MLB Betting Preview (Aug. 20): Reds vs. Blue Jays predictions
Photo credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
By Greg Warren
Aug 20, 2024, 11:00 EDTUpdated: Aug 20, 2024, 11:36 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will try to get back in the win column on Tuesday after falling 6-3 to the Cincinnati Reds as big favourites (around -170) in the series opener on Monday.
TJ Friedl homered and collected three hits to help the Reds snap a three-game losing streak and get back moving towards the .500 mark to keep their playoff aspirations alive.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. launched his team-leading 26th homer of the campaign in a losing cause.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Tuesday’s clash between the Reds and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365:
Reds vs. Blue Jays odds
Reds Moneyline Odds | +120 |
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | -140 |
Runline Odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+150), Reds +1.5 (-180) |
Over/Under | Over 8 runs (-115), Under 8 runs (-105) |
Time/Date | Aug. 20, 7:07 p.m. ET |
TV | Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+ |
Betting Cincinnati Reds (61-64 SU, 68-57 ATS, 57-62-6 o/u)
The Reds really needed a win in Monday’s series opener and they got it behind an impressive MLB debut from right-hander Julian Aguiar, who threw four innings of two-run ball while striking out two Blue Jays. The 23-year-old got the call from the minors to replace injured right-hander Hunter Greene in the rotation after he made 22 starts at Triple-A.
One development for bettors to monitor heading into Tuesday’s game is the state of the Cincinnati bullpen, which has sustained a heavy workload lately. The team used five relievers on Monday, so starting pitcher Carson Spiers will be counted on for some length in this spot.
The Reds are 5 1/2 games back of the Atlanta Braves for the final National League Wild Card spot entering play Tuesday, and have a 1.9% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs’ projections.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (58-67 SU, 64-61 ATS, 67-55-3 o/u)
The Blue Jays have been painful to watch this season, but the outstanding recent play of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has kept fans and bettors interested in the team. Vladdy remained hot with a solo homer in the first inning Monday, giving him 13 long balls at Rogers Centre, where he’s slashing a ridiculous .342/.416/.569 this season. He’s hitting an even better .406 with a 1.339 OPS over the last 30 days.
After coughing up another home run on Monday night, Toronto’s pitching staff has now surrendered a MLB-leading 173 bombs this season. The team’s shaky bullpen has accounted for 72 of those blasts, the most in baseball by a relief corps.
Probable starting pitchers
Cincinnati: RHP Carson Spiers (4-4, 4.55 ERA, 8.40 K/9, 1.29 WHIP)
Spiers, who is also used out of the bullpen, will be making his ninth start of the season for the Reds. He hasn’t pitched since last Wednesday, when he gave up two runs on six hits over 2 2/3 innings of work as a reliever against the St. Louis Cardinals. In his last start, he was knocked around for eight earned runs in five innings by the Milwaukee Brewers.
Toronto: RHP Jose Berrios (11-9, 3.85 ERA, 6.98 K/9, 1.18 WHIP)
Berrios allowed one run on two hits over seven innings against Oakland last time out and has surrendered one earned run or less in three of his last four outings. However, he’s very prone to giving up the long ball, allowing 27 home runs across his 25 starts this season. It’s also important to note that Berrios has been dominant at home, posting a sparkling 2.83 ERA while holding opponents to a .218 batting average across 12 starts at Rogers Centre.
Weather
This game should be played outdoors, with first pitch temperatures expected around 19 C under clear skies. Winds will blow in from left field at 16 mph.
MLB betting trends
- The Blue Jays have played over the total in 36 of their last 52 games.
- The Reds have covered the runline in 34 of their last 51 road games.
MLB player prop trends
- Spiers has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances and nine of his last 10. He’s -190 to record four or more strikeouts.
- Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson will carry a five-game hitting streak into action Tuesday. He’s -240 to get a hit.
- Guerrero Jr. has homered in three of his last six games. He’s +400 to go deep.
Reds vs. Blue Jays predictions
- Toronto to lead after five innings: -110. Berrios has been terrific over his last two starts and he has the edge in this starting pitching matchup over Spiers. The Blue Jays’ bullpen has proven it can’t be trusted all season long, so back Toronto on the five-inning line instead in this spot.
- Keep riding Guerrero’s Jr.’s hot bat and back him to record over 1.5 total bases at -120.