total over in 20 of their last 51 home games.
MLB player prop trends
- Cubs outfielder Ian Happ is taking a six-game hitting streak into action. He’s -210 to get a hit.
- As previously mentioned, Guerrero Jr. has homered in back-to-back games. He’s +250 to go deep.
- Hendricks has recorded four or more strikeouts in three straight starts. He’s -105 to record over 3.5 strikeouts.
- Guerrero Jr. has exceeded his line of over 1.5 total bases in three straight games and five of his last seven. He’s -155 to record over 1.5 total bases.
Blue Jays vs. Cubs predictions
- Blue Jays moneyline – +100. This seems like a great spot to back the surging Jays at enticing even-money odds. They have a strong advantage in the starting pitching matchup and are riding some offensive momentum after averaging 6.3 runs per game in their series with the Angels. Oddsmakers have set the total high at 10.5 runs, so they’re expecting Toronto’s bats to stay hot in this one.
- Blue Jays over 4.5 runs (-115). The weather conditions are going to be favourable for hitters at Wrigley Field and that’s bad news for Hendricks, who is prone to giving up the long ball (he’s been tagged for at least one home run in each of his last four starts). Back the Jays to put at least five runs on the board, doing most of their damage against the Cubs’ soft-tossing righty.