MLB betting preview (Aug. 18): Blue Jays vs. Pirates predictions
Photo credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
By Greg Warren
Aug 18, 2025, 13:00 EDTUpdated: Aug 18, 2025, 20:16 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will open a three-game series at PNC Park on Monday evening against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Toronto is coming off a solid 4-2 homestand, which included series wins over the Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers.
Pittsburgh is in awful form right now, dropping seven of its last eight games.
Let’s take a look at the game odds for Monday’s series opener between the Blue Jays and Pirates courtesy of bet365.
Blue Jays vs. Pirates odds
Blue Jays moneyline odds | -110 |
Pirates moneyline odds | -110 |
Runline odds | Pirates -1.5 (+190), Blue Jays +1.5 (-230) |
Game total | Over 7 runs (-110), Under 7 runs (-110) |
Date/time | Aug. 18, 6:40 p.m. ET |
About the Blue Jays (73-52 SU, 74-51 ATS, 68-53-4 o/u)
The Blue Jays find themselves in a great position heading into this road trip, which will also include three games in Miami against the Marlins. They hold a five-game advantage over the Boston Red Sox for the top spot in the American League East and a half-game lead over the Detroit Tigers for the best record in the AL.
Toronto has been an offensive juggernaut since the All-Star break, leading the majors in team batting average (.303), on-base percentage (.366), slugging percentage (.511), and OPS (.877), while averaging 6.03 runs per game in that 29-game span.
About the Pirates (52-73 SU, 66-59 ATS, 49-69-7 o/u)
No other team has scored fewer runs (3.5 per game) than the Pirates this season. They own the worst slugging percentage (.346) and OPS (.649) in the majors, and one of their top offensive players, Oneil Cruz, is on the injured list with a concussion. Cruz leads the team with 18 home runs and 34 stolen bases, so his absence won’t bode well for the Pirates in this series.
Their pitching staff ranks in the middle of the pack in most statistical categories, but their bullpen has struggled to hold leads late in games, converting just 25 of its 46 save opportunities. To make matters worse, the team’s closer, David Bednar, was traded away to the New York Yankees just prior to the trade deadline at the end of July.
Entering play Monday with the third-worst record in the National League, the Pirates have absolutely nothing to play for down the stretch.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (8-9, 3.79 ERA, 8.71 K/9)
Gausman has been a road warrior for Toronto, posting a 4-5 record with a 3.48 ERA while holding opponents to a microscopic .188 batting average over 12 away starts this season. He’s also been great over his last two starts, allowing just three earned runs over his last 14 innings pitched while striking out 11. Four players on Pittsburgh’s roster—Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham, and Bryan Reynolds—have previous experience against the veteran righty, boasting a combined .364/.407/.655 slash line with a 1.061 OPS over 55 at-bats.
Pittsburgh: RHP Paul Skenes (7-9, 2.13 ERA, 10.09 K/9)
If you’re wondering why this game is a pick’em, it’s because Pittsburgh is sending its crown jewel to the mound on Monday night. Skenes, currently the favourite at most online sportsbooks to win the NL Cy Young Award with around -450 odds, has continued to dominate in his first full season in the majors. He’s been downright untouchable at home, posting a 4-4 record with a 1.70 ERA while holding the opposition to a .191 batting average across nearly 69 innings. His rising four-seamer is averaging a blazing 98.2 mph this season, and he also boasts six off-speed pitches that are all elite. The overwhelming majority of players on Toronto’s roster have never faced him before (only Ty France has previous at-bats against him), so it could be a very frustrating night for the Blue Jays.
Notable injuries
Outfielder Anthony Santander (shoulder), pitcher Yimi Garcia (elbow), pitcher Alek Manoah (elbow), pitcher Bowden Francis (shoulder), and pitcher Shane Bieber (elbow) are on the injured list for Toronto.
Pitcher Jared Jones (elbow) and Cruz (concussion) are the big names on the injured list for the Pirates.
Weather
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 23 C and clear skies this evening in Pittsburgh. Winds will blow in from left field at 6 mph.
Blue Jays vs. Pirates betting trends
- The Pirates are 37-26 on the runline at home this season.
- The Pirates have the second-best under record in the majors (49-69-7 o/u) this season.
- The Blue Jays have the best record on the runline (74-51) in the majors.
- Toronto is 9-1 in the past 10 meetings between these two teams.
- Toronto is an impressive 24-12 in interleague games this season.
Blue Jays vs. Pirates player prop trends
- Gausman has recorded at least 18 outs in five straight starts, averaging 19.8 per outing during that span. He’s -130 to record over 17.5 outs.
- George Springer has scored at least one run in 11 straight games and is -105 to plate at least once.
- Skenes has recorded eight or more strikeouts in three of his last four starts and has averaged 6.6 per game this season. His line is set at 6.5 strikeouts (over +105) against Toronto, which strikes out the least in baseball (6.7 times per game).
Blue Jays vs. Pirates best bet
- Kevin Gausman over 17.5 outs recorded: -130 @ bet365 for one unit. Props on Skenes are going to be a popular play by the public on Monday night, but I actually think his counterpart, Gausman, is in a better position to nail the over on his outs recorded prop. As previously mentioned, Gausman has thrown six or more innings in five straight starts, and now he’ll have the chance to feast on one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. Additionally, the Blue Jays used five relievers on Sunday, so you can bet manager John Schneider will be looking for a lengthy start from his veteran in an attempt to get his relievers some rest.