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MLB Betting Preview (Aug. 19): Reds vs. Blue Jays predictions
Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz (44) steals third in the sixth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Great American Ball Park
Photo credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
Greg Warren
Aug 19, 2024, 10:00 EDTUpdated: Aug 19, 2024, 10:14 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays return home to Rogers Centre on Monday for the opener of a three-game interleague series with the Cincinnati Reds after a successful 4-2 road trip.
After sweeping the Angels in Los Angeles early last week, the Blue Jays salvaged the final contest of a three-game series with the Chicago Cubs on Sunday by a score of 1-0. They’ll now play seven games at home this week, with the aforementioned Angels arriving in Toronto later this week for four games.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, suffered a three-game sweep at the hands of the Kansas City Royals over the weekend. The Reds completed a three-game sweep of their own in the series prior against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Monday’s series opener between the Reds and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365:

Reds vs. Blue Jays odds

Reds Moneyline Odds
+145
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds
-170
Runline Odds
Blue Jays -1.5 (+120), Reds +1.5 (-140)
Over/Under
Over 8 runs (-120), Under 8 runs (+100)
Time/Date
Aug. 19, 7:07 p.m. ET
TV
Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+

Betting Cincinnati Reds (60-64 SU, 67-57 ATS, 56-62-6 o/u)

The Reds had been crawling their way up the National League Wild Card standings prior to this past weekend’s disappointing series with the Royals, in which they were outscored 28-3. They’re now six games back of the Atlanta Braves for the final NL playoff spot, and FanGraphs’ projections are giving them a 1.3% chance of claiming a postseason berth heading into this series.
Keep in mind that this team was a very popular pick at most online sportsbooks to win the NL Central Division this season and to also make the playoffs, but injuries/suspensions have ravaged the roster throughout the season, spoiling the potential of the young squad.
One player to keep an eye on from a betting perspective is shortstop Elly De La Cruz, who is having an incredible season with 121 hits, 21 homers, and a MLB-leading 59 stolen bases.

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (58-66 SU, 64-60 ATS, 66-55-3 o/u)

Joey Loperfido provided all the offence the Blue Jays needed on Sunday, launching his first big-league homer in the 1-0 victory over the Cubs. But perhaps more importantly, Toronto received some outstanding starting pitching over the weekend, which gave the beleaguered bullpen a much-needed breather. Everyone should be available out of the bullpen on Monday, which should allow starting pitcher Kevin Gausman to relax and put together a solid outing.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is starting to cool off slightly over the last seven days following an absolute tear after the All-Star break. Vladdy is hitting. 269 with a pair of homers over the last week, but pitchers are being awfully careful and pitching around him, when possible.
Will Wagner also continues to impress since making his big-league debut last week, hitting .533 with three RBIs across his first five career games.

Probable starting pitchers

Cincinnati: TBD
Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (11-8, 4.20 ERA, 8.14 K/9, 1.26 WHIP)
Gausman threw seven shutout innings while scattering six hits with five strikeouts last time he took the mound against the Los Angeles Angels. He was also very good in his start before that, holding the big bats of the Baltimore Orioles to two runs over eight innings of work. However, bettors should know that Gausman is one of the worst pitchers in the league at limiting stolen bases, holding a -10 pitcher base advances prevented mark, trailing only Baltimore Corbin Burnes (-17) in all of baseball.

Weather

It should be an ideal evening for outdoor baseball in Toronto, with temperatures expected around 20 C under sunny skies. Winds will blow in from left field at 19 mph.

MLB betting trends

  • The Blue Jays have played over the total in 35 of their last 51 games.
  • The Blue Jays have covered the runline in 14 of their last 21 games.
  • The Reds have covered the runline in 33 of their last 50 road games.

MLB player prop trends

  • Gausman has done a great job pitching late into games recently, recording 19 or more outs in five of his last six starts. He’s -120 to record over 18.5 outs. However, he’s also issued too many free passes lately, walking two or more batters in five consecutive starts and eight of his last 10. He’s -130 to record over 1.5 walks.
  • Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson is riding a four-game hitting streak into action and has hit safely in eight of his last 10 games. He’s -250 to get a hit.
  • Although he’s cooled off slightly over the last week or so, Guerrero Jr. loves hitting at Rogers Centre, producing an incredible .342/.414/.559 slash line with 12 home runs and 41 RBIs this season.

Reds vs. Blue Jays predictions

  • There’s one very obvious mismatch in this game, and that’s De La Cruz against Gausman on the basepaths. If the speedy Cincinnati infielder reaches base against Gausman, it’s almost a given he’ll steal at least one base against him. Don’t overthink this one. You have the fastest player in the majors up against Gausman, who is the second-worst starting pitcher in the league at limiting stolen bases. Unfortunately, the oddsmakers are also aware of this mismatch and are offering very short odds (around +115 if you shop around) on a De La Cruz stolen base. Get the best price you can and lock it in.
  • As of Monday morning, the Reds still haven’t announced who their starting pitcher will be for this matchup. That’s especially troubling considering their bullpen sustained a heavy workload over the weekend while the team was completely dismantled by the Royals. There isn’t much value in taking Toronto to win outright at around -170 odds in this spot, but consider taking the Jays on the runline (-1.5) at plus money odds with a resurgent Gausman on the mound.

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